On Kalshi, Mike Vrabel's chance of being Patriots coach as of Week 1 is down to 64 percent

News moves markets. Specifically, prediction markets.

Five days ago, Kalshi had Mike Vrabel as having a 77-percent chance to be the coach of the Patriots as of Week 1. As of this posting, the number has plummeted to 64 percent.

The dip has happened in the wake of the TMZ report that Vrabel and NFL reporter Dianna Russini rented a boat in Tennessee during June 2021, when she was pregnant.

Wednesday's news has not impacted the odds at Polymarket. The chances of Vrabel exiting by December 31 have actually dropped since May 1, from 23 percent to 19 percent. Since Tuesday night, the number has fallen nine points, from 28 percent.

While it's unclear whether this specific development will have any tangible impact on his status, it underscores the reality that there may be more developments. At some point, the next nugget could be the one that forces him to step aside.

Not as a football matter, but as a family matter. With a decision to participate in counseling making him unavailable to the Patriots for the third day of the 2026 NFL draft, the situation could reach a critical mass at any time — one that could make his full-time, all-in employment as an NFL head coach unsustainable.

Our guess (and it's just a guess) is that Vrabel would, if/when it gets to be too much to continue, take a leave of absence for 2026, with the door open to a return in 2027.

The Patriots clearly don't want to lose him. At some point, however, the cascade of reports could make it in everyone's best interests for Vrabel to step aside for a season, to do whatever is necessary to resolve the situation with his family, and to return with a clean slate next year.