NHL Draft Lottery Results Will Heavily Influence the Blackhawks Offseason

Why Second Overall?

Although the order is debatable, the top two picks stay consistent across many mocks. Gavin McKenna, out of Penn State, is widely considered the first overall pick. McKenna seems to be a boom or bust prospect due to his high-level of raw talent at such a young age.

He’s a skinnier guy with some physical questions to be answered, but he is simply undeniable when it comes to his skill set. A lot of the questions around McKenna are similar to those of his distant cousin Connor Bedard, who seems to be doing just fine in the show.

Ivar Stenberg with Frölunda HC of the SHL has a very similar report. It’s hard to compare the two, given how different the SHL pathway is from the CHL-NCAA pathway that McKenna took. Playing against professional competition in the SHL might make Stenberg a bit more pro-ready. Ultimately, they both have one thing in common. They are true wingers with infinite opportunity as soon as next season if selected by Chicago.

If the Blackhawks select in the top two, then great. They can land one of those two talents, bolstering an already rich prospect pool. More moves to follow, but the pressure of bringing in a big-time forward is slightly reduced. If they have a similar fate to the 2025 draft lottery, it may not be as clear with the remaining selections.

What If They Fall Below Second?

Kyle Davidson, if faced with the third or fourth overall pick, should consider trading the pick. Although there is excellent talent at those picks, they are both likely to be defenseman.

Chase Reid seems to be one of the next picks, and rightfully so. The right-handed defenseman with the Soo Greyhounds of the OHL is over a point per game. After a year at Michigan State next year, he’ll come into his rookie season as a Calder Trophy contender.

Keaton Verhoeff is also a deeply intriguing prospect. At just 17 years old, Verhoeff had an excellent freshman season at North Dakota. Standing 6-foot-4 and 212 pounds, anyone who selects Verhoeff will have a future weapon on their blueline. Some questions remain on his defensive consistency, but that should not deter defense-needy teams from picking Verhoeff with the third or fourth overall pick.

There are very few instances where a lottery team should make draft day decisions based on need, but this could be one of them. Both Reid and Verhoeff are excellent players, but Chicago needs another forward, and Bedard needs another linemate. Not years from now, but by the start of next season. It’s easier said than done, so what should their approach be?

Trade Prospects and Draft Capital

The Davidson regime has been the best of any front office in collecting draft capital. The Blackhawks own 11 draft picks in the first three rounds of the 2026 and 2027 drafts.

In 2027, the Blackhawks can have as many as three first-round picks, depending on the status of the Edmonton conditional pick acquired at the trade deadline. That’s some serious firepower, but what good does a prospect with a three-to-four-year timeline do for a team that’s trying to push for the playoffs next season?

Many teams have had their star players in trade talks. Jason Robertson, Auston Matthews, Matthew Knies, and Brady Tkachuk have all been floated around in this discussion. Each of these players would provide a unique, yet incredibly valuable role to the Blackhawks.

Several trades can be used as a baseline, but none better than Mikko Rantanen getting sent to Dallas. In the trade, Dallas sent Logan Stankoven, two future first-round picks, and two future third-round picks. At the time, Stankoven was in the middle of his first full season, making this trade similar to where the Blackhawks stand with their wealth of young talent.

Another interesting trade, assuming they took a swing at Matthews specifically, is the Quinn Hughes trade. These two are the most similar in terms of calibre when it comes to potential trade targets. In this trade, the Wild coughed up Marco Rossi, Liam Ohgren, Zeev Buium, and a first-round pick. Quite the haul, but something the Blackhawks can match.

What Is Chicago Willing To Trade?

Since the Blackhawks have a wealth of draft capital, they could trade plenty of it and still have some left over. For example, say they select fourth overall. They can package that pick, another first-rounder next year, and two second-round picks this year. Leftover, they would still own as many as two first-round picks next year, as well as three second-round picks across 2026 and 2027.

A team like Toronto would love this. Their first-round pick is top-five protected to the Bruins. In fact, the highest likelihood is that they land the sixth overall pick at 44%, meaning it’s more likely that they lose their pick. Unless they win the lottery or no one jumps them, they won’t be making a selection until the second round.

The Details

The Blackhawks also own Toronto’s second-round pick. The Maple Leafs, in one trade, could go from a disappointing roster to kick-starting a rebuild. Use the fourth overall pick to select a future star defenseman, get the second-round pick back, and even get another second-round pick next year. That could be enough to get a conversation started for Knies.

Adding Chicago’s first-round pick the year after, and a guy like Ryan Donato or Arvid Söderblom, could be the next step in landing Auston Matthews.

Ultimately, these are both very conservative trades in terms of what the Blackhawks would be giving up. Expect any trade for either of those players to go beyond the return listed above. Certain prospects, including Marek Vanacker and Jack Pridham, would likely be on the table. However, with a fresh front office in Toronto and a team that seems to be on the decline, the Blackhawks could very well end up on top.

What If They Use The Pick?

There’s one player who could get in the way of the Blackhawks trading the third or fourth overall pick, and that’s Caleb Malhotra. Malhotra is a Boston University commit who just wrapped up a phenomenal season in the OHL. A forward with the Brandtford Bulldogs, a team the Blackhawks have many ties with.

Nick Lardis was the first Brandtford prospect, and in keeping tabs on him, they learned about forward Marek Vanacker. They then selected Vanacker in the first round of the 2025 draft. As they’ve monitored Vanacker’s season, they’ve had plenty of opportunity to study Malhotra’s game.

More than likely, the Blackhawks wouldn’t roster Malhotra until the end of the 2026-27 season at the absolute latest. If they select yet another center in the first round, the pressure to find more wingers via trade and free agency increases. It would also complicate the roles of Frank Nazar and Anton Frondell, two players who have spent time at the center position and looked excellent.

The Bottom Line

The draft lottery is a win-win situation for the Blackhawks at the moment. Either they get one of McKenna or Stenberg, or they have a very high draft pick that would be attractive to many teams looking to kickstart a rebuild.

Due to the nature of the lottery, the Blackhawks have a 72.4% chance of landing the third or fourth overall pick. They also have a 27.6% chance of drafting in the top two, the second best of any team. It will be tough to predict the Blackhawks’ offseason without seeing the lottery balls first, but some things are still evident.

Expect Kyle Davidson to be busy. The players want to compete, the fans want to see their team compete, and the front office has all of the assets and cap space they need to make that happen. Whether it’s on day one of free agency, draft night, or beyond, be prepared to see movement in and out of the Windy City.

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