MI IPL 2026 playoff qualification scenarios: Time is running out for Mumbai Indians after Chepauk collapse

Mumbai Indians’ campaign took another decisive hit as they slumped to an eight-wicket defeat against Chennai Super Kings at Chepauk, a result that has pushed them to the brink of elimination. After cruising past 100 in the 11th over, MI once again imploded, collapsing to 159/7 despite a fluent start from Suryakumar Yadav and a fighting 57 from Naman Dhir. CSK chased the target with ease, led by Ruturaj Gaikwad’s composed unbeaten 67. The loss not only exposed MI’s recurring batting issues but has now left their playoff hopes hanging by the thinnest of threads.

Mumbai Indians' current points table standing

• Matches played: 9
• Wins: 2
• Losses: 7
• Points: 4
• Net Run Rate: -0.803
• Position: 9th

Mumbai Indians are languishing near the bottom of the table with just two wins from nine matches, and their negative NRR only compounds the damage. With very little margin left, they are already in deep trouble.

IPL 2026 playoff qualification benchmark

Historically, the qualification cutoff in the IPL has remained consistent.

• 14 points (7 wins): Minimum realistic cutoff
• 16 points (8 wins): Safe qualification zone

The only exception came in 2019, when Sunrisers Hyderabad qualified with 12 points — the only instance of a team progressing with fewer than 14 points and more losses than wins.

In most seasons, 7 wins keeps you alive, 8 wins puts you in control.

What Mumbai Indians need from here

• Matches remaining: 5
• Current points: 4
• To reach 14 points: Need 5 wins from 5 matches
• To reach 16 points: Need 6 wins (not possible anymore)

Mumbai Indians now require a perfect run - 5 wins from 5 games - just to stay in contention for 14 points. One more loss and they are almost out.

The big problem: The misfiring middle-order

MI's run through the season has been a campaign that never found stability. Seven defeats in nine matches and what stands out is the nature of these losses. Several have come from winning positions - including the latest collapse against CSK where they went from a strong platform to a below-par total. The middle order has repeatedly failed to convert starts, and the inability to accelerate in the final overs has hurt them badly.