NBA playoffs: Timberwolves face crucial offseason decisions regardless of series outcome against Spurs

No matter how this second-round matchup ends, Minnesota has important questions to answer this offseason as it tries to build a contender around Edwards. The Timberwolves will have to determine if the results of their series win over the Nuggets can be replicated over the next few seasons as Edwards and several other prominent rotation players enter their hypothetical peaks.

Edwards enters his peak as a playoff monster

There's no question the guard is Minnesota's franchise player. He'll be just 25 entering next year, which will be his seventh in the NBA. Assuming he does not return in these playoffs, he'll already have 46 postseason games under his belt. And he's been an absolute monster under the bright lights.

Edwards is averaging 26.2 points on 46/37/79 shooting splits in the playoffs for his career. He's been particularly great against the Nuggets, dropping 31.6 ppg on Denver on 48/35/85 splits in 2023 before going for 27.7 ppg on 50/37/85 splits in the 2024 series that saw the Timberwolves overcome a 20-point deficit on the road in Game 7 to win.

In the last two postseasons, Edwards has averaged 26.5 points, 6.0 assists and 7.4 rebounds per game on 47/38/77 splits. More importantly, the Timberwolves are 18-13 across those games, with series wins over the likes of Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Nikola Jokic. In short, Edwards has quickly become one of the NBA's most prominent postseason players.

The Timberwolves don't have the same avenues for adding talented players like other franchises, given their market, but playing with Edwards could be an attractive proposition to plenty of players. That's why this offseason becomes critical for Minnesota.

Minnesota's roster outlook heading into 2026-27

Assuming the Timberwolves retain Dosunmu, which won't be easy given his 43-point effort in Game 4 against Denver, they'll have four players who are 26 or younger heading into next season with Edwards, Dosunmu, Terrence Shannon and Jaden McDaniels. Naz Reid will just be turning 27. They'll also have Rudy Gobert and a late first-round pick on the roster.

Gobert has been a befuddling player for much of his career. He's a four-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year, but those accolades don't reflect his postseason struggles. The big man registered a 104 defensive rating during the regular season across 2020-23, per basketball-reference.com, but that number ballooned to 116 during those playoffs. The Timberwolves spent a ton of draft capital to acquire him, and the early results have been mixed.

However, the first round against Denver this year was among Gobert's most impressive showings of his career. He registered a 105 defensive rating, according to basketball-reference.com. That is up from his 110 defensive rating during the regular season and the best mark he's had in the playoffs since 2017-18. He's the reason the Timberwolves stymied one of the most potent offensive combinations in the league.

Jokic and Jamal Murray logged 1,706 minutes together in the regular season, according to lineup data from nba.com/stats. They had a 127.8 offensive rating, more than making up for their 116.2 defensive rating. In the six games against Minnesota, the Jokic-Murray two-man lineup registered an offensive rating of 103.2, which is a calamitous drop. Jokic shot 40% or worse in three straight games while Murray, often regarded as one of the league's best postseason closers, shot 4-for-17 in Game 6. He was 40% or worse from the floor in five of the six games.

San Antonio and the Oklahoma City Thunder present different challenges for the Timberwolves, but they've already seen Oklahoma City in last year's conference finals and will get a look at the Spurs with Game 1 on Monday. That'll give Minnesota an idea of how to attack the offseason while also retaining the core of its roster.

Key offseason decisions

Dosunmu is a free agent, and the Timberwolves will also have to think about DiVincenzo, who will be a free agent after next season. The guard's game is unlikely to suffer much after he comes back from his injury but Achilles tears are unpredictable and DiVincenzo will be 30 in January. It's hard to determine his market value. Minnesota will be a repeat offender for the luxury tax but likely will stay below the second apron and avoid major restrictions.

Giannis Antetokounmpo will be the big prize of the offseason if he and the Milwaukee Bucks agree to part ways, and the Timberwolves were rumored to be seriously interested in the Greek Freak. However, gutting key parts of the roster to land Antetokounmpo might not make sense, even if pairing him with Edwards is intriguing. Michael Porter Jr. is another potential target as he comes off a solid season with the Nets. He's got championship experience while bringing shooting and rebounding to Minnesota, but his $40 million cap hit is going to be hard to fit into the team's book, even if it would be an expiring deal.

Trey Murphy is going to be getting plenty of interest, especially with the Pelicans likely to be heading toward a full-scale rebuild. Murphy is the perfect 3-and-D wing for the Timberwolves and is young and under contract for three more seasons, fitting the team's timeline. However, Minnesota doesn't have a ton of draft assets at its disposal to trade. And the Pelicans could likely get more from teams who are likely to convey higher future picks than the Timberwolves.

The Randle conundrum

The biggest question mark for the Timberwolves this summer will be what to do with Julius Randle, who will be 32 next season. He is under contract for two seasons but does have a player option, meaning he could hit free agency after 2026-27. He has a great opportunity to showcase his skills against the Spurs with Edwards sidelined but he doesn't necessarily fit Minnesota's future timeline.

Randle has never been a good floor-spacing forward, which makes his long-term fit a problem. He's a 33.2% career 3-point shooter who only shot better than 35% from 3-point range once, when he connected on 41.4% of his perimeter attempts in 2020-21. He's an average to below average defender. However, the underlying metrics make this more confusing from Minnesota's perspective.

According to nba.com/stats lineup data Timberwolves had the five-man lineup of Edwards-Gobert-Randle-McDaniels-DiVincenzo log 710 minutes during the regular season with a +7.9 net rating. If you swapped Randle for Reid, that five-man combination posted a +13.1 net rating but in a much smaller sample size of 34 minutes. Edwards and Randle's two-man lineup posted a +4.9 net rating, while Edwards and Reid had a +2.0 net rating. Randle plays a physical, downhill game but has generally held up well during the regular season. Reid is the better perimeter shooter, but Randle has the edge as a driver and secondary offensive creator.

DiVincenzo's absence compounds the issue. The Timberwolves could've put more on his plate if they traded Randle in a hypothetical deal for Porter or Murphy, but the sharpshooter is likely out for all of 2026-27. Replacing his production will be tough, and if his recovery goes well, he'll have a strong free agency market in the summer of 2027. It's also not a great look if you trade a player who is out with a long-term injury, especially someone as beloved as DiVincenzo.

I think the Timberwolves will put a feeler out for Antetokounmpo, but if there's a deal involving Randle for a player like Porter or Murphy, I'd lean toward them making that trade.

A potential three-year window

Edwards can be a free agent after the 2028-29 season, and he'll be 27 years old. He's shown no indications of wanting to leave Minnesota, but you can bet the entire league will be angling to have cap space to acquire him. Kevin Garnett made the conference finals one time during his Minnesota years and he stuck around for three years after that lone appearance before ultimately leaving. That was during Garnett's age-31 season.

Edwards has already appeared in two conference finals as he gets set to turn 25. The Timberwolves have methodically built a competitive roster, but they've got to take a hard look at making another big move this summer. For someone as driven and competitive as Edwards, eventually bowing out in the conference finals won't be good enough. The clock is always ticking on superstars, but the Timberwolves have done most of the heavy lifting already. The question is whether they can make that last winning push.