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NCAA baseball tournament bracket projections are shaping up as selection Monday approaches. Top teams include UCLA and Georgia Tech, while bubble teams like Texas State and Vanderbilt raise questions about the selection committee's criteria.
NCAA baseball tournament bracket projections, national seeds after Week 11
A little less than one month from selection Monday, the NCAA baseball tournament bubble is starting to take shape.
Projected at the top are season-long stalwarts like UCLA and Georgia Tech. However, several bubble teams could serve as litmus tests for what the committee values.
Would the committee put in a team that is below .500 in Sun Belt play but has a strong RPI, like Texas State or Arkansas State? What about a traditional SEC powerhouse with good conference performances but a poor RPI, such as Vanderbilt? Or a Kentucky team with a better RPI but six straight series losses, including to three conference bottom-feeders?
With a 10-11 conference record and No. 69 RPI, the Commodores currently are projected as the first team out, but a series win over Alabama April 30-May 2 likely would move them into the field. No team with an above-.500 SEC record has ever been left out of a regional.
Kentucky is also projected out despite a No. 39 RPI due to its 9-12 SEC record and series losses to Missouri, South Carolina and LSU. The Tigers, the defending national champions, aren't anywhere near the field after a nine-game SEC losing streak.
There is also some intrigue with the final host spots. Alabama (No. 7) and Southern Cal (No. 9) have top-10 RPIs, but those teams were left out of hosting in this projection — Alabama due to having a below .500 SEC record and the Trojans due to being 0-8 in Quadrant 1 games, and getting swept by UCLA and Nebraska.
These projections are done as if the season ended today. The 2-seeds were seeded and bracketed in groups of four to maintain geography and avoid same-conference matchups, while the 3- and 4-seeds were bracketed based primarily on geography and conference affiliation. Automatic bids were selected based on each conference's current leader, with RPI used as a tiebreaker.
The latest projections indicate UCLA and Georgia Tech as top seeds, with several bubble teams being evaluated.
Bubble teams include Texas State, Arkansas State, and Vanderbilt, each with varying records and RPIs.
The committee may consider teams with strong RPIs despite poor conference records, creating debate over their inclusion.
Factors include overall record, conference performance, and RPI, which can lead to complex decisions for bubble teams.

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Last four in: UAB, NC State, Texas State, Virginia Tech
First four out: Vanderbilt, Kentucky, UTSA, Arkansas State
*Denotes automatic bid
(1) UCLA*
(32) Oklahoma State
Gonzaga*
Cal Poly*
(16) Florida State
(18) Alabama
UAB
Bethune Cookman*
(8) Auburn
(27) West Virginia
Pittsburgh
Binghamton*
(9) Ole Miss
(24) Boston College
Saint Joseph's*
Bucknell*
(4) Texas
(29) East Carolina
TCU
Tarleton State*
(13) Mississippi State
(20) Cincinnati
Liberty
Murray State*
(5) North Carolina
(28) Tennessee
High Point*
Campbell*
(12) Nebraska
(21) Virginia
Southeast Missouri State*
Oral Roberts*
(3) Texas A&M
(30) Miami
Texas State
Southeastern Louisiana*
(14) Coastal Carolina*
(19) Oklahoma
NC State
Rider*
(6) Oregon State
(25) Oregon
UC Santa Barbara
Nevada*
(11) Kansas
(22) Missouri State
Virginia Tech
Creighton*
(7) Georgia*
(26) UCF
Jacksonville State*
Penn*
(10) Southern Miss
(23) Wake Forest
Miami-Ohio*
Fairleigh Dickinson*
(2) Georgia Tech*
(31) Arkansas
Western Carolina*
North Florida*
(15) Florida
(17) Southern Cal
Arizona State
Wright State*
Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on X @aria_gerson.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: NCAA baseball tournament bracket projections after Week 11