Miami Heat-Charlotte Hornets NBA Play-In game preview & odds

The NBA Playoffs are set to start with the play-in on Tuesday, April 14. The first game will be between two Eastern Conference rivals: the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat. Both have experienced the play-in game several times since it was implemented in 2020, but the Heat have played more relevant basketball in the 2020s than the Hornets.

Still, the Hornets look like a team that can make noise in the playoffs. They take the most shots from behind the arc (1,343) while having the third-highest percentage (37.8%), and they also have loads of young talent in their lineup.

The Heat, meanwhile, are in no-man’s land after trading franchise star Jimmy Butler. They average the second most points in a game (121), but they’ve been 5-10 since starting March with a six-game winning streak. Still, it’ll be interesting to see how the matchups pan out.

More: 2026 NBA Play-In Tournament TV schedule, full list of games & tip times

Point Guard: Lamelo Ball vs. Davion Mitchell

6. LaMelo Ball

LaMelo Ball has lived up to his draft stock with the Charlotte Hornets. He’s been a dynamic scorer, good playmaker, and high-volume shooter. Although he’s had a down season compared to his past three seasons, averaging 20.7 points, 4.8 points, and 7.1 assists, that’s due to the added talent on the team. He’s not great defensively, but his offense is enough to give guards nightmares.

Mitchell, meanwhile, is very different. He’s a very good defensive guard, but that’s all he has over Ball. Mitchell averages 9.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. While he’s shooting better from behind the arc than Ball (39.5% vs. 36.8% for Ball), he has nowhere near the offensive impact as Ball.

Winner: LaMelo Ball

Shooting Guard: Kon Knueppel vs. Tyler Herro

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Here’s where the real fun begins. Kon Kneuppel is a stud as a rookie. He’s one of the best shooters in the game already, making the most three-pointers (270) by any rookie in NBA regular-season history. He’s cooled off a tad, failing to get more than 20 points in the past nine games. Still, he’s earned 18.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game with a 47.5% field goal percentage and a blistering 42.5% three-point percentage.

However, Tyler Herro is no slouch either. He’s only played 33 games due to ankle injuries, and he’s had a down year as well, with 20.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. Still, with his postseason experience, he will be relied upon as one of the Heat’s top options.

Still, I expect the rookie to be a better contributor in this game. Knueppel is passable defensively, while Herro is below average. Knueppel is also incredibly efficient, while Herro is more of a volume shooter.

Winner: Kon Knueppel

Small Forward: Brandon Miller vs. Norman Powell

This one is the toughest matchup of the bunch. Brandon Miller is the leading scorer for the Hornets. The third-year player is quickly becoming one of the best small forwards in the game, scoring 20.2 points while grabbing 4.9 rebounds and dishing 3.3 assists per game. He is shooting 43.5% from the field as well.

However, Norman Powell is also the leading scorer for the Heat. He averages 21.7 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game. He’s not much of a rebounder or playmaker, but he’s shooting more efficiently than Miller (47.0% from the field), so he gets the slight edge.

Winner: Norman Powell

Power Forward: Miles Bridges vs. Andrew Wiggins

This is another tough battle, but not as even as the small forward battle. Miles Bridges, despite a major off-the-court controversy, is a quality player on the court. He’s a great slasher and ball-handler, with 17.1 points per game, 5.8 rebounds per game, and 3.2 assists per game. He’s not much of a three-point shooter (33.3% from the field) but he will get his due cutting to the basket for put-back opportunities.

Andrew Wiggins, meanwhile, has faded down the stretch. He has 15.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game, but in the past three games, he’s had 20 points in total. It could be a usage issue, but it doesn’t fare well for his future outlook. Wiggins is better defensively, but I question his offensive output in this series more than Bridges. As a result, I think Bridges gets the edge.

Winner: Miles Bridges

Center: Moussa Diabaté vs. Bam Adebayo

This one is extremely lopsided. Moussa Diabate emerged as the starting center for the Hornets after they traded Mark Williams to the Phoenix Suns, but he’s averaging just 7.9 points per game. He still has 8.7 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game while shooting 63.1% from the field, but he’s your standard paint beast that’s good at defense.

Bam Adebayo is a lot more than that. Say what you will about his 83-point game, but the fact he has the offensive chops to get 83 points is astonishing. He has 20.1 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 3.2 assists per game this season. He’s averaged over 20 points per game for the first time since the 2022 season, and he’s still one of the best defensive centers in the game. He’ll be the biggest reason the Heat win this game if they earn the victory.

Winner: Bam Adebayo

Hornets vs. Heat Bench

It’s easy to say the Heat have the clear advantage in the bench. They’re ranked No. 4 in bench points per game (43.8), while the Hornets are at No. 19 (36.2). The Heat have double-digit scorers like Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kel’el Ware off the bench, while the Hornets are led by Coby White, who’s averaging 15.6 points per game.

However, bench net rating is a better indicator of a team’s bench quality. Net rating is basically offensive rating minus defensive rating, and bench net rating applies to the bench. The Hornets have the No. 4 bench net rating (3.6) while the Heat have the No. 10 bench net rating (-1.4).

As a result, I believe the Hornets will come away with victory. Due to the quality of their starting lineup, plus their bench being more efficient, the Hornets have the edge over the Heat.

This game will take place at 7:30 p.m. ET. Whoever wins this game will face the loser of the 7/8 play-in game for a chance at the final playoff spot and a first-round bout with the No. 1 Detroit Pistons.