Prime Picks: UFC 328 ‘Chimaev vs. Strickland’

Strickland’s best chance of victory is to truly frustrate his opponent, which he could do by combining his in-cage chirping with a solid sprawl plus a speedy stand-up game to tire Chimaev out. We have seen Chimaev go five grueling rounds when largely on top, but questions of the limited gas tank still loom should he face brick that can hit back. On the other hand, have you seen “Borz” fight? Even for those of us who may have scored it for Gilbert Burns and/or Kamaru Usman against him or as a draw, there is little doubt as to what Chimaev wants to do. Were Robert Whittaker to have survived longer and not gotten his jaw mangled in three-and-a-half minutes, we could push this with more confidence. Still, it appears better than trying to flip a coin as to how you think Chimaev will win, or pushing the +450 button on Strickland to do the darn thing.

Jim “Expletive Deleted” Miller (+250)

Does the old dog have one more in him? Turning 43 at the end of August, we are on borrowed time when it comes to the Warthog “A-10.” Few can laud his durability both as it pertains to engaging in his career 59th bout, as well as the fact that he has only been stopped with strikes in two of those. In a de facto elder statesmen contest, the UFC properly matched Miller against a 37-year-old Jared Gordon with plenty of wear-and-tear as well. While he has been caught before, it has been a while since Gordon has gone down quick. Miller may only have that first round of explosive destructiveness in him, but he did show against Gabriel Benitez he still can strike late—although this was coming up on two-and-a-half years ago, which is an eternity for an athlete over the age of 40.

What this boils down to is the faithfulness that Miller, an opportunistic grappler who has recent found his “old man” strength after conquering Lyme disease, can pressure and constantly threaten Gordon until he submits. Gordon can still hang and bang it out, as he aced Thiago Moises just under a year ago. It is also the fighter who outperformed Paddy Pimblett, only for judges Douglas Crosby, Chris Lee and Ron McCarthy to muck it up—six different scorers who now or still work for Sherdog all thought Gordon won that one, but that was then and this is now. Gordon will have to outlast the revved engine until Miller runs out of steam, but it will be perilous the whole way. Is that peril worth plunking down cashola on Miller getting one more done, and putting himself one step closer to 50 fights? Why not. It’s Jim [censored] Miller. Having a vested interested rooting for someone like Miller on fight night will provide more enjoyment than the $10 cup of cloyingly sweet Starbucks you pick up Monday on the way to the office.

Ateba Abega Gautier (-1500)

To quote the inimitable Brendan Schaub, water we dune hair, B? With all respect to Osman Diaz, who snagged his first UFC win last year against a flawed but dangerous Djorden Santos, why was he the one matched against Gautier? When we boil it down, we know why. This was not a late replacement pairing, nor was it something coming together under extenuating circumstances. Ten wins against three losses, with all three of them by knockout? The matchmakers genuinely thought that the proper path to develop this burgeoning knockout artist who is already 4-0 in the UFC was against a knockout prone slugger who could not even get past sub-.500 Santiago Diaz a handful of years ago? It’s a squash match, plain and simple, and the UFC should not be in the business of making those. This isn’t boxing.

This bout appears selfish from a promotional perspective. Other than giving Gautier the possibility to build on his ample highlight reel, and red meat for the crowd in the form of an anticipated vicious knockout, how does “The Silent Assassin” progress up the ranks when he is relegated to facing opposition ranked outside of the top 100 in his division according to FightMatrix? While the UFC does not need to rush Gautier into something silly like a fight against Roman Dolidze, the roster practically overfloweth with more reasonable names he could face.

From the betting perspective, the lopsided nature of this pairing has driven the line up as far as -1800 on some books. Bets do not make the fight, and those numbers do not tell the whole story. That said, after a bit over 100 fights in the UFC that have one athlete favored at -1000 or above, just a handful of underdogs have pulled off those wins. The implied win probability for a -1500 line is 93.75%, which lines up quite well with the actual win percentage of fighters closing with -1000 odds in their direction. While we watch for that 6.25% to happen, would you stake your bank account on it? It’s not worth betting on either way; put a flier on Bobby Green by stoppage at +175 instead. Should the expected happen and Gautier lamp the hapless Diaz, at this rate get ready for Gautier vs. Sedriques Dumas or Cody Brundage in the future. With Gautier around -900.