Ranking the 4 play-in tournament teams Thunder could face in Round 1 of NBA playoffs

Dec 18, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) goes up for a basket beside Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Enjoying the perks of the first seed, the Oklahoma City Thunder will get to kick their feet up this week and relax. For the third straight year, they won't learn their Round 1 opponent until one day before. The play-in tournament has gardened the unique circumstance.

Arguably Adam Silver's best brainchild, the play-in tournament is an extra espresso shot added to your fully caffeinated iced coffee filled with enough sugar to make your dentist squeal. Four teams enter. Only two leave battered and bruised against the top two seeds.

The Thunder will face one of the Phoenix Suns, Portland Trail Blazers, LA Clippers or Golden State Warriors in Round 1 of the 2026 NBA playoffs. The Suns-Trail Blazers loser will face the Clippers-Warriors winner on Friday for the eighth seed.

Here's who the Thunder should root for to advance as Thunder Wire ranks the four play-in tournament teams from easiest to most difficult matchups:

4. Golden State Warriors

Nov 11, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) stands a play against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

A bunch of zombies, the Warriors have been one of the worst teams in the league over the last two months. Stephen Curry missed over two months with a knee injury before his recent return. None of that has mattered, though. They've been stuck in 10th place as the West's bottom five teams have full-on tanked. Considering how depleted their roster is, feels like they'll be a quick out from the play-in alone.

The Warriors are just not a playoff team. The only reason they're here is that the NBA needs 10 teams from each conference for its postseason. It's just been an apocalyptic year filled with brutal season-ending injuries to Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody. And even those healthy have too many variables that need to go their way. Ala Kristaps Porzingis and their bench filled with mostly questionable NBA players.

If the Thunder get the Warriors, it'll be a cool series from a storyline perspective — the old dynasty against the new one. On the decade-year anniversary of the league-altering series between the two, too. But on the court, it should be a one-sided stomping. Even if Curry has a dream series and plays without any knee problems popping up again.

3. Portland Trail Blazers

Dec 31, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward Deni Avdija (8) drives past Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Entering a new broadcast era for the playoffs, this would be a great homage to the infamous 'NBA TV' series. I know the Trail Blazers have played better basketball recently, but the Thunder have had their number for years now. The talent gap is just too wide to make up — especially on offense.

Deni Avdija has enjoyed a breakout season. The first-time All-Star averaged 24.2 points and a ridiculous 9.2 free-throw attempts. But considering his nonexistent playoff experience, something tells me he has the makings of a playoff dropper. Especially if his regular-season whistle doesn't translate over. Not knocking the guy for hacking the system. Getting to the free-throw line is how you graduate from nice player to a bonafide scorer. But a lot of Portland's offense depends on him. That's scary to think about.

The rest of the Trail Blazers are respectable. Jrue Holiday has been a nice addition. Donovan Clingan has had a post-All-Star break surge. But nobody else really has the scoring talent to help Avdija against the league-best defense. This should be a low-scoring series, but the Thunder shouldn't need to stress too much.

2. Phoenix Suns

Jan 4, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) against Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) in the second half at Mortgage Matchup Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

One of the best feel-good stories, the Suns have punched above their weight all year. They exemplify a team being better than the sum of its parts. They've played a physical style of defense. And have even stolen a game from OKC when Devin Booker scored a game-winner. He had an All-NBA-caliber year with 26.1 points and six assists. He's already had a Hall of Fame career filled with playoff experience.

A bunch of other Suns players are also enjoying career years. Dillon Brooks is suddenly a 20-point scorer. He's completely revamped Phoenix's culture after a couple of miserable seasons. Of course, there's the Jalen Green wildcard. He missed most of the season with hamstring problems, but has shown himself to be a dynamic scorer if everything goes right.

Think this matchup has some juicy potential. The Thunder would basically play the cheaper version of themselves. Which is a great compliment to the Suns. That said, the talent discrepancy is too large to ignore. We could see some nail-biters, but OKC should advance pretty easily.

1. LA Clippers

Apr 8, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort (5) defends Los Angeles Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) in the first half at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

I know the Thunder have had the Clippers' number for years now, but Kawhi Leonard still scares me, man. He's easily the best player in the play-in tournament. He averaged a career-best 27.9 points on 50.5% shooting. He has the second-longest active 20-point streak. The 34-year-old has completely resurrected his career after it looked like his knees were cooked a couple of years ago.

And even when it felt like LA's season was over a couple of times, it remains alive. They had one of the greatest in-season turnarounds ever. To go from 6-21 to 42-40 is pretty surreal. That meant they won at such a high clip for several months to get out of the hole they had dug themselves in. So hats off to them. And to continue to get wins despite major roster shakeups adds to the impressiveness. Once James Harden and Ivica Zubac were traded, that felt like when the Clippers waved the white flag. Nope. They learned on the fly.

I really respect LA's fortitude. They've refused to just gift the Thunder another high lottery pick. Darius Garland is a former All-Star who gives them a wildcard factor — even with the toe problems. All that said, though, OKC's youth and athleticism have been a nightmare matchup for them for years. Expect that to continue in the NBA playoffs.

This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: Ranking the 4 play-in tournament teams Thunder could face in NBA playoffs