Mountain West Softball Tournament Preview: Round 1

Prediction: Caitlin Benningfield and Lauryn Carranco will start the games for the two teams. I believe both will be able to shut down the opposing offenses for the most part, giving up several hits but few runs. In a game like this, long-ball efficiency usually ends up being the difference, and the Lobos have a history of putting up runs against good pitchers in Reno (19 combined runs in two games this season). I believe one or two solo shots will end up being the difference in favor of the Lobos, who will advance to play the top-seeded Lopes in the double-elimination round.

Prediction: UNM 3, FST 2

#6 Colorado State Rams (23-27, 11-14 MW) vs. #3 Nevada Wolf Pack (36-18, 16-9 MW)

Game time: Wednesday, May 7, 6:00 p.m. PST (Mountain West Network)

Regular-Season Series: 3-0 NEV @ CSU

Preview: If you had told someone before the season that these two teams would meet in the conference tournament, many would have balked at the idea that Colorado State would be able to turn it all around in a single year. Tell someone this a week ago, and they would be praising the Rams for reaching the second round. Now, not only is this scenario a reality, but any praise towards the Rams has been muted by the fact that this is, somehow, a first-round matchup.

Colorado State being in this spot is not particularly surprising. The Rams entered Week 13 as the #4 seed, but knowing what we know now, would have had to win their series against top-seeded Grand Canyon to hold that spot. That did not happen, and outside of blowing a 5-1 lead in the top of the seventh inning in Game 2, they weren’t particularly close to averting a sweep. The Rams have lost eight of their last 11 games, slumping into a narrow conference tournament berth.

What is surprising is the fact that the Wolf Pack are here, and what an implosion it took for them to get here. Nevada took a streak of 17 consecutive series wins or ties into Las Vegas this weekend for a showdown with UNLV that would decide the conference’s #2 seed. The Pack left Vegas with an incomprehensible, unacceptable, absolutely humiliating series sweep at the hands of their biggest rivals. Nevada has now lost their last four games, entering the conference tournament looking like a hollow shell of the team they were supposed to be.

On paper, this game may look like a chance for Nevada to get their confidence back, given it’s against a team that they swept on the road just three weeks ago. However, the Wolf Pack have looked like a team that has forgotten how to win as of late. Victoria Hayward’s comments from a few weeks ago about this team feeling more pressure playing at home are more than relevant here, because Nevada has been prone to playing poorly at home in ways that they do not on the road. Of course, one must take into account their horrible play, regardless of location, over their last four games.

Prediction: This game is shaping up to be a rerun of Nevada’s home opener against Boise State. Reagan Wick will get the start in this game, gunning for vengeance against the team that embarrassed her at home. Wick will be able to make easy work of the Pack’s cold-hitting core for the first few innings, perhaps giving up a couple hits but no runs. Meanwhile, the Rams’ hot-hitting lineup, specifically Madi Eslinger and Lauren Stucky, will get to Nevada’s awful starting pitching early, let’s say five runs in the first two innings. Nevada will finally get on the board in the fifth and sixth innings, leaving at least two runners on each time. Finally, Nevada will go three-and-out in the bottom of the seventh, adding another chapter in the endless tale of failure that is the Wolf Pack’s history in important games.

Prediction: CSU 6, NEV 4