MLB picks, predictions for Friday: Expert's best bets includes Reds vs. Astros, Guardians vs. Twins

Reds money line vs. Astros (-134, FanDuel)

The Reds are reeling. They're coming off getting swept by the Pirates and Cubs over the last seven games. Four of those losses were by a single run and those were both on the road. Now, they're back at the friendly confines of Great American Ballpark.

The Reds are hitting the ball, especially off right-handers, and the Astros aren't, especially off left-handers. Baseball is about matchups, and Cincy has the edges here. Houston starter Mike Burrows is 0-3 with a 6.23 ERA on the road, so the Reds should score. Both these bullpens stink lately, so the edge goes to Cincy's bats and to tough lefty Nick Lodolo, who makes his season debut with no limitations.

Marlins-Nationals Under 4.5 runs in first 5 innings (-118, BetMGM)

Robby Snelling makes his MLB debut for the Marlins; he owned a 1.86 ERA in Triple-A and last year posted a 2.51 ERA in 25 starts. The left-hander who throws 99 mph is ready for his debut and gets a favorable matchup vs. a subpar lineup vs. left-handed pitchers.

On the flip side, fellow lefty Foster Griffin has a 2.27 ERA in seven starts for the Nationals, and the Marlins are even worse at hitting left-handers than Washington. These teams average a combined 5.5 runs per game in the first five innings, but the pitching matchups and splits favor slow starts for the bats.

Guardians money line vs. Twins (-144, FanDuel)

Parker Messick nearly tossed a no-hitter against the Braves and blanked the Dodgers for six frames. He also gave up four runs to the Athletics his last outing. He's 3-0 with a 1.72 ERA in five starts under the lights and Minnesota has had issues with southpaws, so Messick can keep that run going.

Cleveland also faces a left-hander, but its team OPS is 100 points higher against them the last two weeks. Twins starter Connor Prielipp has allowed two runs in each of his three starts, each going only 4-5 innings. That's an issue for the Twins, whose bullpen ERA the last two weeks is 7.63. The Guardians are 5-2 in Messick starts, the Twins are 6-12 overall on the road. Those trends can continue here.

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