Preview: UFC Winnipeg Prelims

For Canadian fans, the good news about the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s upcoming trek north of the border is that it’s all but a guarantee they’ll be back soon.

UFC Fight Night 273, which goes down Saturday at Canada Life Centre in Winnepeg, represent’s the UFC’s first visit to that city since December 2017 and its first trip to Canada this year. In terms of established name value and immediate rankings implications, UFC Winnipeg is one of the weakest road offerings of the post-Covid era, but that doesn’t mean it’s devoid of interest or relevance. The 13-fight lineup features most of the promotion’s top Canadians, and the undercard in particular has a focus on new up-and-coming talent, including a pair of debuting fighters and the still-developing Melissa Croden. Add in the return of mulleted fan favorite Tanner Boser, and the makings of a fun evening of prelims are there.

Let us get on with the preview for the UFC Winnipeg undercard:

Middleweights

Julien Leblanc vs. Robert Valentin

BETTING ODDS: Valentin (-130); Leblanc (+110)

Quebec’s Leblanc (10-2) makes his promotional debut here against “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 32 finalist Valentin (10-6, 1 NC; 0-3 UFC), who is probably facing his last chance at a first UFC win. The 34-year-old former Samourai MMA middleweight champ is tall (even if he will probably be the much shorter man on Saturday) and aggressive, a southpaw who closes the distance quickly on the feet and unloads with big punches and kicks. He has good power, though he does overswing. Leblanc is fond of creating collisions in which he can find ways to bring his opponent down with trips and body locks, and he is a capable top position grappler. He is on a long win streak, but most of it has come against very middling opposition; it remains to be seen how he will adapt to foes who aren’t simply overwhelmed by his approach.

We may or may not find the answer on Saturday, as Valentin’s post-TUF run in the UFC is practically the definition of “overwhelmed.” The 31-year-old Zurich native brings a few interesting tools—he is imposingly tall and rangy, and a dangerous grappler—but has struggled to make any of it work in the Octagon. As a technically sound striker with poor speed and power, and a capable grappler with terrible offensive wrestling, he is at the mercy of his opponents, who generally have been able to get their own game going against him with ease, whether it was Ryan Loder and Torrez Finney taking him down at will or Ateba Abega Gautier plunking him quickly on the feet.

Leblanc is taking a major step up here. Valentin might be the lowest-level middleweight in the UFC right now, but he is also probably the best fighter Leblanc has faced. Valentin is the slight favorite, and it’s certainly possible that he will finally have the chance to flex some of his interesting offensive weapons against an opponent who can’t just steamroll him. However, I’m leaning towards the slight upset here. Leblanc’s approach is straightforward, but he knows what he’s good at and has the will to pursue it, and thus far, that has been enough to get past Valentin. The pick is Leblanc by decision.

Jump To »
Leblanc vs. Valentin
Boser vs. Saricam
Croden vs. Zheleznyakova
Aldrich vs. Horth
Raposo vs. Nascimento
Castaneda vs. Vologdin
Siraj vs. Yannis

Heavyweights

Tanner Boser vs. Gokhan Saricam

BETTING ODDS: Saricam (-160); Boser (+130)

After a two-year layoff and a bounceback fight in UAE Warriors, Boser (22-10-1; 6-5 UFC) makes his return in front of what should be a partisan crowd of his countrymen. When “The Bulldozer” arrived in the UFC in 2019, he looked for a while like a future Top 10 heavyweight: an undersized, but quick and well-conditioned fighter who used movement and volume to leave more plodding big men in the dust. He hit a ceiling at heavyweight, and a move down to 205 pounds did not particularly improve his fortunes, as his speed advantage evaporated at light heavyweight, without any significant payoff in relative power. Boser’s struggles are mostly down to losing what got him there in the first place. His movement slowed and his striking volume tapered off, and his durability seemed to be waning as well, leaving him vulnerable to being outgunned on the feet or taken down to the ground.

Saricam (11-2) is making his debut on Saturday, but some might remember his lengthy run in Bellator MMA. The 35-year-old Turkish-Dutch heavyweight comes from a kickboxing background, but to his credit, he has worked to round out his skills, and takes a strategic approach to his fights. Witness his final bout in Bellator, in which he could have chosen to test his striking chops against Daniel James, but opted instead to lean heavily on his offensive wrestling, thus minimizing his own risk against a dangerous knockout artist. However, Saricam’s own takedown defense remains poor, and while he has a diverse striking arsenal and solid defensive fundamentals on the feet, he is fairly slow and too prone to throwing single strikes, especially later in fights.

This is a tough fight to call, and my preview co-host Keith and I were divided in our predictions. Neither of these two looks like a future contender at this point, but I lean towards Boser in the upset. I think he might still be quicker and throw more strikes than Saricam, and be able to pick up two out of three close rounds.

Jump To »
Leblanc vs. Valentin
Boser vs. Saricam
Croden vs. Zheleznyakova
Aldrich vs. Horth
Raposo vs. Nascimento
Castaneda vs. Vologdin
Siraj vs. Yannis

Bantamweights

Melissa Croden vs. Darya Zheleznyakova

BETTING ODDS: Croden (-160); Zheleznyakova (+130)

“Scare” Croden (7-3; 1-1 UFC) defends home soil in this women’s bantamweight matchup, and in a division so depleted that practically anyone is three wins away from a title shot, it might actually be the most important fight on the undercard. Croden is, as her name implies, a lanky bantamweight, imposingly tall but with plenty of strength to go with her long frame. Her build is a bit like Macy Chiasson’s, and at times she has been able to follow a similar path to victory, favoring an “all the way out or all the way in” striking approach, either engaging with long kicks and jabs at range or punishing foes with knees and elbows in the clinch. However, Croden’s inside weapons are sometimes not up to the task of keeping a determined, shorter and quicker opponent off her, as Luana Santos showed in defeating her in December.

Zheleznyakova (10-2; 2-1 UFC) is nearly as big as Croden but uses her tools differently, favoring a movement-heavy distance kickboxing match. She employs a variety of kicks at range, and throws good punching combinations, including some nice body work, but her takedown defense is a liability and her ground game, especially from the bottom, is very limited. As such, her success hinges on her ability to stay upright, which in turn depends mostly on her lateral movement, as her best bet for defending takedowns is to avoid them completely. While Croden will be one of the few opponents who can match Zheleznyakova’s height and reach, the Russian is likely to have the advantage at distance, while a close-quarters fight will leave her more vulnerable to the takedown as well as Croden’s clinch weapons.

Both of these women have some impressive weapons and some glaring shortcomings, but they are among the more promising 135-pounders in the UFC that haven’t already peaked and/or fought everyone in the division. Expect this to be a very close affair, and possibly a bit of an ugly fight, as Croden pursues Zheleznyakova on straight lines and tries to corral her against the fence. The pick here is that she manages to do so often enough to win at least two of the three rounds. Croden by decision.

Jump To »
Leblanc vs. Valentin
Boser vs. Saricam
Croden vs. Zheleznyakova
Aldrich vs. Horth
Raposo vs. Nascimento
Castaneda vs. Vologdin
Siraj vs. Yannis

Flyweights

J.J. Aldrich vs. Jamey-Lyn Horth

BETTING ODDS: Horth (-180); Aldrich (+150)

Aldrich (14-7; 10-6 UFC) meets Horth (9-2; 4-2 UFC) in a clash of flyweights with a number of striking similarities. Both arrived in the UFC relatively unheralded and have gone on to be very pleasant surprises. Both are good-sized, physically strong flyweights who make up for average athleticism with conditioning, well-rounded skills and smart game planning. Coming out of Season 23 of “The Ultimate Fighter” a decade ago, nobody would have picked Aldrich to be one of the show’s standout performers, let alone the winningest woman on the entire cast, but here she is. Aldrich moved up from strawweight to flyweight a few years ago, but even at 125 pounds she can hold her own in terms of physicality. Unlike many fighters who overcome a speed deficit by becoming close-quarters grinders, Aldrich has a disciplined middle-distance kickboxing game that at its best uses combination punching and ample volume to do damage and win rounds. She is a decent wrestler and can handle herself on the mats better than her zero submission wins might imply, but she is much more successful when she gets the kind of striking battle she prefers.

Horth is a bit of a late bloomer; actually older than Aldrich but with half the professional bouts, and while that does not sound like an advantage, at 36 and 35 respectively, these women are entering the part of the career line graph where “experience” and “wear and tear” begin to cross paths. Heading into her bout with Tereza Bleda last December, Horth had already overachieved relative to expectations in the UFC, but she had a bit of a breakout performance there, showing off stout takedown defense and nasty finishing instincts in a first-round TKO win. After that win, her power might not be underrated for much longer, and along with it she offers good pace and cardio, and great toughness and tenacity. She employs a basic set of kickboxing combinations but her power is underrated; most of her opponents seem surprised by how much it hurts when she hits them. When she decides to come forward, she is relentless, absorbing some punishment so that she can get her hands on her foe and go to work, either with close-range dirty boxing or sneaky takedowns.

This is a closely matched fight, more so than the odds indicate. Both of these women are tough, skilled and very good at putting themselves in the best possible position to win. Thus far Aldrich, as a classic jack (jill?) of all trades, has only lost badly to women who could outmatch her badly in one phase—say Veronica Hardy’s speed or Erin Blanchfield’s offensive wrestling and grappling—and then dictate a fight on their terms. Horth will not do that, as both fighters here bring similar tools and favor a broadly similar fight, and this fight will probably be very competitive for that reason. The pick is Horth by decision.

Jump To »
Leblanc vs. Valentin
Boser vs. Saricam
Croden vs. Zheleznyakova
Aldrich vs. Horth
Raposo vs. Nascimento
Castaneda vs. Vologdin
Siraj vs. Yannis

Flyweights

Mitch Raposo vs. Allan Nascimento

BETTING ODDS: Nascimento (-200); Raposo (+165)

Fresh from his first Octagon win, Raposo (10-3; 1-2 UFC) will seek to build on that momentum against Nascimento (22-6; 4-1 UFC) who will stake his own four-fight win streak in this flyweight attraction. Headed into his bout with Azat Maksum at UFC 321 last October, Raposo appeared to be a better, more skilled fighter than his 0-3 record across Dana White's Contender Series and his first two UFC bouts indicated, and he proved it, rallying from early adversity to leave Maksum in the dust. More than just picking up the W, Raposo showed the breadth of his skills, his grit and his composure, and the contrast between Raposo getting suplexed on his head in Round 1, and Maksum being penalized a point in Round 3 for clinging to the fence like a toddler who didn’t want to leave Chuck E. Cheese, was remarkable. Raposo is a compact athlete who came to MMA with solid wrestling, has added a nice boxing game to his skill set, and continues to struggle at times to combine the two in such a way that he, not his opponent, is controlling the fight.

At 34, Nascimento is seven years older than his foe, and he has more than twice the professional experience. He is a huge flyweight—to a fault; he missed weight against Jafel Filho less than a year ago—with long reach in both his arms and legs. Like many of his bleach-blond Chute Boxe Diego Lima brethren, “Puro Osso” is a much more competent and potent offensive striker than one might think, based on his ratio of knockout to submission wins. He employs a classic CBDL muay thai style, not unlike his bigger teammate Charles Oliveira, whipping kicks and laser-straight one-twos out of an upright stance and meeting opponents with knees and elbows when they close the distance. On the ground he is a serious threat everywhere, punishing foes with hard, accurate ground strikes, taking back control in a flash and threatening with chokes or armbars. He is only an average offensive wrestler at best, however, meaning that he can be dependent on scrambles, standing back takes and even guard pulling to get the fight to the ground at times.

Nascimento is a pretty big favorite here and it’s easy to understand why. He is far more proven against a far higher level of competition, and thus far his only loss in the UFC was a competitive split decision in his debut, against a Top 10 fighter in Tagir Ulanbekov. Meanwhile, Raposo looked very impressive in whupping up on a formerly blue-chip prospect that might be fading fast in Maksum. However, I am leaning towards the upset here, for reasons both intangible and semi-tangible. On the semi-tangible front, Nascimento is a massive fighter for the division with a massive weight cut and has actually fought at catchweights in his last two outings; while the Cody Durden fight was held at 130 pounds due to the short-notice booking, the fact remains that Nascimento has not made 126 pounds for a fight in over three years. Considering how Raposo steamrolled an overweight, exhausted Maksum late, if Nascimento’s weight cut is a hard one, this fight already has “upset” written all over it.

However, there’s an intangible element at work here as well. Watching Raposo take over against Maksum last October, you can almost see the youngster realize, in real time, that he’s a UFC-level flyweight. The talent had always been there, the three losses had all come against very good fighters, and everything finally clicked. Confidence matters, and my guess is that it makes the difference here. The pick is Raposo by decision, very possibly by once again weathering some early adversity to win Rounds 2 and 3 in increasingly impressive fashion.

Jump To »
Leblanc vs. Valentin
Boser vs. Saricam
Croden vs. Zheleznyakova
Aldrich vs. Horth
Raposo vs. Nascimento
Castaneda vs. Vologdin
Siraj vs. Yannis

Bantamweights

John Castaneda vs. Mark Vologdin

BETTING ODDS: Castaneda (-120); Vologdin (+100)

Castaneda (21-8; 4-4 UFC) welcomes Dana White's Contender Series graduate Vologdin to the UFC in a probable bantamweight banger. “Sexi Mexi” joined the promotion as a short-notice Covid signing and, like quite a few other fighters that year, parlayed his shot at the big time into steady employment as a reliable mid-card action fighter. Castaneda is a solid, high-volume striker and a decent offensive wrestler who constantly presses the issue; he has no reverse gear and, once the punches start flying, rarely even downshifts. It makes for consistently fun fights especially when faced with a similar opponent, but when Castaneda finds himself at a physical or tactical disadvantage, he usually doesn’t make any adjustments other than to keep doing the same thing, only harder. He’s taken a good amount of punishment over the years and at 34, may be starting to slow a bit.

Every season of the Contender Series seems to produce one or two absolute barnburners that leave the Apex hundreds on their feet and inspire Dana White to sign the losing as well as the winning fighter. Vologdin, who came up short against Juan Adrian Luna Martinetti in a blood-soaked brawl last October, is the most recent beneficiary of that phenomenon, but he has the tools the be more than just “the Stephan Bonnar of Season 9.” The baby-faced Russian, who turns 26 on fight night but looks 16, is a short, burly and very athletic bantamweight. He presents as a classic wrestle-boxer, but unlike many shorter fighters who look to close the distance quickly and then stay on the inside as much as possible, he likes to set up outside, feint and then spring into range with bursts of punches. It’s an approach reminiscent of Michael Chandler—at least, when Vologdin sticks to it. In his memorable scrap on DWCS, he had success early on as an out-fighter against Luna, who despite being much taller wanted the close-quarters fight. However, once the punches started flying, Vologdin quickly abandoned that plan, planted his feet and swung back. That led directly to the wild fight, and indirectly to his being signed to the UFC off of a loss, but there is a decent chance that he could have beaten Luna with a more disciplined approach to his original game plan.

Everything about this matchup screams “Fight of the Night.” Both fighters are known for ratcheting up the aggression, both are high-volume strikers, and both are capable of wrestling but tend to neglect it when they’re having fun on the feet. This one is a near pick ‘em on the odds, but I like the younger, still-improving prospect in this one. The pick is Vologdin by decision.

Jump To »
Leblanc vs. Valentin
Boser vs. Saricam
Croden vs. Zheleznyakova
Aldrich vs. Horth
Raposo vs. Nascimento
Castaneda vs. Vologdin
Siraj vs. Yannis

Bantamweights

Jamie Siraj vs. John Yannis

BETTING ODDS: Siraj (-250); Yannis (+200)

In the opening bout, Vancouver-based prospect Siraj (14-3) makes his UFC debut against Yannis (9-4; 0-1 UFC), who moves down to bantamweight to meet him. Something to note about Siraj right away is that he will be fighting at 135 pounds for the first time in at least five or six years, as he fought at featherweight as recently as this February, and has competed several times at lightweight. “The Gremlin” sports a compact frame that makes bantamweight seem plausible, but to add that weight cut to the pressure already entailed by his UFC debut is an interesting move. Siraj is powerful but a modest athlete, setting up primarily in orthodox but switching stances frequently, and compensates for his height and reach deficits with constant forward motion. At his best, he is a solid wrestle-boxer, keeping opponents on their back foot and mixing in well-timed takedown attempts with his very aggressive striking. Against mid-level regional opposition, even foes who dwarfed him, Siraj was frequently overwhelming, but in his lone meeting with a really good fighter, he was dominated by Diego Brandao, who was faster and sharper on the feet and a vastly stronger grappler. Siraj was reduced to some wild swings and low-percentage leglock attempts en route to getting posterized on the feet late in Round 1.

Yannis had a ridiculously tough draw in his UFC debut last August, getting the call on short notice to move up a weight class and take on once-beaten featherweight phenom Austin Bashi. Bashi ran right through him, taking him down effortlessly and choking him out in the first round without appearing to suffer a single significant strike. It was practically a no-lose situation for the Texan, but he didn’t really gain anything other than a chance to redeem himself here. Yannis is a striker by preference, a boxer with decent hand speed and power who, like most, does his best work when he throws in combination. He has good kicks as well, but tends to abandon them quickly if he’s concerned about being taken down. Early in his career, defensive wrestling was a huge problem for Yannis, and it’s still his biggest weak spot, but it isn’t as bad as Bashi made it look. Once taken down, Yannis doesn’t do much beyond trying to get back up, but he does at least display some urgency to do so.

This is an interesting matchup between two fighters who, at best, appear to be middle-shelf UFC bantamweights, but could stick around for a while and give us some really fun fights. If Siraj’s weight cut goes smoothly, the greater than 2-to-1 odds in his favor probably make sense, as he should be able to control the fight with his wrestling, which will in turn blunt some of Yannis’ weapons on the feet. If Siraj blows weight and/or looks terrible, there is certainly upset potential there—Yannis hits hard and has a decent get-up game, and having to take someone down repeatedly is one of the most tiring tasks in combat sports. However, the lean here is that Siraj, who is a veteran regional contender who has already branched out into coaching, is professional enough to have things dialed in on the scale, and that should be enough to win a clear but competitive decision.

Jump To »
Leblanc vs. Valentin
Boser vs. Saricam
Croden vs. Zheleznyakova
Aldrich vs. Horth
Raposo vs. Nascimento
Castaneda vs. Vologdin
Siraj vs. Yannis