NBA player prop picks, odds, free best bets: Model fading Nikola Jokic for 2026 NBA Playoffs on April 23

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Nuggets center Nikola Jokic has been a mainstay for NBA prop betting in recent years, racking up double-doubles and triple-doubles at an alarming rate. However, Jokic and the Nuggets will head to Minnesota to take on the Timberwolves tied 1-1 after Denver suffered a 119-114 setback in Game 2. Jokic finished with 24 points, 15 rebounds and eight assists in Monday's loss, and his over/under for total points scored on Thursday is 29.5. Jokic is averaging 24.5 points per game in this series, and the SportsLine Projection Model is projecting Jokic to go Under his scoring total (29.5) for Thursday NBA player props.

The model is high on Raptors forward Scottie Barnes to be productive on the offensive end of the floor when the Toronto Raptors battle the Cleveland Cavaliers at 8 p.m. ET. Barnes is averaging 23.5 points and 6.0 assists through two games against Cleveland, and his over/under for total points + assists on Thursday is 23.5. Before locking in Thursday NBA prop picks and other NBA bets on betting sites like FanDuel, be sure to check out top picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past eight-plus seasons. The model entered the first full week of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 24-9 roll (73%) on top-rated NBA spread picks this season. Anyone following its NBA betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen huge returns.

Top NBA player prop picks on Thursday

• Josh Hart, Knicks, Over 7.5 rebounds
• Scottie Barnes, Raptors, Over 23.5 points + assists
• Nikola Jokic, Nuggets, Over 29.5 points

Josh Hart, Knicks, Over 7.5 rebounds

"As expected, Josh Hart's minutes have increased in the playoffs," SportsLine expert Larry Hartstein said. "He's averaging 36 minutes and 13.5 rebounds in two games vs. Atlanta, and he's plus-12 in the series. The Hawks don't have a big frontline, which enables Hart to crash the glass even more. I would also play this Over 8.5 at plus money."

Scottie Barnes, Raptors, Over 23.5 points + assists

Despite being down 0-2, Barnes has been a productive playmaker for the Raptors in this series. Barnes is averaging 23.5 points and 6.0 assists through two games against the Cavaliers. Barnes has scored 18 or more points in four of his past six games, and he's racked up at least five assists in each of his previous four contests. SportsLine's model is projecting Barnes will finish with 27.5 points + assists on average in Game 3.