Raiders set to draft Fernando Mendoza No. 1: The pick that must end decades of draft failure

Fernando Mendoza

IND • QB • #15

Cerebral pocket passers can still win in the NFL -- especially when they have the kind of performance in high-pressure situations that Mendoza possesses.

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That won't be easy. The Raiders can make a case as the NFL's worst franchise this century. They haven't won a playoff game in 23 years and have posted only two winning seasons in that span. If you're under 40, you probably know little to nothing about the Raiders' glory days with John Madden, Tom Flores, Ken Stabler, Marcus Allen, Bo Jackson and company.

But you're all too familiar with the Tuck Rule game, Rich Gannon's five-interception performance -- including two pick-sixes -- in the Super Bowl, Jon Gruden's two infamous exits and countless draft blunders.

Bottom line, they need to finally get this right, and it has to start with this pick.

The Raiders' draft blunders in the 2000s

Most of the Raiders' struggles this century trace back to the NFL Draft, which has become a black hole for a once-proud franchise.

Statistically, they are the worst drafting team in the NFL since 2000. Pro Football Reference has a metric called Approximate Value. Think of it as football's version of WAR. Using that metric, no team has gotten less value from its draft picks than the Las Vegas Raiders.

It's been a comedy of errors, beginning with drafting kicker Sebastian Janikowski (yes, a kicker!) in the first round in 2000. They are still the only franchise to select a kicker in the first round in the common draft era (since 1967). If that wasn't enough, they also drafted a punter (Shane Lechler) in the fifth round that year. They remain the only team in the modern era to take the first kicker and punter off the board in the same draft.

Somehow, that's just the beginning. Look away, Raiders fans. From 2002-07, they made first-round picks like Napoleon Harris, Robert Gallery, Fabian Washington and JaMarcus Russell. The punch line: the four players drafted immediately after those picks -- Ed Reed, Larry Fitzgerald, Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson. Talk about a bad beat four times over.

Those four will all have a Hall of Fame bust someday (three already do), and all the Raiders have to show for their picks is the start of a legendary list of draft busts. Let's not forget Darrius Heyward-Bey, D.J. Hayden, Karl Joseph, Rolando McClain, Gareon Conley, Johnathan Abram, Clelin Ferrell, Damon Arnette, Alex Leatherwood, Henry Ruggs III and Tyree Wilson.

No whiff was worse than JaMarcus Russell, of course -- the Raiders' last No. 1 overall pick back in 2007 -- who is considered one of the biggest busts in draft history. Incredibly, he had the same number of regular-season wins in his career as Tom Brady (199th pick in 2000) had Super Bowl wins (seven). Go figure: a player with all the talent in the world, renowned for his ability to throw 60-70 yards from his knees (Russell), could become an all-time bust, while someone viewed as a nobody became the winningest player of all time (Brady).

Russell, one of the biggest draft busts in NFL history, was one of several ill-fated picks by the Raiders in the 2000s.  Getty Images

Unfortunately for the Raiders, they've had enough brushes with unrealized potential to make a painting. Al Davis' obsession with speed took a dark turn in the 2000s that still haunts the franchise. In his final 10 years as Raiders owner (2001-11), Davis drafted 14 players (many of them first-round selections) who ran a 4.35 or faster 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. That's 10 more than any other team in that span. None of the 14 made a Pro Bowl with the Raiders.

The nightmarish list: Kenyon Rambo, Phillip Buchanon, Justin Fargas, Carlos Francis, Fabian Washington, Stanford Routt, Michael Huff, Tyvon Branch, Darren McFadden, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Louis Murphy, Jacoby Ford, DeMarcus Van Dyke and Taiwan Jones.

Davis took the player with the fastest 40 time in each of his final three drafts (2009-11): Heyward-Bey, Ford and Van Dyke. It was a strategy that more closely resembled what you'd do playing franchise mode in Madden than what actually happens in real life.

Davis' worst bad beat in the draft may have come in 2010, when he traded the pick the Patriots used to draft Rob Gronkowski -- yet another reason Brady needs to repay this franchise.

The blame for the Raiders' draft woes hardly falls on one person, though. They have had 14 different head coaches during the 23-year playoff win drought, the most in the NFL. They've had seven different general managers since Davis' death in 2011. Nobody has figured it out.

The Jon Gruden-Mike Mayock pairing combined for six first-round picks from 2019-21: Johnathan Abram, Josh Jacobs, Clelin Ferrell, Damon Arnette, Henry Ruggs III and Alex Leatherwood. It was an utter disaster outside of Jacobs, as Ferrell, Arnette and Leatherwood were widely considered reaches. The duo had a chance to put its stamp on the team with three first-rounders in 2019, but none of them (Ferrell, Jacobs, Abram) got a second contract with the team.

The Raiders may have nabbed Maxx Crosby in the fourth round that year, but their drafting has been so poor that they've actually had to trade three of their best draft picks this century (Khalil Mack, Amari Cooper and Crosby -- though that trade was ultimately nixed) in rebuilding efforts.

The jury is still out on last year's first-round pick Ashton Jeanty, but it's never an ideal start when you finish last in the NFL in rushing after taking a record-breaking running back with your top pick.

One pick can erase all the bad history

As horrific as the Raiders' draft history has been this century, it could take just one selection to change everything.

Five quarterbacks in NFL history have won a Super Bowl for the team that drafted them first overall: Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Troy Aikman, John Elway and Terry Bradshaw.

If Mendoza eventually joins that company, all of the bad draft history becomes a silver lining that led to the right guy.

And why not Mendoza? He'll face the pressure that comes with being the No. 1 pick, but none of the bad history should matter. He wasn't even alive the last time the Raiders won a playoff game.

"He's a winner, he's accurate, he's tall, intelligent," Raiders coach Klint Kubiak said last month at the NFL owners meetings.

He's drawn comparisons to Matt Ryan thanks to his high football IQ, physical traits, accuracy and clutch ability. He'll be playing in a proven system that has worked with quarterbacks who share similar traits, including Kirk Cousins, Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold. He'll also have the GOAT in his corner.

Mendoza, who was born in Boston, grew up idolizing Tom Brady, the seven-time Super Bowl champion and Raiders minority owner. He spoke candidly about meeting Brady during the pre-draft process.

"He gave me the message that he's going to push me, and he's not going to be all lovey-dovey -- and that if the Raiders draft me, he's going to be a mentor and wants to pour into whatever QB the Raiders have."

"He gave me the message that he's going to push me, and he's not going to be all lovey-dovey – and that if the #Raiders draft me, he's going to be a mentor and wants to pour into whatever QB the Raiders have."

– @fernandomendoza on meeting Tom Brady & watching Kirk Cousins film pic.twitter.com/gMlue6ERXu

— Dan Patrick Show (@dpshow) April 22, 2026

Indeed, there's a lot to like about Mendoza, from his fit with Las Vegas to his championship pedigree and humble beginnings (he was the 134th-ranked QB prospect in the 2022 recruiting class, per 247Sports). Not to mention the competitive drive it took to get across the goal line on that play.

FERNANDO. MENDOZA.

THE PLAY OF A LIFETIME ‼️ pic.twitter.com/g3o5nNNslr

— ESPN (@espn) January 20, 2026

If he doesn't live up to the hype, it won't be due to a lack of effort. "If there were 25 hours in a day, he would spend all 25 hours preparing," Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said this past season.

To his credit, Mendoza has already watched all of Kirk Cousins' film from his time in Minnesota, where he played under Kubiak. That work dates back years, when Mendoza studied Cousins and Sam Darnold in college after drawing comparisons to both.

"I was able to watch all of his clips from the Minnesota Vikings... When I was at Berkeley, I just watched him to learn from his game."

Fernando Mendoza on meeting Kirk Cousins at his Top-30 visit with the Raiders@KirkCousins8 | @heykayadams pic.twitter.com/Gft25cQNLR

— Up & Adams (@UpAndAdamsShow) April 20, 2026

He's also worked with Brian Griese on playing under center, which will be a key transition as he enters the NFL. Indiana operated out of shotgun 97% of the time last season, while Kubiak used it far less (47%) as the Seahawks offensive coordinator in 2025.

How does Fernando Mendoza feel playing under center?

The Indiana QB on reaching out to Brian Griese for guidance in the West Coast system@briangriese | @heykayadams pic.twitter.com/xDMFRdksA2

— Up & Adams (@UpAndAdamsShow) April 20, 2026

He checks a lot of boxes, but Raiders owner Mark Davis offered a sobering reminder last month. "Having the first pick in the draft is exciting because we kind of control the draft -- we get to make the decision on who we're gonna pick. But we've had that position before, and it didn't work out. So there's no magic bullet there, but it's a great opportunity to get a great player, whoever they decide to pick."

To his point, plenty of people were praising JaMarcus Russell in 2007 when the Raiders drafted him. They were likely making a similar case for his success with the franchise.

That's the beauty and the tragedy of the draft. One top pick can become a bust in a string of nightmares, while another can make you forget all the rest.

Which category will Mendoza fall into? It feels like the right player and the right fit at the right time, but nobody really knows. This is the NFL Draft -- a complete crapshoot, a gamble the Raiders are praying pays off so all of this becomes ancient history.

They need to finally get it right and build a championship team around Mendoza. If they do, it'll be another chapter in his fairytale -- this time with a storied franchise.