NBA playoff predictions 2026: the winner, key players and dark horses

**Team that will be most missed in these playoffs**

Call me nostalgic, but I’m still pining for **last season’s Indiana Pacers**. It seems cruel and unusual that we had that team ripped from us in such dramatic and devastating fashion, and a playoffs without the scintillating Tyrese Haliburton and his never-say-die supporting cast is an objective downgrade. **CDL** Missed – as in absent? **The Lakers are technically in the playoffs, but not** ***really***: Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves are gone, and so is any illusion of the team being at full strength. LeBron James, once again, will drag what’s left of the roster for as long as it lasts, maybe for the final time in LA. **LE** It’s **Miami** for me. Only three teams seeded fifth or worse have managed to scratch their way into the NBA finals since 2000. Six teams ever. Two of them were Erik Spoelstra joints: the 2020 and 2023 Heat. Even in down years, there’s an institutional culture in South Beach seemingly lab-made for postseason mayhem: adaptive, opportunistic, built for disorder. The East side of the bracket just feels less dangerous without Coach Spo scheming another batch of role players into playoff giant-killers. **BAG** It still smarts to be denied the chance to see this newly emboldened version of **Miami**’s Bam Adebayo who can apparently go for 83 points on any given night. It further feels especially cruel that the Hornets got to play on after LaMelo Ball’s dirty defense on Adebayo in their play-in matchup on Tuesday – though Ball was fined, which, I suspect, comes as little consolation to Spoelstra’s crew. **AL**

**High seed at risk of going out early**

Conventional wisdom would say this is the Lakers, and that’s probably the correct pick. But it feels a little too obvious to choose the team who lost their top two scorers, Dončić and Reaves. So keep an eye on the second-seeded **Spurs**. They’re set to face the winner of Nuggets-Timberwolves in round two, and if that’s Denver, I’d pick the more experienced team to survive and advance. **CDL** Interactive The top-seeded **Pistons**, although this hinges on Charlotte making it through as the No 8 seed in Friday night’s play-in. Matchups are fate. Detroit can’t trade twos for threes with a Hornets team carrying the greatest shooting rookie ever and a pack of dawgs. That series could turn into carnage, fast. **LE** I’m afraid it’s the **Knicks**. The first-round series with Atlanta is dicier than a 3-6 matchup suggests. The Hawks’ length, shooting and post-All-Star surge make them dangerous floaters who have already shown they can push New York to the brink in three tightly wound regular-season contests, including last week’s barn-burner played at playoff intensity. If Jalen Brunson gets crowded by Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker and the Knicks’ deeper supporting cast stalls, it could get late early in Gotham. **BAG** How about the **Knicks** drawing the short straw against Atlanta, one of the league’s most improved teams after the All-Star break? More impressively, the Hawks did so after turning over the core of their roster, making this a far trickier matchup for New York, who were lucky to make it out of Atlanta last week with a three-point win and keep themselves in the driver’s seat for the No 3 seed. The back-and-forth between Brunson and CJ McCollum has the potential to be box-office stuff. **AL**

**Long shot to win**

Take a walk with me, if you will, down Pigs-flying-with-dodo-birds Lane. An NBA folk tale for the ages: LeBron James, one last time, puts a woefully ill-equipped team on his back, for one round ... just long enough to facilitate the return of Dončić and Reaves from injury. The **Lakers** then go on a memorable playoff run, lift the trophy and send James into retirement as a five-time champion. Is it likely? No. Would it be fun? The *most*. **CDL** The **Spurs**. I called it pre-season. They’re ahead of schedule now, but Wemby sniffing a title in year three tells you what he is already. Around him: a swarm of fearless two-way wings and guards, a swarm of killer instinct. **LE** The **Pistons**. Can a No 1 seed that paced the Eastern Conference for the final 157 days of the regular season really be considered a long shot? When the oddsmakers are pricing them as the *seventh* favorite to win the title, the answer is yes. Nobody seems to believe in Detroit’s youth movement, even after the third 60-win season in the team’s 85-year history. Their edge is a workmanlike consistency: a deep, unselfish system that’s held through injuries and doesn’t beat itself. **BAG** The **Hawks** have length, bounce and brilliant tactician in Quin Snyder – who may well have the best NBA roster he’s ever coached. What’s more, they’ve caused headaches for higher seeds in the past, pushing eventual champion Milwaukee to six games in the 2021 conference finals and spooking Boston in similar fashion in the 2023 first round. **AL**

**Most important player this postseason**

**Jokić** will, once again, face a gargantuan task. To get to the finals, he will probably have to overcome the thorn in his side that is the Timberwolves, take down Wemby and a red-hot Spurs team, and, ultimately, dethrone the reigning champions. But I believe if anyone is capable of such a task, it’s the Serbian superstar. **CDL** **Gilgeous-Alexander**. If his MVP trajectory falters – or worse, he’s injured – it derails OKC’s ascendent dynasty and throws the field into chaos, where anyone can bag the crown. **LE** **Wembanyama.** The 22-year-old from the Paris suburbs was breathlessly hyped as the NBA’s best prospect since LeBron when he was still a gangly teenager, but he’s somehow managed to exceed those expectations while growing mentally, physically (he’s 7ft 5in now?!) and even spiritually. The Spurs have emerged as a trendy pick to win it all after besting the Thunder in four of their five regular-season meetings and their cheat code at center remains the biggest potential spanner in the defending champs’ repeat bid. **BAG** Narratively, it’s **Anthony Edwards**. The Minnesota star already shown he can drag a team deep into the playoffs, albeit with a roster that hadn’t yet peaked. But if he can manage the trick again – with a thinner supporting cast, in a return to the sixth seed – it sure would make a helluva statement. **AL**

**Eastern Conference finals**

Knicks over Pistons. **CDL** Knicks over Pistons. **LE** Pistons over Celtics. **BAG** Celtics over Pistons. **AL**

**Western Conference finals**

Thunder over Nuggets. **CDL** Spurs over Thunder. **LE** Thunder over Spurs. **BAG** Thunder over Spurs. **AL**

**Your NBA champion will be ...**

At the risk of dampening intrigue, I really do think the **Thunder** are likely to be repeat champions. They got healthy at the right time, their chemistry appears to be at an all-time high, SGA is favorite to win MVP and for some unknowable reason, Daryl Morey gift-wrapped them yet another perfectly suited bench player in Jared McCain. The Nuggets will give them a run for their money in the conference finals, but ultimately, I just can’t pick against this Thunder machine. **CDL** Related: How the streaming dream turned sports on TV into a costly maze The **Knicks**. They already bloodied Boston and Detroit in last year’s playoffs. There’s the revenge for 1999 angle; even the Spurs don’t scare them. OKC, young and brilliant, wilt under MSG’s big city lights. Brunson, born to play basketball, takes the Knicks to the promised land, achieving sainthood. For a fanbase title-starved for more than five decades, this is more than a championship run. We’re talking generational spiritual repair, the kind people chase in deserts, dreams and God. **LE** The **Thunder**. Let the dynasty chatter begin. Oklahoma City are the most complete team with the deepest rotation in the most adaptable system. There are no weak points to attack. SGA is the MVP-caliber talent who anchors everything, but it’s the collective that makes them overwhelming. They can win fast or slow, big or small, ugly or pretty. The question now is whether anyone can consistently disrupt them. The Spurs managed it in the regular season, but knocking OKC out of the playoffs will require near-perfect basketball for four quarters, four times. I wouldn’t bet on it. **BAG** The **Celtics**. Less than a year after Jayson Tatum went down with a ruptured achilles and threw Boston’s future in doubt, he roars back and leads the Celtics to their 19th championship, rekindling dynasty talk and putting the rumors of unrest between him and Jaylen Brown to rest for good. Joe Mazzulla, now undeniably a mad genius, celebrates by getting a pet wolf – but his wife says he can’t keep it in the house. So the Celtics build a habitat outside the Garden, and fans make a tradition out of hurling the jerseys of their vanquished rivals, putting a basketball spin on the idea of being “thrown to the wolves”. **AL**