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MLB Best Home Run Bets For April 22, 2026âBaldwin And Merrill
TL;DR
The MLB home run betting record stands at 3-14, with a chance to improve on April 22, 2026. Gamblers have not lost money betting on the suggested picks, but they also haven't made a profit.
Key points
- MLB home run betting record is 3-14
- Gamblers have not lost or won money overall
- Drake Baldwin is a key player for home run bets
- Opportunity to end a nine-pick losing streak
- Clean slate for betting on April 22, 2026
Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin has pristine batted-ball data.
Getty Images
Hopefully, a few days off will be the elixir to turn around the recent MLB best home run bets drought. The season record for home run props is 3-14, with one no bet for a player who didnât start.
Despite the lackluster record, gamblers and readers who bet $100 on each of the suggested best home run bets havenât lost money. At the same time, they havenât won money. Itâs back to square one, and with a clean slate, tonight is an opportunity to snap a nine-pick losing streak and rebuild a profit for the season.
Two young left-handed batters have mouthwatering matchups to hit a home run. Both players also have compelling odds for their home run bets, making their home run props the best available home run wagers for Wednesday night.
MLB Best Home Run Bets
Drake Baldwin (Atlanta Braves - C)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+470) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Drake Baldwin has pristine batted-ball data. Among 277 qualified batters in 2026, Baldwin is tied for 15th in barrels per plate appearance rate (11.7%), 28th in barrels per batted-ball-event rate (16.3%), 17th in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.6 mph), tied for 103rd in maximum exit velocity (110.2 mph) and tied for 25th in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (42.5%). Baldwinâs maximum exit velocity is the only non-elite mark among his noted batted-ball data, and he doesnât need to be among MLBâs best at hitting the ball the hardest on a single batted-ball event to be a high-end power hitter.
Baldwinâs top-shelf batted-ball data has translated to homers. Baldwin has hit six homers in 24 games and 111 plate appearances this year, and heâs hit 25 home runs in 148 games and 557 plate appearances in his career. The 25-year-old catcher has hit 19 of his career 25 homers against right-handed pitching, including four of his six home runs this year against righties.
Baldwin has a dreamy matchup to hit a home run tonight. Among 265 pitchers with at least 10 innings pitched this year, Zack Littellâs 3.32 home runs allowed per nine innings (HR/9) is the second-highest mark. Washingtonâs relievers are also tied for the second-highest home runs allowed per nine innings at 1.68 HR/9 this season.
Littellâs homer problems arenât a blip on the radar, either. Heâs yielded 1.94 HR/9 and 21 home runs to 399 left-handed batters since last season. As a result, Baldwin has an excellent chance to hit a home run tonight, and his +490 odds offered at FanDuel Sportsbook are a bargain.
Jackson Merrill has a fantastic matchup and ideal hitting conditions to hit a home run tonight.
Getty Images
Jackson Merrill (San Diego Padres - OF)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+390) at FanDuel Sportsbook
Jackson Merrill has hit only three home runs in 23 games and 97 plate appearances this year. However, all three of his homers are against right-handed pitching, and he faces a right-handed starting pitcher tonight.
Merrillâs batted-ball data is better than one might expect for a player with just three homers so far in 2026. Among 277 qualified batters in 2026, Merrill is tied for 39th in barrels per plate appearance rate (9.3%), tied for 47th in barrels per batted-ball-event rate (13.4%), tied for 23rd in fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity (97.2 mph) and tied for 171st in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (31.3%). Merrill has hit the ball plenty hard enough to reach the seats, but he hasnât quite locked in on the launch-angle sweet spot.
Tonight is a get-right opportunity for Merrill. Among 115 pitchers with at least 20 innings pitched this year, Tomoyuki Suganoâs 2.18 HR/9 allowed is the fourth-highest mark. The 36-year-old righty has allowed 22 home runs and 2.09 HR/9 to 404 left-handed batters since coming to MLB last season.
Merrill also has favorable park factors tonight. Coors Field is tied for the 10th-highest park factor for home runs (107) from 2024 through 2026. Finally, the weather forecast could help Merrillâs pull power for home runs, as the winds are projected to be 15 to 20 mph from left to right, but they may blow out to right field. Gamblers are getting a lot of bang for their buck at +390 odds for Merrillâs home run prop.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com
Q&A
What is the current record for MLB home run bets?
The current record for MLB home run bets is 3 wins and 14 losses.
How much money have gamblers lost or won betting on home run props?
Gamblers who bet $100 on each suggested home run prop have neither lost nor won money overall.
Who are the key players mentioned for home run bets on April 22, 2026?
Drake Baldwin and Merrill are highlighted as key players for home run bets on April 22, 2026.
What opportunity do gamblers have on April 22, 2026, for home run bets?
Gamblers have the opportunity to snap a nine-pick losing streak and potentially rebuild a profit.
