RAMalytics: CJ Daniels could shake up Rams receiving depth

• Brian Thomas, JR (#4): 148.8
• Troy Franklin (#5): 147.8
• CJ Daniels (#9): 144.6
• Roman Wilson (#11): 144.2
• Jalen Royals (#14): 142.0
• Malik Nabers (#15): 141.0
• Ladd McConkey (#18): 136.8
• Tre Harris (#23): 131.7 That is generally good company to be in. Even more impressive is Daniels’ performance in contested catch situations. If you filter out his first two years in college, he hauled in 26 of 34 passes in such opportunities. This is good for a completion rate of 76.4%. He was in the 80’s for both the 2023 and 2024 seasons and ranked third and seventh in all of college football, respectively.

Early breakout age

Breakout age for receivers is mostly logic from the fantasy football world; however, good fantasy football targets are generally productive football players. This is the methodology and impact from Yahoo Sports:

Breakout Age: the season age when a WR hits 20% of his college team’s production (via “Dominator Rating,” a combo of yards and TDs). Adjusting this stat to account for the talent around a WR helps provide a more accurate outlook…

The theory is based on logic as much as it is analytical proof. If a college WR doesn’t break out until they are in their fourth or fifth season, when they are at a supreme advantage compared to their competition, the transition to the NFL is much more difficult. It’s an extreme comparison, but there’s a reason most one-year starters in high school aren’t being recruited. Players who *do* break out early, when they are at a disadvantage in terms of age, experience, growth and overall development, are much more likely to make that same jump from college to the NFL.

The two main indicators that breakout age will have are related to

1. Late-round WR steals
2. Early-round WR busts You could have used this metric to identify that Puka Nacua would be a draft steal. He found success at age 19.3. What does breakout age tell us about Daniels? He had the third-best breakout age among projected late round receivers in the 2026 class behind De’Zhaun Stribling (selected with the first pick of the second round) and Ja’Kobi Lane (third round). In effect, Daniels was the best of the receivers *truly* taken in the late rounds.

   

   Is breakout age becoming a more known tool for wide receiver evaluation? This could help explain why Stribling and lane were taken earlier than expected. It also leaves Daniels as the top dog among the crop of receivers drafted after the third round. Daniels seems capable of shaking up the Rams’ wide receiver depth. There is playing time up for grabs between he, Jordan Whittington, and Konata Mumpfield.