Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson prediction, pick for UFC Fight Night 274

Raoni Barcelos and Montel Jackson meet on the UFC Fight Night 274 main card Saturday at the Meta APEX in Las Vegas. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.

• Last event's results: 3-2
• UFC main cards, 2026: 36-19

Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson UFC Fight Night 274 preview

At 38, Barcelos (21-5 MMA, 10-4 UFC) is having quite the late-career surge. He's currently on a four-fight winning streak, which includes impressive wins over Cristian Quinonez, Payton Talbott, Cody Garbrandt and Ricky Simon.

Jackson (15-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC) will look to get back on track after a split decision loss to former flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo in October. That result ended a six-fight winning streak, stretching back to 2021.

Raoni Barcelos vs. Montel Jackson UFC Fight Night 274 expert pick, prediction

Serving as a solid matchup at bantamweight is a battle between Montel Jackson and Raoni Barcelos.

Although it's nice to see Jackson showing up to fight more than once every 12 months, I suspect that this bout with Barcelos could be a deceptively tough stylistic fight for "Quik."

Don't get me wrong: Jackson, particularly against aging fighters, is capable of winning with one or two big moments. But if Jackson can't find the perfect shot, we've seen the former prospect freeze up and fail to put together any real process (especially against anyone who can wrestle).

And despite Johnson being touted as 'an Olympic hopeful' when he joined the organization, his wrestling and ground game, in general, have left a lot to be desired, given that grappling appears to be his kryptonite.

Not only is Barcelos the better wrestler and jiu-jitsu player by a decent metric, but the Brazilian is also undefeated at 3-0 against UFC-level southpaws (scoring knockdowns or knockouts in every sample). It feels like a classic trap spot where undeserved hype gets proven right in a "and we learned nothing" sort of first-round finish, but I can't help but side with the better fighter in Barcelos to survive the initial scares and pull away down the stretch.

A finish is absolutely on the table if Barcelos can run roughshod through Jackson's defenses on the ground, but the official pick is for the criminally underrated Brazilian to hand out a vet lesson via unanimous decision.