Champions League

‘Strength’ decides the Champions League quarterfinals: this is how the Elo model predicts who will reach the semifinals

PSG, Bayern, Barça and Arsenal start with an advantage in matchups where the data rules… but still leaves room for chaos

Champions League predictionsSOFÍA VALGAÑÓN

• MIGUEL ÁNGEL GARCÍA

Updated 06/04/2026

15:44CEST

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The Champions League 2025-26 quarterfinals already have a first reading. And it is not football-related, but mathematical. Using the Elo system —a model borrowed from chess that measures the real ‘strength’ of teams based on their results— it is possible to estimate the probabilities of advancing in each tie. The result: four clear favorites, although none with a completely clear path.

The starting point of the whole model is the ClubElo ranking. It is not a traditional standings table: it does not count titles or accumulated points, but performance. Teams, national sides and even analytics firms use it because it makes it possible to translate differences in level into probabilities of victory. In football, for example, FIFA uses a modified version of the Elo system (called the "SUM" algorithm) for its World Ranking since August 2018.

Each match changes the points teams can earn depending on the opponent, the result and the context. Beating a big team adds much more than doing so against a smaller one, and losing to a weaker side is punished more heavily. That is why Elo is a fairly accurate snapshot of each club’s current competitive level.

With that base, the first thing we do is translate that difference in level into match probabilities. In other words, if one team has more Elo than another, it becomes the favorite, but not absolutely: the system turns it into a percentage chance of winning. This yields a realistic estimate, where even the underdog always has room.

Our predictive adaptation

From there, taking the ranking at the moment the pairings were set (March 18), at MARCA we have adapted the model to real knockout ties. First, by incorporating the home-field factor —key in the Champions League—. Playing at home is not the same as playing away, and the model includes it as a small “bonus” for the home team, an average advantage of +65 Elo points. In practical terms, this makes many ties more balanced: a team may be weaker overall, but the favorite in its stadium. This explains why several matchups look so tight when analyzed game by game.

The next step is to adapt those probabilities to what really happens in football: it is not all wins or losses, there are also draws. For that, an average draw rate based on historical Champions League data of around 27% is introduced, which makes it possible to split each match’s chances into three possible outcomes. It is an important detail, because draws carry a lot of weight in two-legged ties.

Finally, we cross all possible first-leg and second-leg scenarios, including extra time and penalties (assumed to be 50-50), to obtain the final qualification probability. The final result is not a closed prediction, but a sum of scenarios: a percentage that reflects how many times each team would advance if that tie were played many times. In short, it is a way of turning each team’s 'strength' into real probabilities of reaching the semifinals.

PSG - Liverpool: a coin toss with a slight French edge

With that process, the closest tie is Paris Saint-Germain against Liverpool. PSG start with a 54% chance of qualifying, a minimal edge explained more by context than by clear superiority. Both teams are favorites when they play at home, which creates a tie very sensitive to details: one goal more or less can completely change the scenario.

PSG-Liverpool predictionsMIGUEL ÁNGEL GARCÍA

In the first leg, in Paris, the French have a 46.4% chance of victory, compared with Liverpool’s 26.6% (remember that we set the average draw at 27%), while in the second leg at Anfield the scenario is reversed: 40.1% for the English and 32.9% for PSG. In probability terms, it is the matchup closest to a coin toss.

Real Madrid - Bayern: Munich tips the balance

The balance appears more tilted between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid, though not decisively. The German side reaches a 55.5% chance of qualification versus 44.5% for Madrid. The key is the second leg in Munich. The model shows that the German team has a greater margin at its stadium, which offsets the equality of the first leg.

Real Madrid-Bayern Munich predictionsMIGUEL ÁNGEL GARCÍA

In the first leg at the Bernabéu, Madrid are slightly favored (38.8% to 34.2%), but in the return leg the model is much more emphatic: 47.5% chance of victory for Bayern to only 25.5% for Madrid. That imbalance in the second match is what ends up tipping the tie. Even so, the overall difference remains small, placing the matchup in that middle ground where there is a favorite, but not a dominant one.

Barcelona - Atlético: Blaugrana superiority even at the Metropolitano

The Spanish duel between Barcelona and Atlético de Madrid does show a clearer gap. Barça reach a 62.1% chance of qualification and, most significantly, are favored in both matches according to the model, even at the Metropolitano. In the first leg at Camp Nou, the Blaugrana have a 52.3% chance of victory compared with Atlético’s 20.7%, and in the second leg at the Metropolitano they are still favorites: 39.8% to 33.2%.

Barcelona-Atlético predictionsMIGUEL ÁNGEL GARCÍA

That double condition is what sends their final probability soaring: it does not depend solely on the home-field factor, but on a sustained difference in “strength.” Even so, the weight of the draw and of tight scenarios keeps Atlético with real chances.

Sporting - Arsenal: the most lopsided tie

Finally, the most lopsided matchup is Arsenal against Sporting CP. The English side reaches a 73.1% chance of qualification, being favored even in the first leg in Lisbon (49.6% to 23.4%). In the second leg in London they widen the gap even further: 59.7% chance of victory to only 13.3% for Sporting.

Sporting-Arsenal predictionsMIGUEL ÁNGEL GARCÍA

These are figures that reflect an important gap in level and explain why it is the tie with the least uncertainty of all.

In short, the Elo system draws a quarterfinals picture with two very open ties (PSG-Liverpool and Bayern-Madrid),****one with a clear favorite (Barça-Atlético) and another with an obvious dominator (Arsenal-Sporting). 'Strength' sets the course… but as always in the Champions League, reality still has a lot to say.

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