NFL Draft playbook: 10 rules include hold the phone on 'F them picks', Howie Roseman trade clinic

Rams First-Round Picks Since 2017

• 2017: Traded to Titans in Jared Goff deal
• 2018: Traded to Patriots in Brandin Cooks deal
• 2019: Traded to Falcons for picks
• 2020: Traded to Jaguars for Jalen Ramsey
• 2021: Traded to Jaguars for Jalen Ramsey
• 2022: Traded to Lions for Matthew Stafford
• 2023: Traded to Lions for Matthew Stafford
• 2024: Drafted Jared Verse
• 2025: Traded to Falcons for future first-round pick
• 2026: Traded to Chiefs for Trent McDuffie

The Rams have thrived off this strategy (and they've hit home runs later in the draft like Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams) but you know the saying, often imitated, never duplicated. It's becoming increasingly popular (there's been three trades featuring a first-round pick for a veteran player this offseason) but in the grand scheme of things it's not the wisest strategy.

Here's a list of all the trades in the last 10 years featuring a first-round pick for a player. I focused on the 23 between 2016-22 as we can't fairly pick a winner for the six trades in the last calendar year. By my count, the team acquiring the picks has a 13-8-2 "record" in these deals.

First-round picks traded for veterans in last 10 years

Big winners from the picks side include:

• Texans: Used picks from Deshaun Watson trade to net haul including Will Anderson Jr. and Kamari Lassiter
• Seahawks: Picks from Russell Wilson deal netted Devon Witherspoon, Boye Mafe and Charles Cross (among others)
• Eagles: Used conditional first-round pick from Carson Wentz deal to acquire A.J. Brown
• Jets: Drafted Garrett Wilson with one of two first-round picks from Jamal Adams trade
• Giants: Used first-round pick for Odell Beckham Jr. trade (to Browns) for Dexter Lawrence

2. Sharks like Howie Roseman charge teams premium to trade up

Trading picks for proven commodities is the sexy (and trendy) move, much like trading up in the draft. After all, who doesn't want to be like the Chiefs and trade up for Patrick Mahomes?

Much like the case study on 'F them picks', though, the value is in the picks (moving down). Teams treat trading up in the draft like a credit card. They will overpay to move up and get "their guy" and pay the bill (and hefty interest rates) at a later date.

GMs are predicting a high volume of trades during this draft per USA TODAY's Jarrett Bell, which means the usual sharks could be smelling blood in the water. Howie Roseman (Eagles GM), Les Snead (Rams GM) and John Schneider (Seahawks GM) have been among the most willing trade partners in the draft.

• Roseman has made 31 trade-downs in the last 15 years (20 trade-ups)
• Snead has made 25 trade-downs since taking over in 2012 (15 trade-ups)
• Schneider has made 24 trade-downs in the last 15 years (13 trade-ups)

It feels like Roseman is getting flowers every year for his trades, and perhaps none were better than 2022 when he traded the 16th and 19th picks to the Saints for the 18th pick, a future first, second among other picks. It ultimately netted the Eagles A.J. Brown, Jalen Carter and Cooper DeJean, while New Orleans most notably got Chris Olave.

It's been reported that Brown will not be with the Eagles by the start of the 2026 season. Until that trade comes to fruition I'll be keeping my eye on Roseman wheeling and dealing in the draft, again.

Another candidate for moving back is the Seahawks, who have the fewest picks (four) in the 2026 NFL Draft. Schneider shared at Monday's pre-draft presser that it's no secret Seattle is looking to move back from its first-round pick. Sounds like a hot spot for a trade up for a quarterback like Alabama's Ty Simpson if he's still on the board.

Trading up for a quarterback comes with an even greater premium (virtually every trade up for a quarterback in the common draft has been an overpay by some trade value charts) so any team that can get on the receiving end of one of those deals will be licking its chops.

3. 40 times are overrated

There's endless information at our fingertips to evaluate prospects. The most talked about metric, 40-yard times, is among the least important. Just look at the top five receiving leaders in the NFL last season. Only Ja'Marr Chase ran a sub-4.40 40 time. Puka Nacua and Amon-Ra St. Brown were both over 4.50.

So don't concern yourself with Carnell Tate's 4.53 40-yard time at the 2026 combine.

2025 Rec Yard Leaders

Pro Football Focus recently did a study on wide receiver production by 40-yard dash time and there's almost no correlation between time and NFL production.

WR Production by 40 Time in past five seasons

The list of fastest 40 times on record at the NFL combine says a lot, too. The only great player on that list is Chris Johnson.

Fastest 40-yard times at NFL combine since 2000

The Raiders will tell you firsthand, 40 times are overrated. They drafted Stanford Routt in 2005 (4.27), Fabian Washington is 2005 (4.29), Darrius Heyward-Bey in 2009 (4.30), Jacoby Ford in 2010 (4.28), Demarcus Van Dyke in 2011 (4.28) and Henry Ruggs III in 2020 (4.27). All burners and hardly any NFL production.

The Chiefs have yet to get the most out of Xavier Worthy (combine record 4.21 40 time in 2024), even with Patrick Mahomes throwing his way.

4. Meet me at the intersection of production and projection

Production vs. projection is a popular debate on judging NFL prospects and one case from 2025 proves (so far) you can't put your eggs all in one basket. The Bengals drafted edge rusher Shemar Stewart in the first round last year. He had 4.5 sacks in 37 career college games but had measurables that drew comparisons to Myles Garrett (6-5, 267 pounds, 4.59 40 time, 40-inch vertical). The return on investment says bust so far. Stewart had 1.0 sack in eight games last season.

There may not be a 2026 prospect with a grand canyon sized gap between their production and projection like Stewart, but the top two edge rushers make for an interesting debate.

The NFLIQ chat tool powered by Amazon Quick uses production and measurables to break down this case.

David Bailey had an elite NGS Production Score of 98 after ranking top two in the nation in sacks (14.5) and pressures (81) last year. He also has impressive measurables (4.50 40 time, 33.75" arms, 79.75" wingspan) that add up to a 64% starter probability and 20% Pro Bowl probability.

Avrell Reese's production (69 tackles, 6.5 sacks last season) and versatility as an edge rusher and off-ball linebacker (51% of snaps at OLB in 2025) plus his measurables (4.46 40, 32.5" arms, 79.5" wingspan) are reasons he has a higher ceiling with a 72% starter probability and 36% Pro Bowl probability.

It's a classic production vs projection debate that could decide the No. 2 pick to the Jets. And if that wasn't enough, the next projected pass rusher off the board is Rueben Bain Jr., who was the most productive pass rusher in the nation (83 pressures in 2025 were most by any FBS player since 2017) but would have the shortest arms by a first-round pick edge rusher on record.

5. Draft players who are among best available and fill a team need

Another fascinating debate topic between draft analysts is whether to prioritize drafting the best available player or draft based on team need.

Lions GM Brad Holmes spelled out the case against drafting based on need last week: "I think sometimes you can get in trouble by doing that because you might start to reach for a certain player because you feel like you need that position and you never want to feel that way when you select a player."

Few GMs have nailed the draft better than Holmes lately, who ranks in the bottom 10 among current GMs in terms of drafting for need (50% of time), according to CBS SportsLine.

The Raiders come to mind as a cautionary tale in this case. They drafted Alex Leatherwood 17th overall in 2021 to fill a hole at right tackle. It was considered a massive reach and he ended up starting just 17 games in his NFL career.

The other potential pitfall here is you could draft for a need that doesn't even exist in a year while another one emerges that season due to injury.

Drafting the best available player has its downside too. Giants GM Joe Schoen drafts based on best available at the highest rate among any current GM per Sportsline. His first two picks were Evan Neal and Kayvon Thibodeaux back in 2022, who haven't provided much return on investment. Schoen will be put to the test with multiple top 10 picks on Thursday.

Let's face it, the draft is an inexact science. The best thing to do is to find the sweet spot of best available players that meet your team's needs. Chiefs GM Brett Veach ranks top five in both regards among current GMs.

6. Position stack to fill team needs

This doesn't mean you should ignore your team needs, though. You might even want to consider double dipping. The draft can be like throwing darts at a dart board. You really don't know where they are going to hit. So position stack. Add multiple players at one position of need.

You can look at a pair of success stories in 2024 to see how they can play out. The Eagles took cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean with their top two picks that year and went from one of the worst to best secondaries in the NFL en route to a Super Bowl.

The Rams drafted defensive lineman Jared Verse and Braden Fiske with their top two picks in 2024 after Aaron Donald retired. Los Angeles' young front (including Byron Young and Kobie Turner) racked up 16 sacks in two playoff games that year.

The Browns are still hoping their position stack at quarterback pays off (they are the Browns so it probably won't). They drafted both Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders in 2025.

Here are some of the most glaring needs where contenders could position stack in this draft:

• Chiefs at DB after losing Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson and Bryan Cook
• Cowboys at edge rusher after trading Micah Parsons last offseason
• Bengals at offensive line to help prevent the next Joe Burrow injury
• Bills at wide receiver and edge rusher. Offseason adds of DJ Moore and Bradley Chubb aren't enough.

7. It's OK to draft non-premier positions in the first round

The premier positions in the NFL are quarterback, left tackle, edge rusher, wide receiver and cornerback. These are the positions most correlated with winning and the priorities at the top of the NFL Draft.

But, teams should not discount great prospects at other positions, especially in 2026 when there are a handful of players that fit the ball:

• RB Jeremiyah Love
• TE Kenyon Sadiq
• DT Peter Woods
• Off-ball LBs Avrell Reese, Sonny Styles
• S Caleb Downs

It's rare to see these many prospects at non-premier positions at the top of draft boards. This could be the first time since 2012 a RB (Jeremiyah Love), off-ball LB (Avrell Reese, Sonny Styles) and safety (Caleb Downs) are selected in the top 10 of the same draft (2012: RB Trent Richardson, LB Luke Kuechly, S Mark Barron).

I get the logic behind discounting these positions in the first round. The salary structure is the same in the draft, no matter the position. However, veterans at non-premier positions make less. So, in a perfect world, it's cheaper to draft a wide receiver in the first round and sign a starting safety in free agency than the other way around.

However, if you're staring at one of the best available players and they fill a big need, there's no shame in taking them high in the draft regardless of position. Just don't be the Raiders, who drafted kicker Sebastian Janikowski in the first round in 2000.

Recent prospects selected in the top 10 at non-premier positions pass the smell test:

• Last 7 RB drafted in top 10: Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Ashton Jeanty
• Last 7 off-ball LB drafted in top 10: Isaiah Simmons, Devin White, Devin Bush, Roquan Smith, Anthony Barr, Luke Kuechly, Rolando McClain
• Last 7 safeties drafted in top 10: Jamal Adams, Mark Barron, Eric Berry, LaRon Landry, Michael Huff, Donte Whitner, Sean Taylor

Plus, let's not forget the prospects who are in discussion for top10 picks this year bring value beyond their position. Jeremiyah Love drew rave reviews for his pass-catching ability at the combine. Caleb Downs could have a Nick Emmanwori-type impact as a box safety and slot corner. Avrell Reese could transition from primary off-ball linebacker to full-time edge rusher.

8. You can count on NFL Position U

In the unpredictable world of the NFL Draft can we count on anything but the unexpected? Yes, we can count on the Alabama RB factory, Notre Dame offensive lineman, Iowa tight end U, Ohio State wide receiver U, LSU cornerback U and more. Position "U" is always one of the coolest elements of draft talk.

Notable Colleges with Positional Success in NFL

• Lincoln Riley QB: Baker Mayfield (2018), Kyler Murray (2019), Jalen Hurts (2020), Caleb Williams (2023)

• Alabama RB: Mark Ingram (2011), Eddie Lacy (2013), Derrick Henry (2016), Josh Jacobs (2019), Jahmyr Gibbs (2023)

• Notre Dame OL: Zack Martin (2014), Ronnie Stanley (2016), Mike McClinchey (2018), Quenton Nelson (2018), Joe Alt (2024)

• Iowa TE: George Kittle (2017), T.J. Hockenson (2019), Sam LaPorta (2023)

• Ohio State WR: Michael Thomas (2016), Terry McLaurin (2019), Garrett Wilson (2022), Chris Olave (2022), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (2023), Marvin Harrison Jr. (2024), Emeka Egbuka (2025).

• LSU CB: Derek Stingley Jr. (2022), Tre'Davious White (2017), Morris Claiborne (2012) and Patrick Peterson (2011).

For 2026, that means Ohio State WR Carnell Tate and LSU CB Mansoor Delane are close to sure things in the first round.

9. Buyer beware on weak quarterback classes

Be weary of trading up for Ty Simpson or any quarterback in 2026, though. Quarterbacks in historically weak quarterback classes (like 2026 could be) are mostly busts.

CBS Sports highest-ranked QB prospects in 2026

There's been seven draft classes with two or fewer quarterbacks selected in the first round in the last 20 years.

Of the 12 QBs drafted in the first round in those classes, only two got a second contract with their draft team (Matt Ryan/Joe Flacco: both 2008). Half had 20 or fewer pass TD in their entire NFL careers (includes Pickett)

Of the 78 QBs drafted (in any round) in those seven classes, only five made a Pro Bowl, only seven started 50+ games and only two started 100+ games (Joe Flacco, Matt Ryan).

Fewest QBs drafted in first round in last 20 years

10. The draft is impossible to perfect but the rewards are great

Even with endless knowledge at our fingertips, the wisdom to make the perfect picks still eludes us. Incredibly, the slimmest margin of one pick could be the difference between an all-time great player and all-time bust (the top two picks in 1998 were Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf).

There's no secret formula, yet. No amount of film, stats, combine measurables, analytics, trends or AI up to this point add up to a bulletproof system to drafting successful players.

Fifty-eight percent of players drafted in the first round in the 2010s lasted at least five seasons with their draft team (43% of quarterbacks). Quarterback is the most important position in sports and teams still get it wrong in the first round over half the time. It isn't even a coin flip.

The draft is a gamble that fittingly comes with rich rewards. If your franchise can draft and develop players, they are going to be good. Based on Pro Football reference's approximate value metric (places single value on every player with their draft team) the seven best drafting teams since 2000 are the Steelers, Saints, Chargers, Packers, Cowboys, Patriots and Ravens, who all have winning records this century.

And of course, the most overlooked part of the draft (by the public) produces so many important players. Nearly one-third of playing time in 2025 came from Day 3 picks (Rounds 4-7). The winningest player in NFL history (Tom Brady) was the 199th overall pick in 2000.