New Jersey Devils RFA Profile: Arseny Gritsyuk

Gritsyuk started out this season on the Devils fourth line, but with his responsible two-way play, high hockey IQ, and a sometimes lethal shot, he gradually earned more ice time. He eventually settled into a third line role for the majority of the season and earned ice time on the second power play unit.

After tallying a few assists over his first few NHL games, Gritsyuk scored his first career NHL goal in the Devils 4-1 win over the Wild back on October 22. And it was a snipe.

Unfortunately for Gritsyuk, he was like many Devils players this season who just went ice cold offensively in the middle of the campaign. He did rebound post-Olympic break with 4 goals and 4 assists before a shoulder injury ended his season. All in all, he finished his rookie campaign with 13 goals and 18 assists in 66 games. His 31 points placed him 13th among all rookies, and while he won’t win the Calder Trophy, he may wind up earning a few down ballot votes as recognition for the campaign he had.

Now that the season is in the rear-view mirror though and looking back on it, I think there’s a lot to like when it comes to Gritsyuk’s game. He’s a much better defensive forward than I think anyone could’ve hoped for. He’s a good skater. He gets in there on the forecheck. And of course, he has one of the better shots on the team.

He also now has a season’s worth of NHL experience under his belt, which is key. We know what his floor is. He can carve out a role as a defensively responsible bottom six winger who can drive offense. But I think he’s versatile enough as a player where he could play anywhere in the lineup and not look out of place. He got some time with Jack Hughes post-Olympics and looked fine, but I could see him fitting in with Nico Hischier as his wingman as well. Chris alluded to this when he said Gritsyuk deserved a bigger role, and I think one could argue he was just as good as Timo Meier or Dawson Mercer were this past season, if not better.

Gritsyuk is also willing to fight everybody to protect Jack Hughes, which you love to see.

Gritsyuk’s ELC concluded at the end of this Devils season. He will have arbitration rights as a pending RFA, assuming the Devils qualify him (spoiler alert: they will). The Devils will maintain his NHL rights until he becomes eligible for UFA following the 2027-28 season.

What will Gritsyuk do going forward?

This is a difficult question to answer, as there are a lot of unknowns moving forward.

We don’t know if Sheldon Keefe will be back as the coach, nor do we know who Sunny Mehta is planning on keeping from the roster he inherited. We also don’t know how Mehta will value Gritsyuk, as we just have the one NHL season under his belt to go off of. And even assuming Gritsyuk is back, what will his role be? Will he be shoehorned into the Top Six? Will he continue his third line role alongside Cody Glass? Can he earn more time on the power play unit?

That said, I could see Gritsyuk being better in his second full NHL season now that he’s been around the league once. He’s now familiar with the speed at which the NHL game is played. He knows he’ll have to get stronger to get to those tougher areas of the ice more consistently. The defensive game is already there for him, but the next step for him as a goal scorer will be picking up on those little nuances and creating separation to get his shot off.

I don’t know what his ceiling will ultimately be as an NHL player, but I do think he has the potential to be a Top-Six caliber winger who scores 20-25 goals a season and contributes around 50 points.

Who are Gritsyuk’s comparables and what is his value?

My natural inclination was to compare Gritsyuk’s rookie NHL season to the rookie season of other players who played multiple seasons in Russia and debuted in their 20s. But I also don’t think you can really compare Gritsyuk to Kirill Kaprizov or Artemi Panarin. Both of them had significantly better rookie campaigns than Gritsyuk did, and both have stood the test of time as elite-level NHL wingers. I’d be thrilled if Gritsyuk was half the offensive force that they are.

The next player that came to mind was a former Devils draft pick out of Belarus that we should all be familiar with in Yegor Sharangovich. But it’s another imperfect comparison.

Yes, they do share some similarities as players. Sharangovich is a little taller but they have similar frames as players. They both possess what can be termed a lethal shot. And when their shot is going well, they can pump in goals as a reliable source of secondary offense.

But I view Gritsyuk as more of a complete two-way forward, despite Sharangovich regularly seeing time on a penalty killing unit. I also view Sharangovich as a player who almost has to be shooting well above expected to have positive value in your lineup. Calgary gave him 5 years and $5.75M after a 31 goal season where he shot over 17%, but he has struggled enough the last two years where that contract doesn’t look like the greatest investment after the fact.

Part of why I bring up Sharangovich as a potential comp though is the contract he signed in between that deal and the $2M AAV for 2 year deal he signed out of his ELC. As a 25 year old, he signed a $3.10M AAV deal for 2 years shortly after being traded to Calgary in 2023. Sharangovich would’ve been eligible for UFA at the end of that deal but Calgary moved to sign him to an extension after his career year and buy out five UFA years. I do think that $3.10M AAV is in line with Gritsyuk’s production at that age, and even accounting for the growing cap ceiling and inflation, it makes his AFP analytics projection of $3.55M for 2 years on a bridge seem reasonable.

I did struggle to come up with other comparables for Gritsyuk though, so I decided to reach out to Chris and see what he thought and he threw out a few interesting names. He noted that Gritsyuk had similar scoring rates to Alex Tuch and Adrian Kempe at the same age. Both of those players obviously had far more NHL experience through their age 25 season than Gritsyuk does, but they also both found another level and developed into top line scoring wingers. He also mentioned Jake DeBrusk, but that would be the opposite end of the spectrum as he’s never really proven to be anything more than a 20-ish goal, 40-ish point winger.

After tallying 52 points with the Golden Knights in 18-19. Tuch signed a long-term deal for $4.75M AAV over 7 years. That deal has proven to be an exceptional value as he has three 30+ goal seasons in Buffalo and is set up nicely to cash in as THE premier free agent of this year’s class on July 1.

Kempe is finishing up 4 year deal worth $5.5M AAV that he signed after his breakout season in 21-22 when he scored 35 goals with the Kings. He has since signed a new deal with the Kings to bypass free agency, extending for $10.63M AAV over the next 8 seasons.

DeBrusk signed a series of bridge deals with the Bruins, beginning with a 2-year, $3.68M AAV deal after a 35 point campaign in 2019-20. He followed that up with another 2-year deal, this time for $4M. DeBrusk cashed in on a long-term deal with the Vancouver Canucks when he hit free agency in 2024.

I’ve rattled off a bunch of names, but I don’t think there’s a perfect comp unfortunately. His fellow countrymen in Panarin and Kaprizov are simply better players, and just because guys like Tuch and Kempe have similar scoring rates doesn’t mean they’re similar players. But I did want to cover a wide base of guys with similar numbers and what they ultimately received.

What would I do with Gritsyuk and what do I think the Devils will do?

According to AFP analytics, Gritsyuk is projected for either a 2-year bridge deal worth $3.55M AAV or a 5-year longer-term deal worth $6.58M AAV.

On the surface, both of those projections might seem a little high given Gritsyuk’s lack of experience. But I’m also still operating of the mindset that yesterday’s prices should be today’s prices and that’s not the case. The cap is continuing to increase and contracts that might’ve been good 2 years ago might not be today. I can’t blame Gritsyuk for looking to cash in when athletes only get so many opportunities to do so. The proverbial pie is getting bigger and he wants his fair slice of it.

I’m not sure I love the idea of a long-term deal though given his relatively small track record. Especially at a time where the Devils simply don’t have a ton of salary cap flexibility. I’m not saying they should get rid of Gritsyuk but the cap is something to consider, especially if he doesn’t take those next steps in his development. And I think if I were Gritsyuk, I wouldn’t want to sign long-term yet if I think I have much more to give as a player.

I think the approach that might make the most sense for now is something similar to what the Flames did with Sharangovich. A bridge that locks in his AAV for the next two years, and if he has a good season in 2026-27, we can talk about a longer-term deal next summer when we have a better idea of who the player is.

We don’t know how Sunny Mehta will manage the salary cap, but I can’t imagine that he’s going to be on board with paying so many guys market rate like Fitzgerald did before him. Then again, given the aforementioned salary cap situation, Mehta might be content to get Gritsyuk locked in at as low an AAV as possible for the next two seasons while money is tight and worry about 2028 when it gets here. Especially if he has any grandeurs of completing the Hughes triforce next summer or trying to land another big fish on top of a potential Nico Hischier extension.

I do wonder if one potential option that makes sense for the Devils is to try to meet Gritsyuk somewhere in the middle with a 3 or 4 year deal in the $5.5M AAV range that buys out one year or two of his UFA years. The reason I bring that up is because we’re seeing more and more players sign shorter-term deals. Not only does it keep pressure on the team to put a winner around them, but it gives the player an opportunity to test the market again sooner at a time where the salary cap ceiling is exploding. Gritsyuk could sign a 4 year deal this summer and still be in a position to sign a long-term deal when he’s 29 and there’s a larger body of work and more proof of concept with him. Like I said, I don’t think it makes a ton of sense for Gritsyuk to want to max out on term right now.

With cap space at a premium though, I think the most likely move is a bridge. My contract prediction is 2 years at $3.5M AAV.