One Stat To Tell the Story of Each Blue Jays Hitter’s Season

TL;DR

The Toronto Blue Jays are facing a disappointing season, with key hitters like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. struggling significantly. Each player's performance is analyzed through a specific statistic that highlights their challenges and potential for improvement.

Key points

Toronto Blue Jays facing a disappointing season
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a 9.0% barrel rate
Tyler Heineman's chase rate is 44.9%
Daulton Varsho's sprint speed is down to 27.1 feet per second
Andres Gimenez is on pace for a career-high 5 home runs

Toronto Blue Jays

May 12, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays center fielder Daulton Varsho (5) catches a fly ball for an out against the Tampa Bay Rays during the tenth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images | Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images We’re a little more than a quarter of the way into what’s shaping up to be a profoundly disappointing season for the Blue Jays. I want to dig a bit into each of the guys who’s on the roster and has received significant playing time this year to figure out what’s going on and whether we might hope for improvement the rest of the way. To keep things simple, as I’ve done the last couple of years I’m going to pick one number that I think represents the arc of each player’s season to date. Today, the hitters.

**Tyler Heineman:** 44.9% chase rate. Heineman is always an aggressive hitters, swinging about 52% of the time for his career. That makes sense, as a pretty good knack for contact is his only real offensive asset. This season, though, he’s getting over-aggressive out of the zone without swinging more inside it, and it’s cratered his production.
**Brandon Valenzuela:** 3 Framing Runs Above Average. The Jays acquired Valenzuela to be their long term backup catcher because they’re believers in his glove. He’s impressed at the plate so far as well, but that will likely regress. The defense is shaping up to be everything promised, though, with top tier framing grades, an easy plus arm, and good blocking to boot.
**Vladimir Guerrero jr:** 9.0% barrel rate. After the pitching staff, Vlad might be the biggest disappointment so far. The reason is that he’s just not squaring it up. His barrel rate is his worst since 2020, hindered by a lower launch angle and fewer hard hit balls. His bat speed looks normal, and his max exit velocity is in line, so he seems healthy, but he’ll need to make an adjustment soon if they have any hope of crawling out of their current hole.

Q&A

What is Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s barrel rate this season?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has a barrel rate of 9.0%, which is his worst since 2020.

How has Tyler Heineman's chase rate affected his performance?

Tyler Heineman has a chase rate of 44.9%, indicating he is swinging aggressively at pitches outside the strike zone, negatively impacting his production.

What is Daulton Varsho's sprint speed compared to previous seasons?

Daulton Varsho's sprint speed has decreased to 27.1 feet per second, dropping from the 77th to the 49th percentile.

Which Blue Jays player is on pace for a career-high in home runs?

Andres Gimenez is on pace to set a career high with 5 home runs this season.