Opinion: Why Liam Lawson is Red Bull’s Ultimate Insurance Policy if Max Verstappen Quits

If you listen closely, there is a ticking clock hanging over Red Bull Racing.

Max Verstappen is currently bound to Red Bull by a lucrative contract that stretches to 2028. But the four-time world champion has made it abundantly clear that he isn’t interested in sticking around just to add to his already impressive collection of trophies.

He hates the sprint weekends, he is exhausted by the bloated 24-race calendar, and he has openly criticised the 2026 regulation changes.

And as the 2026 season unfolds, that ticking clock is getting louder. With Verstappen rumored to be mulling over early retirement or a sabbatical, Red Bull is facing the very real possibility of losing their generational superstar.

But the most ruthless team in motorsport never operates without an insurance policy, and all signs point to one man waiting in the wings to take over: Liam Lawson**.**

The Perfect Storm for a Verstappen Exit

The sweeping new engine regulations, which mandate a 50-50 split between internal combustion and electrical power, have completely ruined Red Bull’s dominance. Verstappen has publicly labeled his 2026 challenger “undriveable” and the regulations “anti-driving,” with him not being so secret over his distaste of where the championship has gone.

Worse yet, he is currently sitting 9th in the standings after a challenging start to the year, lightyears behind the Mercedes of Kimi Antonelli and George Russell.

Add to this the impending departure of Gianpiero Lambiase, Max’s beloved, long-time race engineer who is heading to McLaren, and the writing could well be on the wall.

Verstappen famously stated in 2021 that he would quit if Lambiase ever left his side. A d while his father, Jos, has argued against this, recent whispers indicate Verstappen’s contract contains an exit clause: if he isn’t sitting in the top two of the drivers’ championship by the summer break, he can terminate with Milton Keynes.

If the team’s current performance doesn’t improve, Max has both the motive and the legal loophole to hang up his F1 helmet and go race GT cars – or whatever the hell he wants to – full-time.

The Return of Liam Lawson

If Max pulls the ripcord, who takes the keys to the flagship Red Bull? According to recent reports, Red Bull shareholders are heavily pressuring team management to traditionally promote from within rather than buying out a rival driver.

Enter Liam Lawson.

Lawson’s relationship with Red Bull has been an absolute rollercoaster. He was given the golden ticket at the start of 2025 to partner Verstappen, only to suffer a ruthless and highly public demotion back to Racing Bulls after just two challenging race weekends.

But Formula 1 is a sport of redemption. Back at Racing Bulls for the 2026 season, Lawson has undergone a reset.

He is currently serving as the lead driver alongside rookie Arvid Lindblad, dragging the sister car into the points. His stock within the Red Bull camp is rapidly rising once again. The shareholders know he has the raw speed, and more importantly, he has the thick skin required to survive the team.

The Post-Max Era at Red Bull

Let’s face it, replacing a driver like Verstappen is impossible.

But bringing in a high-priced outsider would cost a fortune and potentially add more issues to the struggling team as they fight to rebuild the car around the new star of the energy drink team.

Promoting Lawson is the most logical move, therefore. It validates their junior driver program and gives a hardened, highly motivated young driver the chance of a lifetime.

Max Verstappen has nothing left to prove.

He doesn’t care about breaking Lewis Hamilton‘s record of seven world titles, and he has openly questioned whether the F1 circus is “worth it” anymore.

If the Red Bull garage doesn’t start giving him a car that makes him smile, don’t be surprised to see him hand his steering wheel to the Kiwi.