NBA Draft scenarios 2026: How Nets, Wizards or Pacers can clinch best lottery odds in tank sweepstakes

NBA Draft scenarios 2026: How Nets, Wizards or Pacers can clinch best lottery odds in tank sweepstakes originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

The NBA's race to the bottom isn't exactly heating up — for months, the league's worst teams have been losing at historic rates.

Commissioner Adam Silver has indicated over the 2025-26 campaign that soon, the league will be implementing new "anti-tanking" rules to more heavily penalize teams who are more focused on losing than winning games. But because those rules haven't yet arrived, and the 2026 draft class is considered a strong one, there have been a lot of struggling franchises.

Among the non-playoff contenders, however, three teams appear set for a chance to own the NBA's worst record in 2025-26: the Indiana Pacers, Brooklyn Nets and Washington Wizards. With the regular season winding down, the draft lottery odds could be altered based on how the teams perform in their final games.

Here's an updated look at the bottom of the NBA standings and which teams will have the best draft lottery odds.

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Who will get the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft?

Regardless of how the rest of the regular season plays out, no team will be officially awarded the No. 1 pick until the draft lottery on May 10, 2026. On that day, every non-playoff team (or teams who own a non-playoff team's pick) will find out their fate and if the lottery worked in their favor.

However, the NBA's lottery odds system does give favor to the bottom-three teams in the league. There isn't a special distinction for the worst record — having the fewest wins does no more good for a team than having the third-fewest wins. All three of the league's worst teams get a 14.0% chance at winning the lottery and receiving the No. 1 overall pick.

With just a few games remaining, there are five teams in the mix to finish with a bottom-three record:

Records updated through Apr. 8 games.

• Washington Wizards (17-62)
• Indiana Pacers (18-61)
• Brooklyn Nets (20-59)
• Utah Jazz (21-59)
• Sacramento Kings (21-59)

The Wizards are currently the only lock to finish in the bottom-three. Even if Washington wins its last three games, it would have 20 wins, which is behind the Jazz and Kings' 21 wins. The Wizards are set to have 14.0% odds in the 2026 lottery for the No. 1 pick.

The other two teams have yet to be determined. The Pacers are likely to finish in the bottom-three, as they have remaining games against the Nets, 76ers and Pistons. The loser of the Indiana-Brooklyn matchup on Apr. 9 could be more firmly in the mix for a bottom-three record.

If the Nets beat the Pacers on Apr. 9, then tings could get more interesting for the final bottom-three record. The Jazz have two games remaining against the Grizzlies and Lakers, the Nets have games against the Bucks and Raptors, and the Kings have games against the Warriors and Trail Blazers.

The two teams who do not secure a bottom-three record will receive a 11.5% chance at the No. 1 pick.

With Washington locked into the 14.0% lottery odds, and the Pacers likely to earn the same odds, either the Nets, Jazz or Kings still have the chance to secure their best possible shot at the No. 1 pick and right to select from AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson or Cameron Boozer.

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NBA lottery odds 2026

Based on the current NBA standings, here is how the draft lottery odds would be projected. The bottom of the lottery odds will be officially decided by which teams lose in the Play-In Tournament.

Updated through Apr. 8 games.

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