Packers Draft: Trey Smack’s numbers show he’s a good kicker prospect

TALLAHASSEE, FL - NOVEMBER 30:Florida Gators place kicker Trey Smack (29) jogs onto the field before a college football game between the Florida Gators and the Florida State Seminoles on November 30th, 2024 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, FL. (Photo by Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Back in April of 2023, I wrote an article explaining how poorly Anders Carlson compared to other recently drafted kicking prospects. Since the drafting of Florida kicker Trey Smack, I’ve been asked by Green Bay Packers fans to update the numbers and explain where Smack lies on the Carlson to Good spectrum.

Beyond physical skills — and by all means, it sure sounds like scouts consider Smack’s leg to be one of the strongest in recent memory — the way I’d evaluate kickers is by expected points.

Based on the last 18 college kickers drafted, including Smack, here’s how many points each draftable college kicker is supposed to bring home based on the ranges they’re kicking from:

• PAT: 0.99 points
• 20-29 yards: 2.86
• 20-39: 2.57
• 40-49: 2.17
• 50-59: 1.84

Once you get the make/miss results from these ranges, you can assign a value (positive or negative) to kickers relative to what is expected of the average drafted kicker. Here’s how those numbers look, based on the last 18 kickers drafted:

• Joshua Karty: +14.1 points vs. average drafted kicker
• Will Reichard: +14.1
• Matt Gay: +11.4