Pack9 enters final weekend of regular season with postseason hopes in limbo

Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Florida State, Wake Forest, Virginia, Miami, and Boston College are all in regardless of what happens from here. Clemson, California, Pitt, and Duke would need to win the ACC Tournament to make a Regional. NC State and Virginia Tech are the two true bubble teams.

Notre Dame has won nine straight and finishes at Pitt. A sweep of the Panthers likely still wouldn’t be enough as even if Pitt stayed a Quad 1 opponent, the Irish would be just 4-12 in Quad 1 games with an RPI that still wasn’t pretty, even if DSR likes them. Stanford (series at Cal) is in the same boat as Notre Dame, but without the massive winning streak (in part due to being swept by the Irish). Louisville is an even worse version of that with a 2-7 record since sweeping Clemson; they finish with Virginia.

Virginia Tech wraps up the regular season with a home series against Clemson. All the metrics feel good about the Hokies, plus they have a solid strength of schedule both in and out of conference to help offset the poor overall record. Get to .500 in ACC play and VT should be in. Lose the series to the Tigers and they’ll need some wins in the ACC Tournament to feel good about things.

For NC State, it’s easy: win the series against UNC and they’re in easily as an at-large regardless of what happens at the ACC Tournament. Lose the series to the Tar Heels and they’ll need to make some noise in Charlotte.

American

Perhaps no league did the Wolfpack more of a solid this past weekend than the American, where all three of at-large candidate teams (UTSA, ECU, UAB) lost. NC State should really send a “thank you” card to Rice, who swept UAB two weeks ago and then won a series at East Carolina last week.

The Pirates have the best SOS among American members, but they finish at FAU in a series they really need to sweep to help a falling RPI, then need to make some noise at the conference tournament. UTSA and UAB play each other to finish the year in Arlington. A UTSA series win likely puts the Roadrunners in pretty good shape, while UAB would need a series sweep to move back up high enough to feel good, although their SOS is helping them.

This just feels like a one-bid league.

Big 12

This league feels pretty clearly settled at this point. BYU is about the only team that could still make things interesting if they went and swept Kansas to finish out the regular season, but the metrics don’t really love the Cougars.

Big South

High Point finishes the regular season at UNC Asheville, which will drag their RPI down even with a series sweep. The Panthers should be an at-large team regardless, and hopefully the selection committee recognizes that. I mean, HPU has a weekend series win at Florida, which is looking like a Top 8 national seed, plus a midweek victory over Wake Forest, another potential Regional host. The Panthers shouldn’t get dinged because their outside-of-their-control conference SOS looks like NC State’s within-their-control non-conference SOS.

Big Ten

Four teams are a lock, but there are some interesting scenarios after that. Michigan and Ohio State finish off the regular season against each other in Ann Arbor. The Buckeyes started the season 6-12 (1-5 in conference) but have been playing really well since under former Campbell head coach Justin Haire. The metrics don’t like them as much, but a road series win against their rival would put them at 17-13 in the Big Ten and they’d be 22-10 since that rough start. Momentum counts for something.

Michigan feels like they should be in as long as they don’t fall on their faces down the stretch, but they’re still on the bubble in my view. Purdue, under another former Campbell head coach (Greg Goff), also are on the right side of the bubble and almost a lock. The Boilermakers are on a 7-game winning streak and finish up with Iowa. A series win puts them with a 20-10 conference mark, and there’s no way that’s getting left out. A series loss might drop the RPI enough that if any conference tourney bid stealing happens, it could come at their expense.

Big West

UCSB is in no matter what as the Gauchos are a solid team with wins over UCLA, USC, Southern Miss, and Oregon. Nobody else from this league is making a Regional without winning the conference tourney.

Coastal

Like High Point in the Big South, Campbell is a team worthy of an at-large Regional bid even without winning their conference tournament. Unlike High Point, Campbell doesn’t have a big time series win to hang their hat on, nor the metrics love to support them. The Camels do have individual wins over Coastal Carolina and bubble teams NC State, High Point, and East Carolina, but that’s likely not going to be enough. It didn’t help Campbell that it’s been a weaker year for the conference, and the league scheduling quirkiness ended up with them not playing Northeastern.

Conference USA

Here’s another league that NC State fans will want to keep a close eye on. Jacksonville State (with Wolfpack transfer pitcher Eli Pillsbury) and Liberty (with Wolfpack transfer pitcher Jaxon Lucas) are locks, but Missouri State and Louisiana Tech are both on the bubble, with Dallas Baptist right there, too. The Bears and Bulldogs should get in if they don’t fall on their respective faces this weekend. DBU finishes up with a home tilt against Jax State. The metrics really don’t love the Patriots, but a sweep would put them at 20-10 in the conference, which would be hard to ignore. If CUSA goes from a 2-team league to a 5-team league, that could spell disaster for NC State.

SEC

Kentucky is the only real bubble team here, but we have to factor in SEC bias. Let’s cover that with the Wildcats first. Kentucky opened SEC play with a series sweep of Alabama, part of an 18-2 start to the year, but hasn’t won a single series since. That’s eight straight SEC series losses, but none of them being sweeps which is how they still maintain a 12-15 league mark right now. Historically, a 13-win SEC team with an RPI in the 30’s is a lock, and with a season closing series against Arkansas, that RPI is going to be there. I would say that a team that only wins 2 of their 10 conference series shouldn’t be let into a Regional no matter what their metrics say, but this is an SEC team we’re talking about. We’ll learn a lot about the selection committee with what they do with Kentucky.

Then there’s Vanderbilt, always a darling of the selection committees. The Commodores finish up with a home series against South Carolina, which won’t help the metrics at all but a sweep would put Vandy at 14-16 in SEC play, which is typically enough to put an SEC team in the field.

What’s going to happen here? It’s worth keeping an eye on.

Southern

Mercer hadn’t won a Quad 1 game all year until Tuesday night when they took down Georgia Tech on the road, which in turn bumped their RPI (at least momentarily) up to 34th. They Bears are one of the hottest teams in the country right now, having won 15 of their last 16 games. With a series at ETSU to finish out the regular season, a series win should put them in as an at-large.

Western is on the outside looking in, but the Catamounts are having their best season since 2014. It’d be great to see them back in a Regional, but it’s going to take a SoCon Tournament title to do it.

Sun Belt

Southern Miss and Coastal are battling to host a Regional, but it’s Louisiana, Texas State, South Alabama, and Troy where the intrigue lies. Troy’s overall mark is going to put them in a situation where they need to sweep ULM to finish the regular season and then make a run in the conference tourney. A series win for South Alabama against Arkansas State could put the Jaguars in better bubble position, but a sweep would likely be necessary.

Texas State is best positioned in the RPI of those four, but they finish with a home series against Marshall and will need a sweep as Sun Belt team with a .500 league mark isn’t going to earn an at-large bid. The Ragin’ Cajuns, meanwhile, have been hot over the last month, with four series wins including over Southern Miss. They finish with a home series against Coastal Carolina and a series win there will propel Louisiana into a Regional.

It’s also worth noting that Appalachian State is going to post their third winning conference mark in the last four years under Kermit Smith. The Mountaineers are actually third in the Sun Belt standings right now, but the metrics are weighing them down like a sack of rocks. As with WCU, it’s nice to see App playing some solid ball up on the mountain.

The Sun Belt feels like a 3-bid league, but it’s worth watching to see if a 4th team from the league snags a bid.

West Coast

Gonzaga started the year 4-11 and has been on a tear since. Like High Point and Campbell, I’d put them in no matter what. Unfortunately, their final regular season series is a home tilt with Seattle, which is going to really hurt the metrics. I’d still like to see the Bulldogs in the field. It’ll be interesting to see what happens if Gonzaga does sweep Seattle but falls in the WCC Tournament finals.

Western Athletic

I’m of the opinion that Cal Baptist should be in regardless, but the metrics are going to keep them down in the eyes of the selection committee, as will only playing one Quad 1 game all year. I want to see the Lancers in the postseason, though. Give them a shot over Vandy or Kentucky.

I also think Tarleton State has a case, with a road win over Texas and a midweek series sweep of Baylor. They also played Texas A&M, Arkansas, and TCU. The metrics just aren’t kind enough, though, but a road series sweep at Sacramento State could make things interesting.

Outlook for NC State

35 teams locked in plus 16 one-bid leagues accounts for 51 of the 64 Regional bids. There are 13 conferences mentioned above that could have multiple teams. NC State needs to hope that the conference champions for those leagues are either among the 35 locked-in teams (representing 7 conferences), or the current league leader for the other 6 conferences to avoid “bid stealing”.

NC State should root for Cal Baptist to win the WAC, Gonzaga to win the WCC, Mercer to win the SoCon, Campbell to win the Coastal, High Point to win the Big South, UC Santa Barbara to win the Big West, and UTSA to win the American. That would be 7 of the remaining 13 spots. Outside of those leagues, root for one of the teams highlighted in green to win their respective league tournament titles.

Reading above, there are 18 bubble teams (including NC State) competing for 6 at-large spots. The Wolfpack would do well to take care of business against UNC and not leave their Regional chances to the whims of a selection committee.