The NBA playoffs began on April 18, 2025, with the Thunder favored to win. USA TODAY Sports simulated the playoff bracket 100 times to predict potential outcomes.
Key points
NBA playoffs started on April 18, 2025
Thunder favored to win the championship
Playoff bracket simulated 100 times
Predictions based on simulation outcomes
Oklahoma City ThunderNBA playoffs 2025-26
NBA playoff simulation: Thunder favored, but will they win it all?
Who will be crowned NBA champions for the 2025-26 season? That's the question basketball fans are looking forward to finding out as the playoffs officially got underway on Saturday, April 18.
But for those who can't wait until the Finals are over in mid-June, we have some clues.
USA TODAY Sports simulated each series of this year's playoff bracket 100 different times to come up with an idea of the most likely outcomes.
Starting with ESPN's Basketball Power Index figures, we built an engine with Microsoft Copilot that ran all 100 simulations at once. And here are the results.
As the NBA Play‑In Tournament unfolds, every possession carries extra weight with postseason spots on the line.
See the action and emotion from across the tournament as teams battle through high‑stakes games.
Above, LaMelo Ball #1 celebrates with Coby White #3 of the Charlotte Hornets in overtime against the Miami Heat during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Deni Avdija #8 of the Portland Trail Blazers reacts after scoring and drawing a foul against the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona.
Q&A
What are the predictions for the NBA playoffs 2025-26 season?
The predictions indicate that the Thunder are favored to win the NBA championship based on simulations.
When did the NBA playoffs start in 2025?
The NBA playoffs officially began on April 18, 2025.
How many times was the NBA playoff bracket simulated?
The NBA playoff bracket was simulated 100 times to analyze potential outcomes.
Who is likely to win the NBA championship according to the simulations?
The simulations suggest that the Oklahoma City Thunder are the most likely team to win the NBA championship.
See every story in Sports — including breaking news and analysis.
Miles Bridges #0 of the Charlotte Hornets blocks a shot from Tyler Herro #14 of the Miami Heat in the first half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Shaedon Sharpe #17 of the Portland Trail Blazers slam dunks the ball against the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona.
LaMelo Ball #1 of the Charlotte Hornets drives to the basket while guarded by Andrew Wiggins #22 of the Miami Heat in the first half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Jrue Holiday #5 of the Portland Trail Blazers attempts a three-point shot over Jalen Green #4 of the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona.
Miles Bridges #0 of the Charlotte Hornets reacts after defeating the Miami Heat during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Jerami Grant #9 of the Portland Trail Blazers reacts to a three-point shot against the Phoenix Suns during the second half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona. The Portland Trail Blazers defeated the Suns 114-110.
Coby White #3 of the Charlotte Hornets reacts after making a basket late in the second half against the Miami Heat during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Deni Avdija #8 of the Portland Trail Blazers handles the ball ahead of Jalen Green #4 of the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona.
Kon Knueppel #7 of the Charlotte Hornets shoots the ball while guarded by Pelle Larsson #9 of the Miami Heat in the first half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns and Scoot Henderson #00 of the Portland Trail Blazers battle for a loose ball during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona.
Brandon Miller #24 of the Charlotte Hornets guards Andrew Wiggins #22 of the Miami Heat in the first half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Miles Bridges #0 of the Charlotte Hornets reacts in overtime against the Miami Heat during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Coby White #3 of the Charlotte Hornets brings the ball up court while guarded by Simone Fontecchio #0 of the Miami Heat in the first half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Jrue Holiday #5 of the Portland Trail Blazers attempts a shot under pressure from Mark Williams #15 of the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona. The Portland Trail Blazers defeated the Suns 114-110.
Coby White #3 of the Charlotte Hornets shoots the ball over Pelle Larsson #9 of the Miami Heat late in the second half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Interim head coach Tiago Splitter of the Portland Trail Blazers reacts during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game against the Phoenix Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona.
LaMelo Ball #1 of the Charlotte Hornets dunks the ball in the first half while guarded by Simone Fontecchio #0 of the Miami Heat during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Deni Avdija #8 of the Portland Trail Blazers lays up a shot ahead of Oso Ighodaro #11 and Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona. The Portland Trail Blazers defeated the Suns 114-110.
Norman Powell #24 of the Miami Heat drives to the basket while guarded by Brandon Miller #24 of the Charlotte Hornets in the second half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
1 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
As the NBA Play‑In Tournament unfolds, every possession carries extra weight with postseason spots on the line.
See the action and emotion from across the tournament as teams battle through high‑stakes games.
Above, LaMelo Ball #1 celebrates with Coby White #3 of the Charlotte Hornets in overtime against the Miami Heat during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
1 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
As the NBA Play‑In Tournament unfolds, every possession carries extra weight with postseason spots on the line.
See the action and emotion from across the tournament as teams battle through high‑stakes games.
Above, LaMelo Ball #1 celebrates with Coby White #3 of the Charlotte Hornets in overtime against the Miami Heat during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
2 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Deni Avdija #8 of the Portland Trail Blazers reacts after scoring and drawing a foul against the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona.
3 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Miles Bridges #0 of the Charlotte Hornets blocks a shot from Tyler Herro #14 of the Miami Heat in the first half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
4 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Shaedon Sharpe #17 of the Portland Trail Blazers slam dunks the ball against the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona.
5 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
LaMelo Ball #1 of the Charlotte Hornets drives to the basket while guarded by Andrew Wiggins #22 of the Miami Heat in the first half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
6 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Jrue Holiday #5 of the Portland Trail Blazers attempts a three-point shot over Jalen Green #4 of the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona.
7 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Miles Bridges #0 of the Charlotte Hornets reacts after defeating the Miami Heat during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
8 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Jerami Grant #9 of the Portland Trail Blazers reacts to a three-point shot against the Phoenix Suns during the second half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona. The Portland Trail Blazers defeated the Suns 114-110.
9 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Coby White #3 of the Charlotte Hornets reacts after making a basket late in the second half against the Miami Heat during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
10 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Deni Avdija #8 of the Portland Trail Blazers handles the ball ahead of Jalen Green #4 of the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona.
11 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Kon Knueppel #7 of the Charlotte Hornets shoots the ball while guarded by Pelle Larsson #9 of the Miami Heat in the first half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
12 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns and Scoot Henderson #00 of the Portland Trail Blazers battle for a loose ball during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona.
13 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Brandon Miller #24 of the Charlotte Hornets guards Andrew Wiggins #22 of the Miami Heat in the first half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
14 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Miles Bridges #0 of the Charlotte Hornets reacts in overtime against the Miami Heat during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
15 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Coby White #3 of the Charlotte Hornets brings the ball up court while guarded by Simone Fontecchio #0 of the Miami Heat in the first half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
16 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Jrue Holiday #5 of the Portland Trail Blazers attempts a shot under pressure from Mark Williams #15 of the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona. The Portland Trail Blazers defeated the Suns 114-110.
17 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Coby White #3 of the Charlotte Hornets shoots the ball over Pelle Larsson #9 of the Miami Heat late in the second half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
18 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Interim head coach Tiago Splitter of the Portland Trail Blazers reacts during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game against the Phoenix Suns at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona.
19 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
LaMelo Ball #1 of the Charlotte Hornets dunks the ball in the first half while guarded by Simone Fontecchio #0 of the Miami Heat during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
20 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Deni Avdija #8 of the Portland Trail Blazers lays up a shot ahead of Oso Ighodaro #11 and Devin Booker #1 of the Phoenix Suns during the first half of an NBA play-in tournament game at Mortgage Matchup Center on April 14, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona. The Portland Trail Blazers defeated the Suns 114-110.
21 / 21
NBA Play-In Tournament photos showcase final push to the postseason
Norman Powell #24 of the Miami Heat drives to the basket while guarded by Brandon Miller #24 of the Charlotte Hornets in the second half during their game at Spectrum Center on April 14, 2026, in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Simulated NBA championship results
The top-seeded and defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder came out on top in the majority of our 100 simulations. But it wasn't a runaway by any means.
However, just four different teams were represented as champions in at least one simulation.
