Orioles-Astros series preview: The final series before things get tougher

Game 1: Tuesday, 6:35

• HOU starter: Kai-Wei Teng – 2.16 ERA, 0.900 WHIP, 4.63 FIP in 16.2 innings
• BAL starter: Shane Baz – 5.08 ERA, 1.553 WHIP, 3.69 FIP in 28.1 innings Teng has yet to start a game this season and his high pitch count is 39. It does not look like an opener gambit, but rather one of desperation for lack of other options available. If Teng can give them 60 pitches, they’ll probably be happy with that. He’s not left-handed, nor are any of the Astros starters who are pitching in this series. The 27-year-old from Taiwan was traded from San Francisco over to Houston this offseason. The results have been there out of the bullpen so far. I’m curious to see how that translates multiple times through the order. Baz needs to have a great start as an Oriole. His best so far is one run allowed over 5.2 innings, a game which the Orioles still managed to use. The other four have not been good. This is more for the sake of the 2026 Orioles season than it is about winning the trade/extension, although obviously it would be nice for the O’s if those things happen as well. We have just not yet seen things out of him to validate Mike Elias’s belief in Baz. The O’s could probably help Baz by putting a better defensive alignment behind him – that .360 BABIP luck is just crazy bad.

Game 2: Wednesday, 6:35

• HOU starter: Peter Lambert – 3.27 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 1.85 FIP in 11 innings
• BAL starter: Chris Bassitt – 6.75 ERA, 2.063 WHIP, 6.27 FIP in 21.1 innings Lambert, 29, is a player I have never thought about in my life before sitting down to write this series preview. He was drafted by the Rockies and pitched part of four seasons with them through 2024. He spent last year in Japan and returned to the US this year. Astros injuries have pressed him into service – he’s started two games and they’ve gone well for him so far. If you are wired like me, your first reaction to finding out the Orioles are going to face a relatively anonymous starting pitcher is to think it will go badly for them. Take heart: It doesn’t always go as bad as you remember. Or take despair: Sometimes it does go badly. You might also despair because Bassitt is on the mound. He also needs to have a great start as an Oriole! His bad starts have been worse than Baz’s bad starts, by far; Bassitt only compares favorably if you’re comparing him against Charlie Morton last year. It is the case that Bassitt is like four runs better in ERA than Morton was before he got bounced from the rotation. Still, Bassitt is not pitching well enough to help the Orioles have a good chance to win games he starts. The only Bassitt win this year saw him allow five runs in 5.1 innings and he was lucky to be bailed out by the offense. Back in spring training, we were getting stories about how Bassitt was motivated since he came so close to winning the World Series last year. The extra motivation isn’t solving whatever else is going on here. Maybe some day the Orioles will get a veteran clubhouse presence who is both a good teammate and a good player.

Game 3: Thursday, 12:05

• HOU starter: Lance McCullers Jr. – 6.75 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 5.06 FIP in 25.1 innings
• BAL starter: Brandon Young – 2.53 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 3.88 FIP in 10.2 innings We are far removed from McCullers having been a good MLB pitcher. He last started more than 20 games in 2021, missed 2023 and 2024 entirely due to injury issues, and was terrible in 16 games last year. Unfortunately for Houston, he’s picking up where he left off from last year, with all kinds of problems plaguing his game. As you and I both know, this is no guarantee that Orioles hitters will capitalize on this struggling pitcher. It would sure be nice to see them hit several home runs against a guy who’s already been homer-prone this year. Young made two starts against the Astros during his rookie season a year ago, experiencing the highest of highs and some pretty low lows as well. The first game, he took a perfect through to two outs in the eighth inning, ultimately pitching eight shutout innings on the road in Houston. Six days later, back home in Baltimore, the Astros blasted him for seven runs in a 5.1 inning outing. I had no interest in seeing Young start MLB games this season; he’s surprised me so far. It’s unlikely he will continue in the mid-2s for ERA but even if he floats up with an ERA closer to that 3.88 FIP, that is potential “save the season” stuff. You know, if enough else goes right with the Orioles for the performance of their #5 starter to make much of a difference. \\ Returning to the thought from before the matchups, a lot of Yankees games are looming after this series. It’s probably going to be tough for fans to believe that the Orioles can play well against the Yankees if they struggle against another last-place team. Houston is scraping the bottom of the barrel for a patchwork pitching staff. The Orioles offense needs to make something happen here, especially since they aren’t facing any lefty starters. How do you think this series is going to go? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.