Predicting year three for Bo Nix

Of course with the average for most stats hovering around zero, there have to be some guys who got a lot worse in year 3. The three who had the biggest negative change in success rate were Derek Anderson (46.4 to 40.4), Drew Brees (42.7 to 35.3) and JaMarcus (the Hutt) Russell (38.1 to 28.1).

It’s interesting to look at outliers in other areas as well. The guy with the biggest jump in passing TDs was Sam Bradford who went from 6 to 21. The Hutt had the biggest drop in passing TDs from 13 to 3. In terms of INTs the biggest improvement was Brian Griese who went from 15 to 4. The biggest percentage increase was Nick Foles who went from 2 to 8. Foles played out of his mind in 2013 and then turned back into a pumpkin for every other year of his career (save for a brilliant playoff run in 2017). Another QB who had a huge jump in INTs in his 3rd season relative to his second was Josh Freeman who went from 6 INTs to 22 INTs. The biggest relative jump in passer rating was Brian Griese at 36%, but Losman (31%) and Allen (26%) also had huge jumps. The three biggest drops in passer rating belong to the Hutt, Jake Plummer (-32%) and Foles (also -32%).

The change in sack% is interesting because while most of these QBs got marginally better as passers in their 3rd season in the NFL, they generally got sacked more. I guess this makes sense. As a QB matures, he tends to realize that a sack is a much better outcome than an INT. The biggest change in sacks belongs to Joey Harrington. He was only sacked 9 times in 16 starts in 2003, he actually had the lowest sack rate in the NFL in his first AND second seasons. In his third season, he improved as a QB and this led to MORE sacks – 36 of them – but his INTs dropped from 22 to 12 in about the same number of pass attempts. Jay Cutler and Nick Foles had the biggest drop in sack rate year 2 to year 3. Year 3 for Cutler was his only Pro Bowl season (back when it meant something). His sacks dropped from 27 in 2007 to 11 in 2008. Ryan Clady played a big role in that drop. Oddly enough, Jay would lead the league in sacks with 52 in 2010 with the Bears – who didn’t have Clady at LT.

But remember how I said Bo Nix is not average, he should all agree that he is at least above average, so what would his 2026 numbers look like if he makes a decent (25% of the maximum) improvement in all stats. That is below.

Those numbers would be really good, but many would not have led the league in 2025. 5186 passing yards would have, but here are the best values in all of those other stats from 2025.

• COMP% – 72.0% (Drake Maye)
• Passing Yards – 4707 (Matthew Stafford)
• TDs – 47 (Stafford)
• Fewest INTs for a full-time starter – 6 (Two tied)
• TD% – 7.7% (Stafford)
• Lowest INT% – 1.3% (Stafford)
• Passer Rating – 113.5 (Maye)
• Lowest Sack Rate – 3.47% (Nix)
• ANYA – 8.3 (two tied)
• Y/C – 13.3 (Lamar Jackson)
• Success Rate – 55.3% (Brock Purdy)

The most passing yards in a 16 game season was Peyton Manning in 2013 with 5477 for the Broncos. There have been 15 times a QB had topped 5000 passing yard in a season. The last was Patrick Mahomes in 2022. That was the last 16 game regular season. Bo got 231 passing yards per game in 2025. For him to get 5186 passing yards in 2026 would mean 305 passing yards per game. Stafford led the league last season with 277. Kermit the QB was the last to top 300 per game (2022). PFM in 2013 got 342 passing yards per game, which still seems like a fever dream (that turned into a nightmare in the Super Bowl).

What do you think Bo will do in 2026 relative to 2025 as far as stats? Let me know in the comments. Of the 68 QBs listed who do you think is the best analogy to Nix?