The Miami Dolphins face the second-hardest schedule in the NFL for 2026, according to analyst Warren Sharp. This challenging lineup has led to projections of the Dolphins picking first or second in the 2027 NFL draft.
Key points
Miami Dolphins have the second-hardest schedule in the NFL for 2026
Analysis by data analyst Warren Sharp
Recent mock drafts predict Dolphins picking No. 1 or No. 2 in 2027
Only the Cardinals have a tougher schedule based on expected win total of opponents in 2026.
This is important because some pooh-pooh strength of schedule data based on total wins of opponents from the previous season.
Apr 23, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; San Diego State Aztecs defensive back Chris Johnson is selected by the Miami Dolphins as the number 27 pick during the 2026 NFL Draft at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Sep 6, 2025; Pullman, Washington, USA; San Diego State Aztecs cornerback Chris Johnson (1) celebrates after a play against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images
Q&A
Why is the Miami Dolphins' 2026 schedule considered so difficult?
The Miami Dolphins' 2026 schedule is deemed the second-hardest in the NFL due to the strength of their opponents.
What impact does a tough schedule have on the Miami Dolphins' draft position?
A challenging schedule may lead to poor performance, resulting in the Dolphins potentially picking first or second in the 2027 NFL draft.
Who analyzed the Miami Dolphins' schedule for 2026?
Data analyst Warren Sharp provided the assessment that the Dolphins have the second-hardest schedule in the NFL for 2026.
What are the implications of the Dolphins' tough schedule for their 2026 season?
The implications include increased difficulty in securing wins, which could affect their overall performance and future draft picks.
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Aug 26, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs cornerback Chris Johnson (21) celebrates after a stop against the Ohio Bobcats during the first half at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 16, 2023; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Oregon State Beavers wide receiver Silas Bolden (7) is pushed out of bounds by San Diego State Aztecs corner back Chris Johnson (21) during the second half at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 5, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs cornerback Chris Johnson (1) warms up against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors before the game at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Abe Arredondo-Imagn Images
Feb 26, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; San Diego State defensive back Chris Johnson (DB17) speaks to members of the media during the NFL Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images
Feb 27, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; San Diego State defensive back Chris Johnson (DB17) during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Feb 27, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; San Diego State defensive back Chris Johnson (DB17) during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Feb 27, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; San Diego State defensive back Chris Johnson (DB17) during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
1 / 9
Photos of Dolphins' second first round pick cornerback Chris Johnson
Apr 23, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; San Diego State Aztecs defensive back Chris Johnson is selected by the Miami Dolphins as the number 27 pick during the 2026 NFL Draft at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
1 / 9
Photos of Dolphins' second first round pick cornerback Chris Johnson
Apr 23, 2026; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; San Diego State Aztecs defensive back Chris Johnson is selected by the Miami Dolphins as the number 27 pick during the 2026 NFL Draft at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
2 / 9
Photos of Dolphins' second first round pick cornerback Chris Johnson
Sep 6, 2025; Pullman, Washington, USA; San Diego State Aztecs cornerback Chris Johnson (1) celebrates after a play against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. Mandatory Credit: James Snook-Imagn Images
3 / 9
Photos of Dolphins' second first round pick cornerback Chris Johnson
Aug 26, 2023; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs cornerback Chris Johnson (21) celebrates after a stop against the Ohio Bobcats during the first half at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
4 / 9
Photos of Dolphins' second first round pick cornerback Chris Johnson
Sep 16, 2023; Corvallis, Oregon, USA; Oregon State Beavers wide receiver Silas Bolden (7) is pushed out of bounds by San Diego State Aztecs corner back Chris Johnson (21) during the second half at Reser Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
5 / 9
Photos of Dolphins' second first round pick cornerback Chris Johnson
Oct 5, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs cornerback Chris Johnson (1) warms up against the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors before the game at Snapdragon Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Abe Arredondo-Imagn Images
6 / 9
Photos of Dolphins' second first round pick cornerback Chris Johnson
Feb 26, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; San Diego State defensive back Chris Johnson (DB17) speaks to members of the media during the NFL Combine at the Indiana Convention Center. Mandatory Credit: Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images
7 / 9
Photos of Dolphins' second first round pick cornerback Chris Johnson
Feb 27, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; San Diego State defensive back Chris Johnson (DB17) during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
8 / 9
Photos of Dolphins' second first round pick cornerback Chris Johnson
Feb 27, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; San Diego State defensive back Chris Johnson (DB17) during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
9 / 9
Photos of Dolphins' second first round pick cornerback Chris Johnson
Feb 27, 2026; Indianapolis, IN, USA; San Diego State defensive back Chris Johnson (DB17) during the NFL Scouting Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Sharp looked at Miami's opponents and created a chart showing only the Jets (twice) and Raiders as opponents they should be favored against.
A record of 6-11 or better in 2026 would be an outstanding achievement from the rebuilding Dolphins this season.
Most experts are calling for 4-13 or perhaps 5-12.
The official NFL schedule, with dates and times, should be released the week of Wednesday, May 13, although the league has suggested it could be pushed back into the next week, if necessary.
In looking at Sharp's analysis from last year, 9 of 12 toughest and easiest schedule predictions played out accurately, as the toughest schedule teams went under betting line expectations and the easiest schedule teams went over betting line expectations.
Malik Willis is introduced to Miami Dolphins media
Malik Willis is introduced to Miami Dolphins media
Miami had, statistically, one of the easiest schedules in the NFL last season.
But that bubble burst.
Mike McDaniel was fired after Miami went 7-10, with bad losses to opponents like the Panthers and Browns.
Sharp says that in 2026, the Browns have the fourth-easiest schedule Jets have the NFL's fifth-easiest schedule. That could come into play in draft order.
"This is terrible news for the Jets," sports analyst Jason McIntyre of The Herd posted on social media. "Dolphins weaker roster and easier schedule = Arch (or best QB at 1)."
Arch is, of course, Texas quarterback Arch Manning.
Here are the media organizations that, at this time, are projecting a Top 2 pick for the Dolphins in 2027: ESPN, The Athletic, Sports Illustrated, CBS, PFF, Fox Sports, Tankathon, SB Nation, Athlon and Bleacher Report.
A lot can happen between now and the next NFL Draft.
