NFL schedule predictions: Win-loss totals, playoff projections after 2026 schedule release

NFL schedule predictions: Win-loss totals, playoff projections after 2026 schedule release originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

The 2026 NFL schedule is here, and now we know when all 32 teams will play their 17 games.

Every team has six division contests, six more conference foes and five interconference challenges. Based on a set rotation of opponents, however, all slates are not created equal.

Looking at the released games, that will either help or hamper a team's win total, here's an early look at whether every team is set up to deliver or disappoint in the upcoming season.

Early 2026 NFL season predictions

(Over/under win totals per DraftKings)

NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles (OVER 10.5 wins)

The Eagles have some big offensive changes with a new system and wide receiver A.J. Brown still on tap to be traded before the summer. But they have a strong winning floor thanks to defense and a high baseline of experienced and young talent.

2. Dallas Cowboys (OVER 8.5 wins)

The Cowboys wanted to get their defense to a respectable level and borrowed from the Eagles' scheme and invested plenty in the right personnel for the new base 3-4. The offense can score plenty and will keep them above .500 with a push for a wild-card spot.

3. New York Giants (OVER 7.5 wins)

The Giants also should be in the hunt to be one of the seven NFC playoff teams with new coach John Harbaugh building on positive vibes with Jaxson Dart getting let loose as a second-year QB in a new-look offense.

4. Washington Commanders (UNDER 7.5 wins)

The Commanders are hoping they can push for their playoff contention status of 2024 with a healthy Jayden Daniels, but the division has gotten tougher overall to think it will take more than one year to rebound under Dan Quinn.

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NFC North

Erin Hooley/AP Photo

1. Chicago Bears (OVER 9.5 wins)

The Bears have a brutal schedule after their first-place breakthrough with Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams, but they can meet the challenge with a rising loaded roster and repeat in the difficult division.

2. Detroit Lions (OVER 10.5 wins)

The Lions are set up to rebound with a reload of their offense in a new scheme and also continue to work on improving the defense. Dan Campbell's motivation will produce playoff results again.

3. Green Bay Packers (OVER 10.5 wins)

The Packers will be right there, trying to stay with the Bears and Lions, but they have more offensive questions around the QB. They also took big defensive hits with Micah Parsons tearing up his knee late last season and play-caller Jeff Hafley leaving for Miami.

4. Minnesota Vikings (UNDER 8.5 wins)

The Vikings need to figure out whether Kyler Murray can raise their quarterback play, displacing J.J. McCarthy for Kevin O'Connell's passing game. The defense will have more pressure to make big plays with a few personnel losses for Brian Flores.

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NFC South

1. New Orleans Saints (OVER 7.5 wins)

The Saints are the most intriguing team to steal the league's weakest division with good buzz around Kellen Moore's offense and Brandon Staley's defense, led by the second-year upside of QB Tyler Shough.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (UNDER 8.5 wins)

The Buccaneers lost their edge on the division and then lost venerable wide receiver Mike Evans in the offseason. They also are needing some key defensive changes for Todd Bowles, enough to think they will be denied by a playoff appearance.

3. Carolina Panthers (UNDER 6.5 wins)

The Panthers' reward for taking the South from the Bucs is a much tougher schedule as a first-place team, putting a lot of undue pressure on Dave Canales and Bryce Young.

4. Atlanta Falcons (UNDER 6.5 wins)

The Falcons are figuring out QB again with Tua Tagovailoa vs. Michael Penix Jr. as they make wholesale coaching, front office and personnel changes. That will make it difficult for Kevin Stefanski to work out of the cellar with his new team at first.

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NFC West

1. Seattle Seahawks (OVER 10.5 wins)

The Seahawks won't be catching anyone by surprise but did well to mitigate personnel losses, replacing them well, save for losing offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak. They are well-positioned to repeat with Mike Macdonald's defense.

2. Los Angeles Rams (OVER 10.5 wins)

The Rams will be right there with the Seahawks, battling for the division and conference titles again as they shored up their one key weakness in the secondary. Matthew Stafford will keep playing close to his MVP level.

3. San Francisco 49ers (OVER 10.5 wins)

The 49ers managed their key injuries well last season and should be game to deliver with an improving defense and a high floor on offense.

4. Arizona Cardinals (UNDER 4.5 wins)

The Cardinals are once again overmatched in the division as they transition again with Mike LaFleur as head coach and some quarterback questions. The defense got only limited help in catching up with the other three teams.

NFC playoff team projections

1. Chicago Bears
2. Philadelphia Eagles
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. New Orleans Saints
5. Los Angeles Rams
6. San Francisco 49ers
7. Detroit Lions

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AFC East

1. Buffalo Bills (OVER 10.5 wins)

The Bills needed to shake things up a little by replacing Sean McDermott with a promoted Joe Brady. That will lead to continued top play from Josh Allen, now armed with DJ Moore, and some needed new fire for the defense.

2. New England Patriots (UNDER 10.5 wins)

The Patriots will come back to the pack a little with a mild Super Bowl hangover and limited breaks on the schedule, but they still have the punch with Drake Maye and the defense to get a wild-card berth.

3. New York Jets (UNDER 5.5 wins)

The Jets are trying to put duct tape on their offense with Geno Smith and Frank Reich and at least invested well to improve the skill positions. Aaron Glenn's defense can still underwhelm.

4. Miami Dolphins (UNDER 4.5 wins)

The Dolphins are undergoing a major roster overhaul and trying to keep things together offensively, minus Mike McDaniel, with Malik Willis and De'Von Achane. They figure to be one of the league's worst teams.

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AFC North

1. Baltimore Ravens (OVER 10.5 wins)

The Ravens should return to roost with Jesse Minter replacing John Harbaugh well coming from Jim Harbaugh. Minter will get the defense closer to usual standards, while Lamar Jackson benefits from another dynamic offensive change.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (OVER 9.5 wins)

The Bengals just need a healthy Joe Burrow to get to this level and compete for a playoff spot, even with a defense in transition. The pressure will be on Zac Taylor to channel more of the success from five seasons ago.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (OVER 8.5 wins)

The Steelers have Mike McCarthy replacing Mike Tomlin, but they can work toward posting another winning season with defense and a presumed Aaron Rodgers-led offense providing enough to compete for a wild-card spot.

4. Cleveland Browns (UNDER 6.5 wins)

The Browns are starting over with Todd Monken as coach and aren't sure about their quarterback situation. The defense can do only so much with Myles Garrett again.

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AFC South

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (OVER 9.5 wins)

The Jaguars should feel confident that Trevor Lawrence can build on his initial success in Liam Coen's offense as they also get more big plays from the defense.

2. Houston Texans (UNDER 9.5 wins)

The Texans lost their grip on the division and had a rough ending in the wild-card playoffs in New England. It's uncertain if they did enough offensively to boost C.J. Stroud to take back the division.

3. Indianapolis Colts (UNDER 9.5 wins)

The Colts are expecting to go back to competing for the division with a healthy Daniel Jones, but their defense has some questions to say they are not quite as complete as the two teams above them.

4. Tennessee Titans (UNDER 6.5 wins)

The Titans are getting some second-year buzz around Cam Ward with new coach Robert Saleh and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, but their turnaround seems more likely to come in 2027.

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AFC West

1. Kansas City Chiefs (OVER 10.5 wins)

The Chiefs are expected to rebound big-time with a healthy Patrick Mahomes leading a more explosive and balanced offense beyond a returning Travis Kelce. The defense also got a needed reboot for Steve Spagnuolo.

2. Denver Broncos (OVER 9.5 wins)

The Broncos should make the playoffs again with their high floor created by a dominant defense and will keep from slipping too much by improving what's around Bo Nix.

3. Los Angeles Chargers (UNDER 10.5 wins)

The Chargers were fortunate to win 11 games again last season, and should the Chiefs come back to match the Broncos, Harbaugh's team might lose some key ground with a change at both coordinators.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (UNDER 5.5 wins)

The Raiders are getting some buzz for the rookie season of Fernando Mendoza, and they should improve a lot offensively, but the defense still has many questions behind Maxx Crosby.

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AFC playoff team projections

1. Buffalo Bills
2. Kansas City Chiefs
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Baltimore Ravens
5. New England Patriots
6. Denver Broncos
7. Cincinnati Bengals

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