Preview: UFC Winnipeg ‘Burns vs. Malott’

Six years ago, after moving up from lightweight to welterweight and before his recent decline, Burns was one of the most dangerous offensive fighters of his era: a multiple-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion who also possessed top-shelf athleticism and huge punching power. A bit like fellow grappling crossover Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza, Burns’ physical horsepower allowed him to develop solid offensive wrestling, enabling him to get the fight to the canvas without pulling guard or laboring in the clinch. It was a potent combination, and Burns came tantalizingly close to winning a UFC title when he hurt Kamaru Usman in the first round of their meeting at UFC 258.

Burns’ style, exciting and effective as it was, depended heavily on both fast-twitch movement and durability, and as those traits have declined, so have his results in the cage. Again, there is no shame in any of the four losses individually, but taken as a whole, they paint a discouraging picture. It is difficult to imagine the Burns of 2021 being repeatedly beaten to the punch by Jack Della Maddalena, slammed all over the place by Sean Brady or effortlessly sprawled n’ brawled by Michael Morales.

Having established that Burns can no longer compete with the Top 5 at welterweight, it remains to be seen whether his decline has already met and passed the gradual rise of Malott (13-2-1; 6-1 UFC). Promotional spots for UFC Winnipeg insist on calling Malott a prospect, which feels strange considering the Haligonian is 34 years old and has been fighting in top-tier shows for a decade, but it’s accurate at least in the sense that he has gradually improved from the fighter who came through Dana White's Contender Series in 2021.

Malott is a big, powerful athlete who possesses well-rounded skills. On the feet, he throws punches in combination, employs hard leg kicks, and while his hand speed is just average for the division, he has good power.

Malott is a solid wrestler with a nice shot from the outside as well as effective clinch takedowns that make use of his strength and persistence. He is more effective as a grappler when he initiates the takedown and ends up in top position, where he has heavy ground-and-pound and is equally comfortable taking his opponent’s back or working for topside submissions.

In his lone UFC setback to date, Malott came out strong against Neil Magny, only to fade and get ground into dust late. At the time it happened, a little over two years ago, that loss seemed to indicate a flaw in Malott’s game, and a path to victory for future opponents. However, he has bounced back with three straight wins, including two that went the distance. It’s possible that Malott’s conditioning and pacing have improved, that he simply fell victim to an all-time builder in Magny, or a bit of both.

Four years ago, when Malott was fresh out of the Contender Series and Burns was stepping up on short notice to give Khamzat Chimaev a shockingly tough test, this would have been a glaring mismatch and the odds would likely have been reversed. In April 2026, though, Burns faces an uphill battle, as he is probably not quick or durable enough to make his outside-in striking work against Malott, and may not be the better wrestler or stronger fighter, which means he may be stuck on the feet.

As such, his best routes to victory involve either catching Malott with a big punch, or dragging him into deep waters and hoping that Malott’s newfound three-round cardio does not extend to five. Those sound like low-percentage outcomes, and I’m leaning heavily towards the younger man here. The pick is Malott by second or third-round TKO.

Jump To »
Burns vs. Malott
Phillips vs. Jourdain
Nallo vs. Herbert
Jasudavicius vs. Silva
Moises vs. Young
Buzukja vs. Barbosa
The Prelims

Bantamweights

Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain

BETTING ODDS: Jourdain (-140); Phillips (+110)

In the co-main event, Phillips (12-4; 6-3 UFC) seeks to pick up his first win in two years against the red-hot Jourdain (17-8-1; 8-7 UFC), who is perfect since dropping down to 135 pounds. On one hand, the “Matrix” is 6-3 in the UFC and commands enough clout to be the A-side of a UFC co-headliner. On the other, it’s difficult not to see his UFC run as a bit of a letdown; five years ago when he took a huge step up and upset Top-10 contender Yadong Song, Phillips looked like a future star who would be fighting for titles by now, not trying to stave off a third straight loss.

Phillips was, and remains, a nimble, fluid athlete who employs his natural gifts in service of an unconventional striking attack. His karate-based style is heavy on the movement, switches stances smoothly and employs the natural dexterity in his kicks. At his best, Phillips is a very underrated offensive wrestler who uses his speed and the element of surprise to get easy takedowns against foes who start to chase him on the feet.

The flaws in Phillips’ game have been illustrated in his last two fights. Rob Font frustrated him badly on the feet simply by coming forward, pressuring him with a persistent jab and cutting off the cage, a bit like a bantamweight version of Sean Strickland vs. Israel Adesanya. Vinicius Oliveira was able to pursue and track him down, at which point Oliveira’ advantages in size, strength and power came into play. In both cases, Phillips’ striking volume, which has always been inconsistent, fell off badly once he was challenged and put on his back foot.

Jourdain’s move down from featherweight has been brilliant thus far. At featherweight, he was a freakishly quick, high-flying striker whose front headlock was just as fast as his front snap kick, but he ran into a ceiling against Sean Woodson and Jean Silva, whose advantages in sheer size and power were too much to overcome. Through two fights at 135 pounds, the returns have been good, as Jourdain has still been easily the faster man in the cage, and he has looked outstanding in tapping out Victor Henry and Davey Grant with nearly identical guillotine chokes.

Jourdain is a high-volume striker who switches stances frequently, moving around on the outside and chipping away with jabs and low kicks, setting up openings to explode with flying knees or head kicks. While Jourdain clearly favors striking, he is a venomously opportunistic grappler, with a front headlock every bit as dangerous as his arsenal of flying ninja stuff on the feet. He now counts four submissions, all of them by guillotine choke, since his last knockout in the UFC.

Jourdain is a slight favorite here, but I think the matchup and the momentum both favor him more strongly than the line suggests. Phillips is faced here with a striker who can match his speed and outgunning him with volume and power, and even if he turns to his wrestling, there’s no guarantee that he will be able to get Jourdain down—assuming he doesn’t just shoot straight into a guillotine. That’s actually a distinct possibility, and the pick here is that Jourdain gets slightly the better of a fun striking battle in Round 1 before snaring Phillips in his patented choke for a second-round submission.

Jump To »
Burns vs. Malott
Phillips vs. Jourdain
Nallo vs. Herbert
Jasudavicius vs. Silva
Moises vs. Young
Buzukja vs. Barbosa
The Prelims

Lightweights

Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert

BETTING ODDS: Nallo (-180); Herbert (+150)

Former Bellator MMA mainstay Nallo (14-3, 1 NC) makes his promotional debut in this lightweight feature. “Rat Garbage” is one of the best nicknames in the game, but there’s nothing particularly trashy about the 36-year-old Tristar Gym product. Nallo is a tall, rangy striker with pinpoint accuracy and big power in his hands, as well as some vicious kicks that he can throw to the legs, body and head.

Nallo’s biggest struggles have alaways come against wrestlers. Adam Piccolotti took him down over and over again, largely dominating their fight, while Nick Browne took him down early, then caught him dropping his guard to defend a level change and blasted him on the feet. To his credit, Nallo is not one of those kickboxers who stops throwing when confronted with a grappler; even after he’s taken down, he is throwing upkicks, punches and elbows from the bottom, trying to punish his opponent at all times.

Herbert (13-6-1; 3-5-1 UFC) is similar to Nallo in broad strokes: “The Black Country Banger” is also a six-foot-plus lightweight with long reach who prefers a distance kickboxing battle. He doesn’t flash quite the same numbing power as Nallo, partly because he doesn’t swing for the fences on every shot, but he can absolutely crack. Witness his head kick on Ilia Topuria, which is still the only knockdown Topuria has suffered in the UFC and easily the hardest shot anyone has landed on the two-division champ.

Like Nallo, Herbert has the difficulties with takedown defense that one might expect in a long-legged fighter who stands upright and kicks a lot, but he defends with a good sprawl and underhooks, and if taken down, he defends himself well and works diligently to get back up. Herbert has always had the vibe of a fighter who is better than his wins and losses suggest, but going into his 10th Octagon bout, he is running out of time to prove it.

This is a tough fight to call, as Nallo has looked fantastic against badly overmatched fighters over the last few years while Herbert has had mixed results against a much higher level of opposition. My podcast co-host Keith and I were divided on this one, with Keith picking Herbert to pull off the upset. It’s possible that, faced with a foe who is unlikely to test his wrestling and tends to overswing on some of his strikes, Herbert will school Nallo with combination striking and footwork. However, I’m going with the newcomer here, cracking Herbert a few times with big shots and keeping him on the back foot for most of the fight. The pick is Nallo by decision.

Jump To »
Burns vs. Malott
Phillips vs. Jourdain
Nallo vs. Herbert
Jasudavicius vs. Silva
Moises vs. Young
Buzukja vs. Barbosa
The Prelims

Flyweights

Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Karine Silva

BETTING ODDS: Jasudavicius (-300); Silva (+250)

Jasudavicius (14-4; 8-3 UFC) will attempt to wash away the memory of her crushing loss to Manon Fiorot last fall against Silva (19-6; 5-2 UFC), who is coming off a discouraging loss of her own. Jasudavicius has been a pleasant surprise since joining the UFC five years ago, looking competitive immediately against Top 10 fighters, then going on a five-fight win streak that earned her the likely title eliminator against Fiorot.

Much of Jasudavicius’ success comes down to knowing her own strengths and weaknesses, and game-planning around them. The 37-year-old Ontario native is a very big flyweight, tall and powerfully built, and while her hand and foot speed are below average, she has good reach and throws punches in combination.