Prime Picks: UFC Perth & PFL Sioux Falls

The UFC bent over backwards to give Tuivasa and Tafa, especially, opponents to beat while on home soil to lather up the crowd. Combined, Sutherland and Christian have combined for three first-round stoppage losses in their UFC tenures to date, but is that enough for similarly skidding athletes like Tuivasa and Tafa receive this much betting confidence? As this at its core is a betting advice column, not all the advice we offer is to bet on so-and-so at this dollar value. Sometimes, finding another way in is reasonable.

That is the case for the big lugs, for sure, as under 2.5 rounds or Fight Doesn’t Start Round 3 are far more reasonable options for these potential slobberknockers of Tuivasa-Sutherland and Tafa-Christian. As for the Erceg bout? If this hits the mat, it’s anyone’s game, so a dog or pass play could be the right call here—if one has confidence in the aging, self-described “awkward” Elliott.

Gerald Meerschaert (+700)

Old habits die hard. One of “our guys,” the gritty determination and “live by the sword, die by the sword” mentality of Meerschaert made him not just a slight fan favorite but one that could pull off a sneaky upset every so often. This is a man in “GM3” who still has yet to win by decision in the Octagon, as if he walks up to every opponent and shouts, “Come on, come on! Do it! Kill me! I’m here! Do it now!” The problem is, his chin can’t cash those checks any longer. It isn’t an accident he has dropped four straight, three by stoppage, as he just seems like a grappler fast running out of options. If he gets it done, it will likely be by some form of choke, perhaps a guillotine when Jacob Malkoun shoots in.

Gerald Meerschaert (+700)

Gerald Meerschaert Wins Inside Distance (+1200)

If the only reasonable path that “GM3” gets it done is by stoppage, why not follow his pattern? At 12-13 in the UFC thus far, the losing stretch has placed his job likely in jeopardy should he fall short again. Whether this is a motivator or false reason for confidence, they will have to figure it out. Still, Malkoun has been caught before, albeit by the mercurial Phil Hawes almost six years ago. Could Meerschaert become the first fighter to submit the Aussie? Given that he holds 29 subs on his record and 12 of those have come over men who had never been submitted, it’s hardly outside the realm of possibility.

Gerald Meerschaert (+700)

Gerald Meerschaert Wins Inside Distance (+1200)

Jacob Malkoun vs. Gerald Meerschaert Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-175)

Let’s get real here, though. The rapid disintegration of the 38-year-old from Wisconsin is yet another example in a long line where time and tide wait for no man. They say that the last thing that goes is the power, but considering “GM3” has not outstruck an opponent in a winning performance since tapping Bruno Silva in 2022, his submission game may be the “power” in question. Gone are the sneaky counters, the traps set to transition to some deft maneuver. Freeze him in his tracks and he’s a regular Dom Flamenco waiting to get combo-ed down to dust. Malkoun may not be the most crushing force, but given who he is up against, a stoppage could indeed materialize out of thick air. As Meerschaert’s likely only path to victory is by an unexpected submission out of nowhere, go for the under rather than trying to catch lightning in a bottle one last time.

A world class welterweight clash headlines PFL Sioux Falls: Tune in Saturday, May 2 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Logan Storley (-195)

The PFL Sioux Falls main attraction is one tailor-made for the lone favorite at the moment to flourish with relative ease.

If following along with the PFL trivia the last year or so, we have indicated quite clearly that Storley is an elite Minnesota Golden Gopher wrestler with as many D-I A-A’s as Bo Nickal. He has translated that extremely well into an MMA career, although that skillset has resulted in some deliberate performances to curate a stoppage rate of exactly 50%. To surpass him, it has typically been of the “there are levels to this game” variety showcase, where someone like Shamil Musaev puts the screws to him or Yaroslav Amosov tosses him around willy-nilly.

Against Florim Zendeli, the South Dakotan will encounter someone whose bread and butter is also the grappling game. While winning PFL Europe is one thing, it will almost certainly be Zendeli’s first attempt at taking on a fighter of Storley’s caliber.