The NBA playoffs for 2026 feature an open field with several contenders, including the Thunder, Spurs, Celtics, Nuggets, Cavs, Pistons, and Knicks. Predictions extend from the first round to the Finals, with the Thunder as favorites but facing tough competition.
Key points
NBA playoffs for 2026 are open with multiple contenders
Teams like Thunder, Spurs, and Celtics are in contention
Western Conference playoffs expected to be highly competitive
Thunder are favorites but face health challenges
Predictions span from first round to NBA Finals
Oklahoma City ThunderSan Antonio SpursBoston CelticsDenver Nuggets
The NBA playoffs are here, and the field feels more open than usual. The rule of thumb is that a team needs at least a five percent chance of winning a championship to be considered a true contender. This season, the Thunder, Spurs, Celtics, Nuggets, Cavs, Pistons, and Knicks all hit that threshold. It wouldn't be inconceivable for any of those seven to win. You can add the Wolves in as a dark horse too.
As usual, the Western Conference will be a bloodbath. The defending champion Thunder are the favorites, but they'll need to stay healthy to survive such a chaotic bracket.
I’ve predicted the last two champions correctly. Let’s see if I can make it three in a row. Here are my NBA predictions, from the first round to the Finals.
Which teams are considered true contenders in the 2026 NBA playoffs?
The true contenders for the 2026 NBA playoffs include the Thunder, Spurs, Celtics, Nuggets, Cavs, Pistons, and Knicks.
What makes the Western Conference playoffs particularly challenging in 2026?
The Western Conference playoffs are expected to be chaotic and competitive, with the defending champion Thunder needing to stay healthy to navigate the tough bracket.
Who are the favorites to win the 2026 NBA championship?
The favorites to win the 2026 NBA championship are the Oklahoma City Thunder, although several other teams also have a chance.
What are the predictions for the 2026 NBA playoffs from the first round to the Finals?
Predictions for the 2026 NBA playoffs cover outcomes from the first round all the way to the Finals, highlighting key matchups and potential champions.
Related Articles
NFL
WR Flowers: Harbaugh's practices led to injuries
Zay Flowers claims Harbaugh's tough practices led to injuries for Ravens players.
ESPN News··1 min read
Sports
Silva on team news, derbies and belief
Marco Silva shares insights on team news and Brentford derby importance
Yahoo Sports··1 min read
Sports
USA Today Fired Crissy Froyd for a Russini Post. It Had Already Published the Polite Version
USA Today has fired Crissy Froyd for discussing Dianna Russini's resignation linked to leaked photos.
Yahoo Sports··1 min read
Soccer·Transfer
Koeman señala al próximo fichaje del Barça: "Es un mix entre Pedri y De Jong"
Koeman destaca a Kees Smit como el próximo fichaje del Barça, un mix entre Pedri y De Jong.
Marca··1 min read
NFL
Rams fix 2014 mistake by picking different lineman in re-draft
In a re-draft, the Rams would choose Jake Matthews instead of Greg Robinson from 2014.
Yahoo Sports··1 min read
Sports·Feature
Longhorns Daily News: Texas’ Arch Manning describes transfer addition Cam Coleman as ‘elite player’
Arch Manning praises new Texas transfer Cam Coleman as an elite player!
NBA Playoffs predictions 2026: Eastern Conference first round
(1) Pistons vs. (8) Magic/Hornets
The Pistons have Cade Cunningham back, and Detroit showed that they don't even need him in order to win games. They went 8-3 during his absence from a collapsed lung toward the end of the year. They should obviously win this series, but it won't necessarily be a cakewalk.
The team that the Pistons least wanted to face coming out of the Play-In Tournament was the Hornets, who have looked like a completely different group from the one that started the season 11-23. LaMelo Ball is leading a dynamic, fast-paced offense that can outscore anyone. Charles Lee has the team defending way above its weight.
The Magic look more disjointed. Franz Wagner is playing but banged up. Paolo Banchero has been mostly ineffective this season. Jamahl Mosley is on the hottest seat in the league. This team looks good on paper, but they've been a mess.
The Pistons should take care of business either way, but it's not going to be a sweep if Charlotte makes it through.
Winner: Pistons
(2) Celtics vs. (7) Sixers
The Sixers are going to be missing Joel Embiid, and they're not going to be competitive in this series without him. Embiid isn't nearly the same player defensively as he once was, but his offense was giving Philadelphia a big jolt.
Boston has gotten better as the season has progressed, and they've been through these battles before.
Winner: Celtics
(3) Knicks vs. (6) Hawks
New York has been a hot and cold team this year. They've been trending upward as of late, improving their defense and getting stronger contributions from Karl-Anthony Towns.
Put an inconsistent regular season aside. Mike Brown was brought in specifically for the playoffs, where a more varied offense and less stubborn approach was supposed to lead to more success. This is put up or shut up time.
This isn't a great matchup for Atlanta, who will have their hands full keeping Mitchell Robinson off the glass. Onyeka Okongwu has been a quality center, but he's undersized. Jock Landale was vital in the backup role, and his availability is in doubt after a high ankle sprain. Atlanta signed Tony Bradley off the street, who has been ineffective.
The Knicks also have proven playoff scorers, while it's unclear how Quin Snyder's offensive system of unusual screening partners and multiple playmakers will hold up under a playoff scout that is more prepared for what's coming.
Winner: Knicks
(4) Cavs vs. (5) Raptors
The Raptors have played the Cavs well, winning all three of their regular season matchups. They're a good defensive team that has the personnel to match up with Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, who didn't play in any of those games.
Harden gives the Cavs a new dimension. He's developed instant pick-and-roll chemistry with Jarrett Allen and allowed Donovan Mitchell to pick his spots better. For all of the criticisms about his playoff performances, he usually does well in earlier rounds.
The Raptors don't have those same levels of offensive weaponry. Brandon Ingram has been a good midrange volume scorer. Scottie Barnes can create for teammates as a point forward. Cleveland has the size to slow both of those guys down, and Toronto doesn't have many other ways to produce good shots.
Winner: Cavs
Getty Images
NBA Playoffs predictions 2026: Western Conference first round
(1) Thunder vs. (8) Suns/Warriors
The Thunder have everyone on their team relatively healthy. They've gone through stretches of boredom during the regular season, waiting for the playoffs to start. They're going to steamroll through this first round matchup, whether it's against a plucky Suns team or a Warriors group that's far too dependent on a limping Stephen Curry and the shaky health of Kristaps Porzingis.
Winner: Thunder
(2) Spurs vs. (7) Blazers
This was the upset of last season when the seventh-seeded Warriors upset the No. 2 seed Rockets. History probably isn't repeating.
No, the Spurs don't have the playoff experience yet. But their stellar defense should carry over even if they have some initial nerves on offense.
The Blazers do have some good personnel to guard Victor Wembanyama, who has struggled in the past against bigger wing defenders. But Wemby has gotten better and stronger as this season has progressed, and he's going to figure out ways to score.
Winner: Spurs
(3) Nuggets vs. (6) Wolves
This is the series of the first round. The Wolves eliminated the Nuggets in seven games two years ago and have always played them well. They've gotten a boost from trade acquisition Ayo Dosunmu, who has been a microwave scorer off the bench. And Anthony Edwards always levels up in the playoffs.
The Nuggets have been at peak form though, winning 12 straight headed into the playoffs. They've been a different team when Aaron Gordon is good to go. And it's always tough to bet against Nikola Jokic in a series.
Winner: Nuggets
(4) Lakers****vs. (5) Rockets
The Lakers aren't going to have Luka Doncic for much of this series, if at all. Austin Reaves will also be out with a hamstring injury.
That puts a ton of weight on the shoulders of 41-year-old LeBron James. Los Angeles looked like it was putting its season together with a late run to move into the four seed before the injury bug hit. LeBron can't do it by himself anymore at this age.
The Rockets have injuries of their own. Losing dominant offensive rebounder Steven Adams changed the tenor of the team. But Kevin Durant has still been an All-NBA player, and they have the overall talent edge given that the Lakers are missing two of their best three players.
Winner: Rockets
Jaylen Brown and Mikal Bridges
Jaylen Brown and Mikal Bridges
Imagn Images
NBA Playoffs predictions: Conference Semifinals picks
(1) Pistons vs. (4) Cavs
The Pistons are one of the historically weaker No. 1 seeds in NBA history. They did get some playoff experience last year, losing a tough first-round series to the Knicks in six games. They'll get a bit farther this year, but I don't think they get past the Cavs.
Cleveland split their games with the Pistons after acquiring Harden, but Mitchell was missing for both of those contests. Detroit is a tough defense that will play physically. The Cavs have too many talented scorers though to get shut down completely. And if this series turns into an offensive showdown, then Detroit doesn't have the weapons to keep up.
Kenny Atkinson has been good at imposing a fast pace in the Cavs' playoff series, including the one that they lost last season to a Pacers team that was a lot better than we realized at the time. Few remember that they smoked the Heat in the first round in one of the most lopsided series ever.
The Cavs should get a chance for redemption, pulling off the upset with their experience, incredible isolation weapons, and size in the frontcourt.
Winner: Cavaliers
(2) Celtics vs. (3) Knicks
These two get a rematch of last year's playoffs, where the Knicks pulled off a stunning upset in six games. Yes, Tatum got hurt at the end of that series, but New York was probably going to win by that point given that they were on the verge of taking a 3-1 series lead.
Boston should be more prepared this time. They were caught off guard by some clever adjustments, including much more defensive switching than the Knicks had used during the regular season.
Jaylen Brown has taken a big leap as an isolation scorer, and he can punish those switches much more effectively with his improved midrange jumper and strength going to the rim.
The Celtics have developed a ton of bench depth that gives them a better chance too. And they've been consistently excellent this season, while we never know which version of the Knicks we will see on a nightly basis.
This is going to be a tough series, but Boston is the better team.
Winner: Celtics
(1) Thunder vs. (5) Rockets
This is a bad matchup for the Rockets, who don't have the guard play to deal with the Thunder's aggressive ball pressure. They're going to struggle to score, and at age 37 with a ton of minutes logged during the regular season, Kevin Durant can only do so much.
The Rockets will try to junk up this series with their physical defenders and size. Nobody has been able to slow down SGA this season though. There's not a great place to hide Alperen Sengun on defense, due to Chet Holmgren's ability to shoot and put the ball on the floor and the shooting up and down the rest of the Thunder's starting lineup.
The Thunder are simply too deep, have too many different ways to play, and have the best player in this series.
Winner: Thunder
(2) Spurs vs. (3) Nuggets
Wembanyama versus Jokic is going to be must-see TV. Those two will be matched up against each other, and every possession will be war. Wemby is the one player whom Jokic has struggled to get his Sombor Shuffle fadeaway over. Jokic is the one big man whom Wemby has struggled to stop near the basket.
Those two greats may play to a draw, and the Spurs have better secondary players. Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and De'Aaron Fox all have great hands and can guard Jamal Murray well. All three are also good downhill drivers who will poke holes in a Denver defense that has been worse than usual.
The Nuggets have the experience, but the Spurs have the overall talent edge and a far deeper bench in this series.
The temptation here is to say that this will be an easy series for the Celtics given the Cavs' inconsistencies.
On paper though, this series should be very close. Cleveland has been terrific with Harden. Atkinson has been better at staggering his players to minimize fit issues. And glue guy Max Strus is finally back.
Boston should have the weapons to counteract what the Cavs want to do. They've been the best team in the league at taking away the rim. If they can slow down that driving pressure that Mitchell and Harden create, then Cleveland's offense will sink.
Winner: Celtics
(1) Thunder vs. (2) Spurs
Some will consider this the real Finals. The Spurs took three of four regular season matchups, including an impressive win in their first meeting which knocked Oklahoma City out of the NBA Cup and snapped their 16-game winning streak.
Wembanyama has challenged the Thunder in a way that nobody else has. The Spurs star has gotten the better of Holmgren in one of the NBA's best budding rivalries. San Antonio is also uniquely positioned to counter the Thunder's suffocating point-of-attack defense due to how many quality offensive guards they have.
The Thunder did seem to find something in their last matchup, a 21-point blowout win, by putting smaller defenders such as Alex Caruso on Wembanyama. Jalen Williams, who has been up-and-down this season due to injuries, also showed up in that win.
This is going to be a terrific series that should go seven. The Spurs don't have home court advantage, and they may need one more year of experience before they take down the champs.
Winner: Thunder
NBA Finals prediction
(1) Thunder vs. (2) Celtics
Whoever the East brings to the Finals is probably going to get smoked by the West. The top three contenders (Thunder, Spurs, Nuggets) are all in that conference.
The Celtics are certainly a good team, but their guards are going to have a lot of trouble creating against tenacious defenders like Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, and Caruso. Neemias Queta has been a top 10 center in the league for Boston, but he presents unique struggles in this series too. Holmgren should be able to sag off him, and that adds an elite rim protector that is going to completely wall off the rim.
If Tatum were fully healthy, then this would be a coin-flip matchup. The Celtics have gotten a version that is maybe 70 percent of their star. That's not going to be enough to topple the reigning champs.
