Predictions, Odds, Analysis! UFC Vegas 116, X-Factor

Bantamweight: Norma Dumont (-215) vs. Joselyne Edwards (+164)Best Win for Dumont? Irene Aldana For Edwards? Nora Cornolle
Current Streak: Dumont has won six in a row, while Edwards has won four straight
X-Factor: Edwards is filling in for Yana Santos on short-notice
How these two match up: Both women can scrap!

Were the Bantamweight title not held up by the return of Amanda Nunes (and this), Dumont would have fought for gold by now. She’s been an above-average boxer who throws good volume for years, but Dumont has really settled into her game and grown more difficult to take down. Edwards is only getting sharper with experience as well. After years without a finish, the Panamanian contender has stopped four straight foes, really sitting down on her punches and jumping on chokes with a new level of aggression.

On the whole, I struggle to find an advantage for Edwards. She might be the slightly harder hitter, but Dumont is durable and accurate on the counter. Dumont is more likely to land a takedown between them, and it feels like she has the hand speed to win a majority of exchanges.

Add in the short-notice element, and the deck is stacked against “La Pantera.”

Prediction: Dumont via decision

Lightweight: Rafa Garcia (+122) vs. Alexander Hernandez (-156)Best Win for Garcia? Jared Gordon For Hernandez? Beneil Dariush
Current Streak: Garcia has won two in a row, while Hernandez has won four in a row
X-Factor: Why the heck did UFC pull Hernandez three months ago?!? There were injury rumors, but never any confirmation.
How these two match up: Experienced and skilled Lightweights try to take another step closer to the rankings.

I’ll confess that Garcia — very much a classic wrestle-boxer — has never really impressed me until his recent knockout win over Jared Gordon (watch highlights). However, one does have to wonder how much of that performance stems from the fact that Gordon was HIT BY A CAR the day before their fight! Maybe this fight will help us find out if Garcia really leveled up … or not.

Similarly, I have doubted Hernandez and been vindicated more than once. Since returning to Lightweight in 2024, however, the athletic wrestler has found more consistent success. He’s managing his gas tank more efficiently, fighting on the counter and timing big connections rather than forcing the action and depleting himself in the process.

My pick here is twofold. I’m unconvinced that Garcia has truly evolved based on the suspicious Gordon win alone, and I do believe that Hernandez has turned a corner. I still won’t be picking “The Great” to defeat any Top 15 opposition, but he has the wrestling to keep this upright and the accurate punching to punish Garcia’s forward pressure. There is the chance that Garcia outlasts him, but we’ve seen “Gifted” gas out himself in other gritty fights, so can we really even be that confident he has a cardio edge?

I’ll back the man who has fought and beaten a higher class of foes.

Prediction: Hernandez via decision

Featherweight: Davey Grant (-120) vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (-106)Best Win for Grant? Jonathan Martinez For Martinetti? Mark Vologdin
Current Streak: Grant lost his last bout, while Martinetti debuts having won 15 straight
X-Factor: UFC jitters for Martinetti
How these two match up: Banger alert!

Grant is a remarkable fighter who would be an absolute fan favorite in any just world. The 40-year-old Englishman hasn’t slowed a bit, perhaps an unlikely benefit of his general inactivity from 2013-2019. Since 2020, however, he’s fought consistently and brought his hard-nosed, full-powered kickboxing to every fight against an excellent caliber of competition.

Martinetti, meanwhile, has built a very impressive 17-1 professional record (with a moderate amount of can-crushing) on the strength of his high-volume kickboxing and quality Brazilian jiu-jitsu. He looked like quite the sniper in his Contender Series debut versus Vologdin, but the 5’3” Russian probably helped his accuracy stats by sprinting into his punches a bit.

Plain and simple, this is a massive step up in competition for Martinetti, one I’m unconvinced he is ready for. Grant is crafty, gritty and powerful. He’s punished many younger, more textbook strikers with his unwavering commitment to stance-shifting and calf kicking. It takes a serious level of composure and power to deter him, and I don’t know that Martinetti is that guy, nor does he appear to have the wrestling necessary to ground his “Dangerous” foe.

Unless Grant is washed after the Charles Jourdain loss, he should be able to beat up the lead leg and build combinations.

Prediction: Grant via decision

Bantamweight: Montel Jackson (-186) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+144)Best Win for Jackson? Daniel Marcos For Barcelos? Payton Talbott
Current Streak: Jackson lost his last bout, while Barcelos has won four in a row
X-Factor: Jackson can be very inactive
How these two match up: Barcelos is receiving his well-earned shot at a ranked opponent!

Jackson is a frustrating fighter with obvious potential. Huge for the division, he has nuclear power in his right hand and is very difficult to take down. However, he’s also prone to inactivity and can be rather one-note with his 1-2, which is the reason the older and smaller Deiveson Figueiredo was able to edge him out last time.

On the flip side, it’s time to accept that the Barcelos career renaissance is here to stay. He fought three times last year and was consistently impressive with his mix of boxing, wrestling, and general relentlessness. He may be 38 years of age, but Barcelos has genuinely never had a better year since the 2012 inception of his professional career.

Funny enough, there’s a trend to Barcelos’ UFC losses. With the exception of Umar Nurmagomedov — who is just unreasonably good, generally — Barcelos has lost to high-volume fighters. He actually does worse against opponents who extend exchanges and strand him in a real boxing match, which sounds kind of like the opposite of a typical Jackson fight?

Don’t get me wrong, “Quik” has the takedown defense and punching power to theoretically spark Barcelos early. If the knockout doesn’t come, however, Barcelos is probably going to land more shots and is much more likely to gain top position with his transitional wrestling. Even if the wrestling doesn’t fully succeed in gaining top position, the threat of the takedown should help keep Jackson’s fearsome left hand at home.

Barcelos keeps the streak alive with another hard-fought win.

Prediction: Barcelos via decision

Heavyweight: Marcus Buchecha (-146) vs. Ryan Spann (+114)Best Win for Buchecha? Amir Aliakbari For Spann? Dominick Reyes
Current Streak: Buchecha enters off a draw, while Spann won his last bout
X-Factor: Buchecha is so raw
How these two match up: The last two weeks have featured fun Heavyweight fights; unfortunately, it doesn’t look like we’re getting a third.

Buchecha is an absolutely world-class grappler … and that’s about it. His striking is awkward, and his wrestling comprises a charging double-leg takedown. The bright side is that he’s only 36 years old with seven professional fights, so there’s still hope that he’ll add more MMA skill to his game in the years to come. Spann, conversely, is a 205-pounder who grew tired of cutting weight. He hits quite hard and has a nasty guillotine choke … and that’s about it!

This matchup reminds me terribly of Buchecha’s last booking versus another puffed up Light Heavyweight in Kennedy Nzechukwu. In that bout, Buchecha struggled to land takedowns consistently despite his size advantage and lost two of three rounds. It was a sloppy affair that saw him tired and largely out-struck despite that picture above.

I actually think Spann is all-around better than Nzechukwu, which is concerning for Buchecha’s chances. A problem he may run into is that Spann often uses jiu-jitsu to defend takedowns, which could seriously backfire against such a gifted grappler. Still, the liabilities in Buchecha’s conditioning and wrestling are impossible to overlook, and the sprawl-and-brawl gameplan should be abundantly obvious.

If Spann taps a tired Buchecha with his trademark guillotine choke, I’ll laugh out loud.

Prediction: Spann via knockout

‘X-Factor’ Picks for 2026: 23-11

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