Opta predicts Manchester United has a 42.8% chance of beating Liverpool, while Liverpool's chances stand at 30.5%. A draw is also likely at 26.7%, highlighting the tight nature of this rivalry.
Key points
Opta predicts Manchester United has a 42.8% chance of winning.
Liverpool's chances of victory are at 30.5%.
A draw is statistically likely at 26.7%.
Manchester United holds a three-point lead in the league.
United's recent record against Liverpool shows three wins in 19 meetings.
LiverpoolManchester United
Opta reveal the chances of Liverpool beating Manchester United
Opta predictions highlight fine margins in Old Trafford showdown
When Manchester United and Liverpool collide with top-five stakes on the line, the numbers rarely lie. According to Opta, this encounter leans marginally towards the home side, yet remains delicately poised. The supercomputer assigns United a 42.8 per cent probability of victory, with Liverpool trailing at 30.5 per cent. A draw, however, sits at a notable 26.7 per cent, making it statistically the most likely stalemate of the weekend.
Those figures underline just how tight this fixture has become in recent years. While United hold a slender three-point advantage in third place, their recent record against Liverpool paints a different picture. The Red Devils have managed only three wins in their last 19 league meetings with their fiercest rivals, drawing nine and losing seven. That imbalance adds intrigue to what is already one of the Premier League’s most scrutinised contests.
Form guide reveals contrasting trajectories for both sides
Momentum often dictates outcomes in fixtures of this magnitude, and here the narrative splits. Since Michael Carrick took charge earlier this season, United have accumulated 29 points, more than any other side in the division over that stretch. Their latest victory against Brentford further reinforced their upward curve, suggesting a side growing in confidence and tactical clarity.
Q&A
What are the chances of Manchester United winning against Liverpool?
Opta gives Manchester United a 42.8% chance of winning against Liverpool.
What is Liverpool's probability of winning against Manchester United?
Liverpool has a 30.5% chance of winning according to Opta's predictions.
What is the likelihood of a draw in the Manchester United vs Liverpool match?
The probability of a draw is 26.7%, making it the most likely outcome.
How have Manchester United and Liverpool performed in their recent encounters?
In their last 19 league meetings, Manchester United has won only three times, with nine draws and seven losses.
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Liverpool, under Arne Slot, arrive in solid but less convincing form. Three consecutive wins signal improvement, yet their struggles against elite opposition remain a concern. They have secured just one victory in their last 12 matches against teams starting the day in the top three, alongside seven draws and four defeats. That statistic alone frames the scale of the challenge awaiting them at Old Trafford.
Interestingly, Liverpool’s away record in this fixture offers encouragement. They have won three of their last five league visits to United, matching the total from their previous 18 trips combined. It is a reminder that historical trends can shift quickly when belief and execution align.
Key absences and attacking threats could swing outcome
One of the defining variables in this clash centres on team news, particularly Liverpool’s attacking options. Mohamed Salah could miss out through injury, potentially ruling him out of what would have been his final opportunity to face United in the league. His absence would be significant. Salah has scored seven away goals against United, more than any player in Premier League history.
Without him, Liverpool may need to reconfigure their forward line, placing greater emphasis on collective movement rather than individual brilliance. For United, this could simplify defensive planning, allowing them to compress space and dictate tempo.
At the other end, United’s attacking unit has shown signs of cohesion in recent weeks. Their ability to convert possession into clear chances has improved, a factor reflected in their rising points tally. If they can maintain that efficiency, the Opta projections may well prove accurate.
Historical context adds weight to latest Premier League meeting
Fixtures between these two clubs rarely exist in isolation. Each meeting carries echoes of past battles, title races, and defining moments. Yet this encounter feels particularly consequential given the current league landscape. Both sides are not only chasing Champions League qualification but also attempting to assert themselves as genuine contenders in a competitive season.
The original source material highlights the delicate balance succinctly: “This is deemed the most likely draw of the weekend at 26.7%.” That single line captures the essence of the contest. Neither side enters as overwhelming favourites, and both possess strengths capable of tipping the scales.
From a tactical standpoint, expect a measured opening phase, with both teams wary of conceding early. United may look to control possession and exploit transitions, while Liverpool will aim to press aggressively and disrupt rhythm. The midfield battle, as ever, could prove decisive.
Ultimately, Opta’s predictions frame this as a game of marginal gains. Whether it is a moment of quality, a defensive lapse, or a tactical adjustment, the outcome is likely to hinge on fine details. For supporters and analysts alike, that uncertainty is precisely what makes Liverpool vs Man Utd one of football’s most compelling spectacles.
