On The Horizon: Cubs vs. Diamondbacks series preview

The offense has been solid generally, and that’s without major contributions from Ketel Marte (.682 OPS) and Geraldo Perdomo (.729), though the last of our “Big 3” from last year, Corbin Carroll, has been as effective as ever. Arizona has been getting production from unexpected sources instead. None more unexpected than Ildemaro Vargas. Now in his tenth season, he came into the year with a career OPS+ of just 78. But he ends April leading the majors in average at .378, and the NL in OPS (1.087). Sustainable? Almost certainly not. But it has been a nice story. His current 26-game hitting streak, dating back to last season, is the second longest in franchise history (Paul Goldschmidt reached 30 games). Elsewhere, rookie Jose Fernandez and veteran Nolan Arenado have also performed better than expected.

Before the start of the season, Arizona fans looked at the early schedule and thought, “If we can get through April at .500, that’ll be solid.” This is partly because the D-backs will be getting pitching help off the IL in the coming months, in the shapes of Corbin Burnes, Justin Martinez and A.J. Puk. Though with all three coming off elbow surgery of various kinds, their effectiveness is to be determined. April is done, and at 16-14, the D-backs are above the intended mark. Though it certainly helped that the Mets and Phillies, part of that early schedule, have been nowhere near as good as expected. But it does feel like the current record is illusory, or at least, lucky. If the pitching doesn’t come round, there could be some harsh regression in store for the Diamondbacks, though the offense should prove capable of scoring runs as well.

Fun facts

The Cubs lost the first games of their first four homestands or road trips. They lost at home to the Nationals on Opening Day, 10-4, and to the Pirates on April 10, 2-0. They snapped the streak on April 17 with a 12-4 win over the Mets.
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The Cubs’ next win at home over the Diamondbacks will be their 50th since the rivalry began in 1998. They have lost 45. At Arizona, the Cubs are just 41-55, so they trail overall, 100-90.
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Last year, the Cubs won two of the three meetings at Wrigley Field, for their first series win at home vs. the Snakes since 2021. They had lost three of four in 2022 and 2023, then two of three in 2024. The Cubs’ last three-game sweep of the Diamondbacks was in 2015. This is the 10th series on the North Side since then.

(Courtesy BCB’s JohnW53)

Probable pitching matchups

Friday: Colin Rea, RHP (3-1, 4.61 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 3.89 FIP) vs. Zac Gallen, RHP (1-1, 3.14 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 3.57 FIP)

Saturday: Shōta Imanaga, LHP (2-2, 3.15 ERA, 0.874 WHIP, 2.83 FIP) vs. Ryne Nelson, RHP (1-2, 7.71 ERA, 1.519 WHIP, 5.57 FIP)

Sunday: Matthew Boyd, LHP (1-1, 7.00 ERA, 1.444 WHIP, 1.78 FIP) vs. Merrill Kelly, RHP (1-2, 9.20 ERA, 2.250 WHIP, 8.78 FIP)

Times & TV channels

Friday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network, MLB Network (outside the Cubs and Diamondbacks market territories)

Saturday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Sunday: 1:20 p.m. CT, Marquee Sports Network

Prediction

The Cubs are starting two left-handers in this series. It should be noted, then, that the D-backs are 6-0 vs. LH starters so far this year. Those lefties are: Trevor Rogers, Anthony Kay, Martin Perez, Jesús Luzardo, David Peterson and Tarik Skubal, who they beat 1-0. So I don’t know that there’s any predictive value there, just thought it was interesting.

Where was I? Oh, yes, a series prediction. Two of three.

Up next

The Cubs host the Cincinnati Reds in a four-game series at Wrigley Field beginning Monday evening.