Outrunning JaMarcus Russell: The path to success for Fernando Mendoza
TL;DR
Fernando Mendoza is projected to be a top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, following in the footsteps of 21 quarterbacks since Peyton Manning. An analysis of their career approximate value (AV) highlights what it takes for Mendoza to succeed as a No. 1 draft pick.
Key points
- Fernando Mendoza projected as top pick in 2026 NFL Draft
- 21 quarterbacks drafted No. 1 since Peyton Manning
- Approximate value (AV) measures player performance
- Analysis includes data from Pro Football Reference
- Success factors for Mendoza as a No. 1 pick
Since Peyton Manning was drafted No. 1 overall in the 1998 NFL Draft, 21 quarterbacks have been taken with the top pick. Indianaβs Fernando Mendoza is widely projected to join that group when the Las Vegas Raiders kick off the 2026 NFL Draft on April 23.
What will it take for Mendoza to be a successful No. 1 NFL draft pick?
USA TODAY analyzed the career approximate value (AV) of those 21 quarterbacks, plus Manning, using data from Pro Football Reference. Approximate value is a rough gauge of a playerβs performance over a given time span, making it a reasonable way to estimate the success of recent quarterbacks picked No. 1 in the draft.
β
Out of the 22 quarterbacks, Manning far and away tops the list with a career AV of 271. Heβs joined near the top by still-active Matthew Stafford (196) and his brother Eli Manning (169).
Those are the only three in the group to have won a Super Bowl (three others β Cameron Newton, Jared Goff, and Joe Burrow β made the Super Bowl, but didnβt win).
To round out the top five, Carson Palmer is fourth with a career AV of 141, while Newton sits just behind him at 140.
To reach the average of these quarterbacks, Mendoza will need to hit a career AV of 88.2. That would put him just below still-active Baker Mayfield (94 AV) and the duo of Andrew Luck and Kyler Murray (both at 80). Non-top draft pick quarterbacks with an AV of 88 include Super Bowl winner Jalen Hurts, former Raider Daryle Lamonica and longtime Seattle Seahawk Jim Zorn.
Of course, itβs hard to consider the career potential of Mendoza without looking at the last quarterback the Raiders drafted No. 1 overall β JaMarcus Russell in 2007. Russell occupies the bottom of this list with the career AV of 6 that he scored over three seasons and 25 starts.
Itβs difficult to quantify just how poor that AV is β out of the 141 quarterbacks to have started 25 or more games since 1998, Russell is 141st when it comes to career AV. That places him right behind journeyman Mike Glennon and 2021 draft pick Zach Wilson.
Ultimately, thatβs the standard Mendoza will be measured against β not just avoiding Russellβs fate, but proving worthy of one of the most scrutinized picks in all of sports.
- Las Vegas Raiders β Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
- New York Jets β David Bailey, OLB/DE, Texas Tech
- Arizona Cardinals β Arvell Reese, LB/DE, Ohio State
- Tennessee Titans β Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
- New York Giants β Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
- Cleveland Browns β Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
- Washington Commanders β Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
- New Orleans Saints β Makai Lemon, WR, USC
- Kansas City Chiefs β Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
- Cincinnati Bengals β Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
- Miami Dolphins β Francis Mauigoa, OT/G, Miami (Fla.)
- Dallas Cowboys β Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami (Fla.)
- Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta Falcons) β Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
- Baltimore Ravens β Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers β Keldric Faulk, DE, Auburn
- New York Jets (from Indianapolis Colts) β Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana
- Detroit Lions β Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
- Minnesota Vikings β Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
- Carolina Panthers β Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
- Dallas Cowboys (from Green Bay Packers) β Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson
- Pittsburgh Steelers β Olaivavega Ioane, G, Penn State
- Los Angeles Chargers β Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami (Fla.)
- Philadelphia Eagles β Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State
- Cleveland Browns (from Jacksonville Jaguars) β Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
- Chicago Bears β T.J. Parker, DE, Clemson
- Buffalo Bills β Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
- San Francisco 49ers β KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
- Houston Texans β Keylan Rutledge, G, Georgia Tech
- Kansas City Chiefs (from Rams) β Malachi Lawrence, DE, UCF
- Miami Dolphins (from Denver Broncos) β Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State
- New England Patriots β Zion Young, DE/OLB, Missouri
- Seattle Seahawks β Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee
1 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Las Vegas Raiders β Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
1 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Las Vegas Raiders β Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
2 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- New York Jets β David Bailey, OLB/DE, Texas Tech
3 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Arizona Cardinals β Arvell Reese, LB/DE, Ohio State
4 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Tennessee Titans β Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
5 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- New York Giants β Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
6 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Cleveland Browns β Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
7 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Washington Commanders β Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
8 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- New Orleans Saints β Makai Lemon, WR, USC
9 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Kansas City Chiefs β Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
10 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Cincinnati Bengals β Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
11 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Miami Dolphins β Francis Mauigoa, OT/G, Miami (Fla.)
12 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Dallas Cowboys β Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami (Fla.)
13 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta Falcons) β Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia
14 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Baltimore Ravens β Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
15 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers β Keldric Faulk, DE, Auburn
16 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- New York Jets (from Indianapolis Colts) β Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana
17 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Detroit Lions β Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
18 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Minnesota Vikings β Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
19 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Carolina Panthers β Spencer Fano, OT, Utah
20 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Dallas Cowboys (from Green Bay Packers) β Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson
21 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Pittsburgh Steelers β Olaivavega Ioane, G, Penn State
22 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Los Angeles Chargers β Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami (Fla.)
23 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Philadelphia Eagles β Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State
24 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Cleveland Browns (from Jacksonville Jaguars) β Blake Miller, OT, Clemson
25 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Chicago Bears β T.J. Parker, DE, Clemson
26 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Buffalo Bills β Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
27 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- San Francisco 49ers β KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
28 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Houston Texans β Keylan Rutledge, G, Georgia Tech
29 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Kansas City Chiefs (from Rams) β Malachi Lawrence, DE, UCF
30 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Miami Dolphins (from Denver Broncos) β Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State
31 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- New England Patriots β Zion Young, DE/OLB, Missouri
32 / 32
NFL mock draft: Big-name prospect drops in latest first-round projection
- Seattle Seahawks β Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ranking QBs taken No. 1 in the NFL draft by statistical analysis
Q&A
What is the significance of the 2026 NFL Draft for Fernando Mendoza?
The 2026 NFL Draft is significant for Fernando Mendoza as he is projected to be a top pick, potentially following the legacy of past No. 1 quarterbacks.
How many quarterbacks have been drafted No. 1 overall since Peyton Manning?
Since Peyton Manning was drafted No. 1 overall in 1998, 21 quarterbacks have been selected with the top pick.
What does approximate value (AV) indicate for NFL quarterbacks?
Approximate value (AV) serves as a rough gauge of a player's performance over time, helping to estimate the success of quarterbacks drafted No. 1.
What factors contribute to a quarterback's success as a No. 1 draft pick?
A quarterback's success as a No. 1 draft pick can be influenced by their performance metrics, including approximate value, and their ability to adapt to the NFL.
