One known and two unknowns that will shape the Phoenix Mercury’s 2026 WNBA season

Alyssa Thomas and Nate Tibbetts. | NBAE via Getty Images

Last offseason, the Phoenix Mercury engineered an instant championship contender.

What are they going to do for an encore? Thus far, not much.

The Mercury have been one the quietest teams during the WNBA offseason. Is that near silence a sign of competence, or is it suggestive of an organization short on options? Here’s a closer analysis of what we do, and don’t, know about the plan in Phoenix. Mercury plans, please share your assessment of the state of things in the comments.

1. Alyssa Thomas will again drive the Mercury

The Mercury’s lone transaction was to refuel The Engine, as Alyssa Thomas is returning to Phoenix, although the terms of her contract have yet to be reported.

Thomas, who turns 34-years-old on Sunday, April 12, has sustained, if not increased, her impact on winning over the course of her career. Despite playing with a pair of bum shoulders, on top of tearing her Achilles in 2021, Thomas and her teams haven’t missed the playoffs since 2016, her second season in the league. An AT-led team is going to crank out regular-season wins, largely due to an elite defensive foundation, a strong transition attack and an ability to generate enough buckets in the halfcourt. Thomas’ teams arguably have overachieved in the playoffs, as exemplified by last season’s Mercury surprise run to the WNBA Finals.

Thomas’ return, in short, almost guarantees a significant measure of success. But, can AT take a team to the ultimate success?

For as much overachievement as Thomas facilitates, her teams often reach a hard ceiling. They go far, but never far enough. Her limitations have a cascading effect at the highest: Her lack of shooting becomes glaring against locked in halfcourt defenses, with that lack of shooting, in turn, making it difficult to play a traditional center alongside her, which then weakens her team’s rim protection.

Considering that absence of offseason buzz around Phoenix and their ambitions, maybe the organization is happy to ride things out with AT, prioritizing winning but not going all out to chase a championship. That, however, would seem bit odd, as Thomas herself likely views a ring as the main, or even only, motivation at this stage of her career.

What do you think about AT’s return to Phoenix? Are you confident she can continue to carry a team to success? Are you concerned that age and injury could start to catch up with her?

2. Who is joining AT for the ride in PHX?

If a title is the top priority in Phoenix, the Mercury need supporting stars who can mitigate Thomas’ weaknesses.

Since asking Satou Sabally to reprise that role is no longer an option after she chose to join the New York Liberty, keeping Kahleah Copper is crucial. She’s been at big-game riser, with the combination of her shooting and speed complementing Thomas’ skills.

The free agency well of players capable of high-level star impact, however, is otherwise looking dry.

Possibly, Phoenix is positioning themselves to take advantage of other teams’ profligacy. A number of other organizations have extinguished their cap space by handing out contracts that approach $1 million dollars per year in annual value to sub-All-Star players, thus leaving them able to only offer minimums to players as they try to fill out their rosters. Phoenix is well positioned to jump in and present more appealing contracts to solid role players or lower-level stars.

Last season, Phoenix thrived, even as their rosters primarily featured previously overlooked or inexperienced role players. Maybe signing multiple role or star-adjacent players who have demonstrated stronger play—especially 3-and-D types who are amplified by Thomas—is the plan?

Some interesting, still-available free agents who could fit this model include Kayla McBride, Kayla Thornton, Temi Fagbénlé and DiJonai Carrington. If Emma Meesseman desires to play in the W in 2026, she would make for a fascinating star-caliber frontcourt partner for Thomas.

Do you think Copper will eventually be back in Phoenix? If not, who should the Mercury turn to among the remaining free agents? Are you worried by the team’s lack of activity, or do you believe everything is going to work out?

3. Can the Mercury finally hit on a draft pick?

Since drafting Brittney Griner No. 1 overall in 2013, the Mercury’s draft history has been pretty bleak.

In 2019, they had a second-round win with Sophie Cunningham, the No. 13 overall pick. Their only other moderate win came in 2018, when they made a draft night trade for Brianna Turner. Retrospectively, drafting Courtney Williams at No. 8 overall in 2016 and Alanna Smith, also at No. 8 overall, in 2019 were great picks, although Phoenix benefitted from neither.

The organization’s championship-or-bust mentality during the Diana Taurasi era explains the draft drought. Picks were sacrificed in the chase of another title, exemplified by the fact that Phoenix has not picked in the first round since 2020; over the last five drafts, all their picks have been no higher than the third round, with no selection at all last year.

This year, the Mercury actually own their second-round selection, as well as their third-round pick. It’s unlikely that either the No. 27 overall or No. 42 overall pick is ready to be Day 1 difference-maker in the WNBA. But, having a pair of picks at least gives Phoenix a chance to begin stocking their roster with young players who, ideally, can develop into contributors. (Or, if the Mercury’s history is any indication, develop into players who have value in future trades for stars, as happened with Cunningham).

In his final mock draft, Eric Nemchock has the Mercury taking Richmond’s Maggie Doogan, a tall shooter who could cash in the open 3s created by Thomas, at No. 27. If Phoenix is concerned about Doogan’s athletic limitations, there are several prospects with intriguing athletic profiles on Eric’s board in the No. 27 range, such as Ole Miss’ Latasha Lattimore, Notre Dame’s Cass Prosper or Baylor’s Darianna Littlepage-Buggs. At No. 42, Eric had Phoenix go with a guard in North Carolina’s Indya Nivar.

What prospect do you hope drops to Phoenix? Is their a particular archetype—shooter, athlete or guard—that you think the Mercury should prioritize? Would you rather see the team go with a developmental project or a player more likely to contribute immediately?