Drew Allar's selection by the Steelers in the NFL Draft is compared to a lottery ticket, indicating a low probability of significant success. Historical data suggests that the chances of a high payout from such picks are minimal.
Key points
Drew Allar picked by the Steelers in the NFL Draft
On the walk to and from the uptown Pittsburgh lot where I parked my car while attending the opening round of the 2026 NFL Draft, I took a shortcut from the Roberto Clemente Bridge toward the Acrisure Stadium grounds by walking through the outfield Riverwalk section at PNC Park.
The concession stands and restrooms were open. There was a festival atmosphere that included more than a thousand fans enjoying the scene. And each adult who entered had the opportunity to be handed a Pennsylvania Lottery scratch-off ticket by someone working the gate. I was given one on the way in, two on the way out.
My odds of winning maybe weren't great, but there was literally no cost. Wish we could say the same about the likelihood of success for Drew Allar, the Steelers' third-round pick.
I mean, yes, it's a lottery-level proposition that his selection will turn out to be genuinely rewarding. The cost the Steelers paid, however, is far beyond free.
The selection of Allar is being justified on the basis of his obvious physical gifts. He is 6-5, 228 pounds. He has been timed at 4.86 seconds in the 40-yard dash. He is widely acknowledged to have a powerful throwing arm, although his accuracy numbers in his two most recent seasons at Penn State were relatively average.
Q&A
What does Drew Allar's draft pick mean for the Steelers?
Drew Allar's draft pick is seen as a risky investment with a small chance of yielding significant success for the Steelers.
How does NFL draft history relate to Drew Allar's chances?
NFL draft history indicates that players picked in similar situations as Drew Allar often have low probabilities of becoming impactful players.
What are the odds of success for lottery ticket draft picks in the NFL?
Lottery ticket draft picks, like Drew Allar, typically have a small chance of delivering a high return on investment based on historical trends.
What was the atmosphere like during the 2026 NFL Draft?
The atmosphere during the 2026 NFL Draft was festive, with over a thousand fans enjoying the event at Acrisure Stadium.
Related Articles
Sports
Kane praises 'amazing defending' in nine-goal CL classic - but Rooney disagrees
Kane calls defending 'amazing' in Bayern's 5-4 loss to PSG, Rooney disagrees.
Sky Sports··1 min read
Sports
This UDFA signing might be Chiefs' best pickup of 2026 NFL offseason
Yahoo Sports·
NHL·Recap
McDavid is a game-time decision as the Oilers face elimination in Game 5 against the Ducks
Connor McDavid is a game-time decision as Oilers face elimination in Game 5 against the Ducks.
Yahoo Sports··1 min read
NBA·Preview
Where to watch Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs Game 5 NBA playoffs: Live stream, start time, TV channel, odds for Tuesday, April 28
Catch Game 5 of Spurs vs. Blazers on April 28 at 9:30 p.m. ET!
See every story in Sports â including breaking news and analysis.
This is what the Steelers are hoping they can address with high-end instruction from head coach Mike McCarthy, quarterbacks coach Tom Arth, offensive coordinator Brian Angelichio and senior offensive assistant Frank Cignetti Jr.
However, the history of mid-round quarterback selections in the NFL Draft tell us, as Vince Lombardi would say, "Hope is not a strategy."
In the first 25 drafts of this century, the only quarterback selected in the third or fourth round who has become an unquestioned, big-game-winning star is Russell Wilson, chosen by the Seahawks with the 75th pick in 2012. He has been selected for 10 Pro Bowls, appeared in two Super Bowls and won a single Lombardi Trophy.
He owns half of all playoff victories earned by quarterbacks in this category. Only three of those players have won multiple playoff games as a starting QB. Only two â Wilson and Nick Foles â own postseason records above the .500 mark.
The small group of mid-round quarterback success stories from 2000 and beyond stops with Cowboys veteran Dak Prescott and journeyman Kirk Cousins. As Tony Kornheiser would say, "That's it; that's the list."
A fourth-round pick in 2016 â chosen after Cody Kessler and Connor Cook â Prescott has reached four Pro Bowls and passed for 35,989 yards (32nd in league history) and 243 touchdowns (33rd). But he lost five of the seven playoff games in which he appeared.
Chosen in the fourth round in 2012, Cousins also has made four Pro Bowls and stands 15th in TD passes at 298 and 19th in passing yards with 44,700. But he was the winner in only one of his four playoff starts.
Is that the goal?
A large number of those who follow the Steelers or cover them complained from 2017 until Mike Tomlin chose to resign in January about the team's playoff victory drought. If both reaching the playoffs and succeeding once there are the targets, a third-round QB appears extremely unlikely to lead in that direction.
The success rate of mid-round quarterbacks chosen since 2000 is, frankly, appalling:
Only 27 percent of quarterbacks chosen in the third or fourth round started double-digit games in at least one season.
Only 16 percent earned the chance to start a second full season.
Only 10 percent own career winning records.
Only five percent own career records of more than three games over .500.
More than 31 percent never started a single NFL game.
More than 42 percent never won a single NFL start.
More than 12 percent never appeared in an NFL game.
So, as Allar's name was called, history was shouting to be heard above the Steelers fans in the robust draft audience. He's almost four times as likely never to play in a regular-season game as he is to win multiple playoff games as an NFL quarterback.
The Steelers might have chosen defensive tackle Chris McClellan of Missouri, who was the next player off the board to the Packers, or LSU safety A.J. Haulcy, who went next to the Colts. The Steelers need depth at both of those positions.
In 2018, a little while after the Steelers chose Mason Rudolph in the third round of that year's draft, incumbent QB Ben Roethlisberger expressed some degree of surprise â and one might say frustration â with that decision.
"I thought that maybe in the third round, you can get some really good football players that can help this team win now," he told radio station 93.7 The Fan at the time. "I just don't know how backing up or being third â well, who knows where he's going to fall on the depth chart? â helps us win now."
Pro Bowl tight end Mark Andrews, who has caught 484 passes for the rival Ravens and was named three times to the Pro Bowl, was chosen 10 slots after Rudolph. Tackle Orlando Brown Jr., who has made four Pro Bowls with the Ravens and Chiefs and earned a Super Bowl ring by starting for KC in Super Bowl 57, went seven picks after Rudolph was chosen.
The opportunity cost was high, and that's even with Rudolph ranking among the most successful mid-round quarterback selections this century.
No, really.
Rudolph ranks 15th among QBs drafted in the third or fourth round since 2000 in touchdown passes (though he's only thrown 30), 16th in passing yards (4,925) and 17th in starts (19). With a record as .500 as one possibly can achieve (9-9-1), Rudolph actually stands seventh in winning percentage.
If Allar turned out to be an average mid-round quarterback, it might be more like Brodie Croyle, who was considered to have the requisite physical tools to be a quality player at his position and was taken with the 85th pick in the 2006 NFL Draft. Croyle threw for 1,669 yards and eight touchdowns for the Chiefs.
