Naoya Inoue vs Junto Nakatani prediction: Who will win and how

Even if it was more the latter, Nakatani should come into this one feeling more comfortable at the weight. And Hernandez is a natural 122 lb fighter, too, which Inoue isn’t, though Inoue is entirely legit at the weight. Like Inoue, Nakatani has traveled up in weight over the years.

Over his last five, Nakatani has beaten Hernandez, Ryosuke Nishida, David Cuellar, Tasana Salapat (Petch CP Freshmart), and Vincent Astrolabio. Only Hernandez gave him any real trouble; he stopped all the others in six rounds or less. At his best, Nakatani is a vicious sharpshooter from the southpaw stance and could present real stylistic challenges for Inoue.

Who will win Inoue vs Nakatani?

Saying that Nakatani presents stylistic issues, potentially, for the great Inoue is not to suggest the reverse isn’t true. Inoue presents stylistic issues for everyone, largely because he’s just so consistently good. “The Monster” has himself said he doesn’t really do anything special, he just sticks to the fundamentals and a sturdy approach to boxing.

What has made Inoue exceptional is that consistency; he never seems to have an “off-night,” really, and no opponent has been able to really figure out how to throw him off his game. Even in moments of discomfort here and there, he stays relaxed and bounces back quickly, and every time out to date, his approach has taken over a fight and left him a convincing winner. There has been no controversy in Inoue’s run.

Nakatani will need to be better than he was against Hernandez, but this is also a totally different fight. Inoue is not going to wade in and put the pressure on the way Hernandez did, or at least that shouldn’t be expected and would seem, on paper, to be a really risky game plan from Inoue and his team, and they’re not exactly known for being adventurous. Inoue fights his fight and he wins, that’s been it to date. The challenge Nakatani faces is getting Inoue seriously out of rhythm and groove, keep him from developing that big momentum, and trying to protect the body may be a real key to how this goes for Junto.

You figure if “the moment” is going to get to somebody, it’d be Nakatani. This is really the biggest fight in either’s career, but Inoue has been under these really bright lights many more times. Nothing quite like headlining the Tokyo Dome against a fellow star countryman, but Inoue’s had a lot more big main events than Junto has had, and Nakatani is definitely the one facing a new class of opponent.

More than the Hernandez fight, that’s what worries me from the Nakatani side. There aren’t going to be rounds available to “give away” or sacrifice, so if Nakatani’s a little tight coming out and loses two or three rounds, that could put him in a hole, and if he feels early in-fight pressure on top of the pressure he’ll feel coming in, that could be his doom.

I like Nakatani a lot and think he’s a fantastic fighter. But I’m going with Naoya Inoue to stay unbeaten and keep his crown. He’s just been too reliably great in his career, he’s too proven at this level and on this type of stage, and I don’t think time has caught up to him just yet. Nakatani’s dangerous, though; if he’s going to win, he has to set the tone early, he can’t come out slow.

Prediction: Naoya Inoue via unanimous decision