Spring practice has concluded, leading to updated College Football Playoff projections for the 2026 season. Miami, Texas, Oregon, and Notre Dame are currently leading the 12-team bracket.

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Now that spring practice is over, we've refreshed our College Football Playoff and bowl projections ahead of the 2026 season. With a clearer picture of team rosters, incoming freshmen and how transfers fit within respective depth charts, we have a better sense (at least for now) of how things could look when postseason matchups are decided in early December.
This outlook reflects a sport in transition, where expanded playoff access and increased roster movement continue to fuel parity at the top. In fact, recent postseason trends have already shown a surge in first-time playoff participants, suggesting that unpredictability may again define the national title race in 2026.
Like all post-spring predictions, these serve less as definitive outcomes and more as a baseline for debate -- highlighting contenders, potential risers and the ever-present volatility that makes college football's postseason so compelling. We're sticking to the six-win minimum threshold for bowl eligibility here, but, like most years, there will likely be a five-win team (or two) needed to fill slots after coaching-change-related invitation declines or not enough programs meeting the entry requirements.
The latest projections for the 2026 College Football Playoff include Miami, Texas, Oregon, and Notre Dame at the top of the 12-team bracket.
Spring practice helps clarify team rosters and player fit, allowing for more accurate playoff projections as teams prepare for the upcoming season.
Recent postseason trends indicate a surge in first-time playoff participants, although specific teams are not yet confirmed for 2026.
Expanded playoff access and increased roster movement are contributing to greater parity in college football, impacting postseason predictions.
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Onto our picks for the 82 total bowl teams and where they'll play this season (for now!) ...
A few points about a couple of these pre-CFP matchups involving several teams that will have a say in the selection committee's final rankings down the stretch this season:
| Date | Location | Projection | Winner faces |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 18, 2026 | Ohio Stadium Columbus, Ohio | (9) LSU at (8) Ohio State | No. 1 seed |
| Dec. 19, 2026 | Jones AT&T Stadium Lubbock, Texas | (10) SMU at (7) Texas Tech | No. 2 seed |
| Dec. 19, 2026 | Memorial Stadium Bloomington, Ind. | (11) Ole Miss at (6) Indiana | No. 3 seed |
| Dec. 19, 2026 | Sanford Stadium Athens, Ga. | (12) UNLV at (5) Georgia | No. 4 seed |
On the heels of three straight national titles, the Big Ten will produce three of the top eight selections overall per this projection, but it's the SEC with four invites that leads the country in CFP representatives. For the second time since expansion, the ACC will put a pair of teams in the bracket with the projected, multi-loss Big 12 champion and UNLV rounding out the top 12. Texas Tech's projected seed goes from No. 5 to No. 7 in our post-spring update, given the availability question surrounding prized portal acquisition Brendan Sorsby at quarterback after his gambling admission.
11th-seed Ole Miss will play six games against opponents potentially ranked inside the top 25, beginning with Louisville in the opener and ending with Georgia and Oklahoma in November. This is the scenario in which a three-loss SEC team could get to the bracket as the "last team in," given the strength of schedule after Texas failed to do so last season.
Memphis was previously our early pick to come out of the Group of Six ranks this season, but we're bigger believers in UNLV exiting springĀ upon closer inspection and intel. Dan Mullen signed the No. 66 recruiting class nationallyĀ -- tops outside the Power Four -- and acquired 19 transfers this cycle, compared to 53 at Memphis under first-year coach Charles Huff. The two teams face off in the season opener at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Aug. 29, which could determine the early frontrunner to reach the CFP. Former five-star recruit Jackson Arnold, now on his third team in three years, will be UNLV's starting quarterback.
| Date | Game / Location | Projection |
|---|---|---|
| Jan. 1, 2027 | Peach Bowl Atlanta | (1) Miami vs. (8/9) Winner |
| Dec. 30, 2026 | Fiesta Bowl Glendale, Ariz. | (4) Notre Dame vs. (5/12) Winner |
| Jan. 1, 2027 | Cotton Bowl Dallas, Texas | (2) Texas vs. (7/10) Winner |
| Jan. 1, 2027 | Rose Bowl Pasadena, Calif. | (3) Oregon vs. (6/11) Winner |
Our projected champions of the ACC, SEC and Big Ten garner three of the top four seeds along with Notre Dame, whose schedule is conducive to high-end success this season under Marcus Freeman. As long as the Fighting Irish finish within the top 12 of the selection committee's final vote, they have a spot earmarked in the bracket.
After reloading in the transfer portal with several elite signings, including Duke quarterback Darian Mensah and former Missouri pass rusher Damon Wilson II, Miami could have its best team overall in the CFP era. The Hurricanes' showdown at Notre Dame on Nov. 7 is the only matchup in which Mario Cristobal's squad might be an underdog this fall.
Out of respect for Curt Cignetti's proven ability to evaluate, sign and develop, Indiana was the initial call to repeat as Big Ten champions and get back to the Rose Bowl. But the Ducks now have a slight edge coming out of spring. Ohio State, USC, Michigan and Washington are the others within the conference capable of becoming extreme noisemakers near the top of the polls, however.