Phillips Vs. Jourdain Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

How Phillips Wins

Kyler Phillips is an electric striker. He moves a ton on the outside, using direction changes and quick burst movements to catch his opponents off-guard with big attacks. His high kick lands with stunning consistency, and the jiu-jitsu brown belt has a solid wrestling background as well.

If Phillips can ever learn to maintain the pace he sets, he’ll be a serious problem for the division.

This bout has a very different dynamic that both of Jourdain’s recent wins. In those matchups, Jourdain was able to time heavy connections on shorter opponents who were trying to close distance and throw in combination. That’s not at all Phillips’ game, so he should have an easier time of avoiding the counter without that same pressure to come forward.

In fact, Phillips should be countering Jourdain’s pressure. He has the quicker feet and more explosive movement, so he should be trying to stick-and-move against the lankier fighter. One of the best ways to defeat longer fighters is convincing them to step forward into counter shots (think Conor McGregor vs. Nate Diaz 2), so Phillips should be trying to draw Jourdain in by winning the kick battle and staying evasive.

How Jourdain Wins

At Featherweight, Jourdain was a scrapper, durable and high-volume. Down at Bantamweight, he’s more of a sniper, able to catch opponents coming in with precision power shots. Regardless of division, his last three victories come via his trademark guillotine choke.

As mentioned, this is a stylistic shift from Jourdain’s recent wins, as he cannot easily wait around on the back foot versus a quicker opponent. Fortunately, Phillips has his own issues, primarily that he’s much less dangerous in the second and third round compared to the first. With that in mind, a scrappier approach will be necessary.

Jourdain should be tactically pressuring Phillips, getting his feet moving with punches so that he can slam kicks into the trail leg or mid-section. Phillips out-landing him early is a definitely possibility, but Jourdain can turn the tables by refusing him any rest periods. As Phillips feet slow, Jourdain will be able to see his blitzes more easily and start timing his counter shots.

Phillips vs. Jourdain Prediction

This matchup has forced me to rethink how much of Jourdain’s Bantamweight success came from the weight class drop vs. favor style clashes. Both Victor Henry and Davey Grant played right into Jourdain’s hands, and not every Bantamweight will be inclined to do so — that matters a lot.

Still, Phillips is a deeply flawed fighter who cannot maintain his own pace. Jourdain — favorable matchups or not — seems to be coming into his own, whereas Phillips has the same problem that cost him his first UFC defeat back in 2021. He relies on his wrestling to deter pressure, which feels like a great way to dive into a guillotine as his cardio starts to fail him.

Prediction: Jourdain via submission