Orioles star Gunnar Henderson among best Monday HR player props from proven MLB expert

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With 10 games on the diamond for Monday, April 13, sports fans interested in MLB betting have plenty of options when making their wagers. That includes prop betting, particular on home run picks. Before locking in your wagers, you should see what SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca has highlighted for his best home run picks for Monday's slate.

Magliocca, also known as "Amags" is a hugely profitable MLB capper who uses his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Over the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays. For more expert picks and MLB predictions, check out the SportsLine Projection Model.

Best home run picks for Monday, April 13

• Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (+454)
• Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+361)

Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (+454)

Henderson has tallied 28 total bases in 41 at bats during the month of April and his five home runs are a huge piece of that. He came into Sunday's game tied for the MLB lead in home runs and he's getting some of the best hitting weather in Baltimore on Monday's slate of games. Humidity kicks up as the night moves on and temperatures in the mid 70s with winds pushing out, each proving to help fly balls travel further. Diamondbacks pitcher Ryne Nelson leans on the fastball a ton, throwing it around 60% of the time to lefties, and he's allowed three home runs to left-handed batters on that pitch already this season. Nelson allowed four home runs to lefties on the fastball all of last year so there has been some trouble with home runs already, thanks to a higher than usual fly ball rate. That may normalize over time but if it continues Monday, Nelson will be in trouble in these conditions. Henderson has seen his barrel rate jump to a career-high 14% to begin the year, coming off a down season in 2025, and he's feasted on right-handed fastballs. Four of his five homers have come against that pitch and registered exit velocities at 103 mph and 105 mph. Henderson is also pulling the ball in the air at a significantly higher rate than ever before, pointing towards a clear approach change that benefits home runs.

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Nick Kurtz, Athletics (+361)

As much as I like Nathan Eovaldi, he's struggled with home runs more than usual thus far with three allowed to lefties after just six surrendered all of last year. He's facing Athletics star Nick Kurtz, who hit 22 home runs in just over 200 at-bats in Sacramento during 2025 as it was one of the best hitters parks in MLB, especially for lefties. The A's have played just three games at home this season, so getting back to California and the warm weather after spending the last week in New York should be good news for Kurtz on the home run front. This is another guy that looks to be making a concerted effort to pull the ball more in the air, bumping his rate by nearly 10% to begin the season. Kurtz is in the 99th percentile for hard hit rate and getting the ball in the air to the pull side should help yield even more power, regardless of if he's putting the ball in the air less overall. Kurtz has seen his barrel rate dip during some early season struggles but he looks to be coming around after the road trip, where he registered seven hard hit balls with five being over 100 mph exit velocity. He didn't have a home run until Sunday, so now that he's got that monkey off his back I like him to go deep again Monday at some point!

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