MLB Predictions and Moneyline Picks for Sunday, April 12

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Sunday’s full 15-game MLB slate features plenty of strong spots that Polymarket traders may not have fully accounted for.

There are big names on the mound and teams finding their offensive rhythm, while others are still trying to settle in.

Find out more in my MLB picks for Sunday, April 12.

MLB moneyline picks for April 12

Prices courtesy of Polymarket as of 4-12.

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Expert MLB moneyline picks for April 12

Diamondbacks vs Phillies: Diamondbacks (+117)

Diamondbacks win probability: 46%

This is one of the clearest mismatches on the board when you look at the mound.

Zac Gallen gives Arizona a real edge, and the Diamondbacks have been more consistent than the Phillies.

Giants vs Orioles: Orioles (-113)

Orioles win probability: 53%

San Francisco has actually held up well on the road so far, but Baltimore has been slightly more consistent and gets the benefit of being at home, which matters in a matchup that feels this even.

With no major edge on the mound, I’ll side with the Orioles bats. 

Twins vs Blue Jays: Twins (-100)

Twins win probability: 50%

Taj Bradley has been sharp, while Max Scherzer is prone to the long ball.

Minnesota has been steadier, and this pitching matchup favors them right now. In a near pick’em, backing the pitcher in better form is the right move.

Angels vs Reds: Angels (+104)

Angels win probability: 49%

José Soriano has been lights out, while Cincinnati’s offense has been inconsistent.

This should be a close one, but Los Angeles and Soriano have the edge over Andrew Abbott. 

Athletics vs Mets: Athletics (+144)

Athletics win probability: 41%

The Athletics can hit, and that matters in this matchup.

With Freddy Peralta on the mound, the A’s have enough offense to create problems, especially against a Mets lineup that has been inconsistent.

Marlins vs Tigers: Marlins (+156)

Marlins win probability: 39%

This line leans heavily on Tarik Skubal’s abilities, but Sandy Alcantara has been dealing thus far.

Miami has been competitive all season, and Detroit can't seem to cross the dish. Take the better bats in this one. 

Yankees vs Rays: Yankees (-138)

Yankees win probability: 58%

The Yankees have the deeper lineup and more ways to win this game.

Tampa Bay is always formidable at home, but New York’s offense gives them an edge over nine innings. In a matchup like this, the more complete team usually finds a way.

Nationals vs Brewers: Nationals (+178)

Nationals win probability: 36%

Washington can hit, and the numbers back it up. The Nationals have been more productive offensively than Milwaukee, making this price too high.

The Brewers’ 23% strikeout rate limits their lineup, while the Nationals have more than enough offense to prevail.

White Sox vs Royals: Royals (-150)

Royals win probability: 60%

Kansas City has been the better team and now faces a Chicago side without a confirmed starter.

The White Sox haven’t traveled well, and those struggles should continue against Bobby Witt Jr. and the Royals. 

Red Sox vs Cardinals: Cardinals (-100)

Cardinals win probability: 50%

St. Louis has been playing some of the best baseball in the league, while Boston’s bats rank 23rd in wRC+.

That lack of production has shown up on the road, and those woes will likely continue this afternoon. 

Pirates vs Cubs: Pirates (+113)

Pirates win probability: 47%

Pittsburgh has been one of the better early-season teams, and that can continue here with Jameson Taillon carrying a 5.11 xFIP.

The Pirates’ offense ranks in the top 15 in wRC+, giving them the edge in what’s essentially a coin flip game.

Rockies vs Padres: Padres (-178)

Padres win probability: 64%

Kyle Freeland has been good, but this San Diego lineup owns a .785 OPS across 194 career at-bats against the veteran lefty.

The Padres’ offense is heating up and can be trusted to carry this matchup.

Rangers vs Dodgers: Rangers (+122)

Rangers win probability: 45%

Jacob deGrom gives Texas a chance against anyone, and that includes a strong Dodgers team.

Los Angeles is raking, but Roki Sasaki is off to an ugly start, and his 4.37 xFIP suggests his woes could continue today. 

Astros vs Mariners: Astros (+138)

Astros win probability: 42%

Seattle starter Logan Gilbert is off to a shaky start and looks overpriced, especially after allowing a .705 OPS across 164 at-bats against this Astros lineup. 

Houston is likely going with a bullpen game, and its arms can carry this matchup.

Guardians vs Braves: Braves (-150)

Braves win probability: 60%

Chris Sale gives Atlanta the edge on the mound, while Tanner Bibee’s 56% hard-hit rate is a concern.

The Braves’ bats have been more consistent, and that will carry them at home.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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