NCAA baseball tournament bracket projections, national seeds after Week 11

NCAA baseball tournament bracket projections, national seeds after Week 11

A little less than one month from selection Monday, the NCAA baseball tournament bubble is starting to take shape.

Projected at the top are season-long stalwarts like UCLA and Georgia Tech. However, several bubble teams could serve as litmus tests for what the committee values.

Would the committee put in a team that is below .500 in Sun Belt play but has a strong RPI, like Texas State or Arkansas State? What about a traditional SEC powerhouse with good conference performances but a poor RPI, such as Vanderbilt? Or a Kentucky team with a better RPI but six straight series losses, including to three conference bottom-feeders?

With a 10-11 conference record and No. 69 RPI, the Commodores currently are projected as the first team out, but a series win over Alabama April 30-May 2 likely would move them into the field. No team with an above-.500 SEC record has ever been left out of a regional.

Kentucky is also projected out despite a No. 39 RPI due to its 9-12 SEC record and series losses to Missouri, South Carolina and LSU. The Tigers, the defending national champions, aren't anywhere near the field after a nine-game SEC losing streak.

There is also some intrigue with the final host spots. Alabama (No. 7) and Southern Cal (No. 9) have top-10 RPIs, but those teams were left out of hosting in this projection — Alabama due to having a below .500 SEC record and the Trojans due to being 0-8 in Quadrant 1 games, and getting swept by UCLA and Nebraska.

These projections are done as if the season ended today. The 2-seeds were seeded and bracketed in groups of four to maintain geography and avoid same-conference matchups, while the 3- and 4-seeds were bracketed based primarily on geography and conference affiliation. Automatic bids were selected based on each conference's current leader, with RPI used as a tiebreaker.