Patriots’ strength of schedule does not tell the full story

Kansas City Chiefs

**FanDuel:** 10.5 wins | **2025:** 6-11 (.353) Despite winning just six games last season, Kansas City’s 2026 win total is set at 10.5, a 4.5-win increase. The Patriots are set to play the Chiefs in Kansas City in Week 15 during Monday Night Football. According to ESPN, premier quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who suffered a torn ACL during Week 15 in 2025, is on track to participate in the team’s first OTA practices, which start on May 26. Adam Schefter added on *Get Up*’s Thursday morning program that the feeling within the franchise is that Mahomes is on track to be ready for the franchise’s Week 1 matchup against the Denver Broncos on Sept. 14. While the Chiefs lost contributing pieces in free agency and dealt standout cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Los Angeles Rams, they also added immediate contributors. Kansas City signed Super Bowl 60 MVP Kenneth Walker III and other starters, including a familiar face in defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga, before adding to the defense in the draft with three picks within the first two rounds. One underlying metric worth considering is that the Chiefs posted a staggering 1-9 record in one-score games before Mahomes’ injury. A modest improvement in late-game execution could have significantly altered Kansas City’s 2025 outcome.

Denver Broncos

**FanDuel:** 9.5 wins | **2025:** 14-3 (.824) Another AFC West opponent, the Broncos, are listed at a 4.5 win decrease from their conference-leading 14-3 record in 2025, even though the franchise added star receiver Jaylen Waddle in a blockbuster trade with the Miami Dolphins. One possible explanation for that projection is Denver’s NFL-record 12 comeback wins last season after continuously playing from behind during the regular season. Furthermore, the Broncos’ late-game recoveries sparked 11 one-game victories, playing a crucial role in the team outperforming expectations. Denver still has its key pieces, in addition to Waddle, that led the franchise to the AFC Championship game against New England last season, where the Patriots won a snowy slugfest to advance to the Super Bowl. The rematch is scheduled for Week 17, with a date and time yet to be determined.

Jacksonville Jaguars

**FanDuel:** 9.5 wins | **2025:** 13-4 (.765) After a revitalizing season in Jacksonville, where the Jaguars returned to the playoffs with a 13-4 record, the franchise’s projected win total for 2026 decreased by 3.5 wins. New England will travel to Jacksonville during Week 3 for a 1 p.m. matchup on Sunday, Sept. 27. A new regime led by head coach Liam Coen elevated the Jaguars into one of the AFC’s top contenders. That said, the team failed to acquire substantive talent in free agency and pushed their chips into the 2026 NFL Draft, where they didn’t possess a first-round selection. Jacksonville also lost Pro Bowl linebacker Devin Lloyd to the Carolina Panthers and running back Travis Etienne Jr., who was ninth in the NFL in total scrimmage yards for running backs in 2025 with 1,399, to the New Orleans Saints in free agency. While most of the Jaguars’ roster remains intact from 2025, and Coen has the opportunity to build on last season’s success, the lack of considerable additions could be a factor in the team’s declining 2026 win projection.

Miami Dolphins

**FanDuel:** 4.5 wins | **2025:** 8-9 (.470) Following a 6-4 finish in their last 10 games, the Miami Dolphins concluded the 2025 season with an 8-9 record, but, similar to Jacksonville, their projected win total for 2026 also decreased by 3.5 wins. Despite the late-season improvement, Miami brought in new head coach Jeff Hafley and completely revamped its roster, trading away Waddle, releasing Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa, and letting Bradley Chubb walk in free agency. In return, the Dolphins signed Malik Willis to a three-year deal and brought in an extensive list of free agents on one-year contracts to fill out their roster depth. The Patriots are currently slated to play the Dolphins in Miami during Week 8 before returning to Foxboro in Week 18. Divisional games often carry more weight because they directly determine divisional seeding, and a team’s conference record is the primary tiebreaker in the playoff standings behind head-to-head matchups.

Las Vegas Raiders

**FanDuel:** 5.5 wins | **2025:** 3-14 (.176) New England is set to play the Las Vegas Raiders during Week 5 at 1 p.m. on Oct. 11 after losing to the team in last season’s home opener. Las Vegas later finished with the No. 1 pick in the draft. The betting line for the Raiders is set at 5.5 victories, a 2.5 increase from last season, after the team burned cash in free agency, signing center Tyler Linderbaum and integral defensive pieces in Kwity Paye, Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean. Las Vegas also traded for veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to replace Geno Smith and drafted 2026 national champion Fernando Mendoza first overall. Whether or not the Raiders can get back on their feet and add to the win column next season, they dramatically improved on paper and have a new head coach in former Seahawks offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to point the franchise in the correct direction.