Rays vs. Guardians picks: Back Cleveland, as rookie Parker Messick has been one of AL's surprise pitchers

The only pitchers who have been more profitable this season have been the Los Angeles Angels' Jose Soriano at plus-$644 and Washington Nationals' Foster Griffin at plus-$570, but both have had one more start than Messick. Soriano also leads the majors with a WAR of 2.6, but Messick is second among pure starting pitchers at 1.6. I say pure starting pitchers because Shohei Ohtani is among leaders, too, at 2.0.

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What is refreshingly different about Messick is that he's not one of those guys who tries to hit triple digits all the time on his fastball, as Messick's generally averages about 93 mph. He uses deception in his delivery (shows his back to the hitter) and pitch movement to fool hitters.

Per The Athletic, Messick throws six pitches: four-seamer (93.5 mph), sinker (92.5 mph), cutter (90.8 mph), change-up (85.2 mph), slider (86.9 mph) and curveball (79 mph). The cutter is a new pitch for him this season. Hitters have posted a 47.1% whiff rate against the change-up. Overall, foes are hitting only .167 against Messick, with both lefties (.188) and righties (.181) flailing.

He wasn't on most sportsbooks' odds boards for AL Rookie of the Year when the season began but is now a +1400 fourth favorite behind White Sox third baseman Munetaka Murakami (+170 and my spring pick), Tigers shortstop Kevin McGonigle (+195) and Guardians outfielder teammate Chase DeLauter (+750).

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You may remember Messick carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning April 16 vs. Baltimore but lost it almost immediately. (Cleveland hasn't had a pitcher throw a no-no since Len Barker tossed a perfect game on May 15, 1981.) He threw a career-high 112 pitches so perhaps not a huge surprise Messick wasn't quite as sharp last time out April 21 vs. Houston, allowing a season-high three runs over five innings. Clearly, the Guardians were wary of his previous pitch total as Messick was limited to 85 in that one.

Messick is from the Tampa area in Plant City and faced the Rays last regular season when they were playing at the Yankees' spring complex in Tampa due to damage to Tropicana Field. Messick largely dominated his hometown team in a win, allowing one run with no walks and four strikeouts in six innings.

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Messick for 5.5 innings, 5.4 strikeouts, 5.3 hits allowed and 1.9 earned runs. DraftKings has him at Over/Under 17.5 outs recorded, 4.5 strikeouts, 5.5 hits, 2.5 earned runs and +140 for a win. That one was tempting.

Tampa Bay counters with veteran lefty Steven Matz (3-1, 4.81 ERA). He was shelled last time out by Cincinnati, allowing three homers and four runs in three innings of a loss.

Note that the winds are blowing out some in Cleveland, but I still feel pretty safe on that alt total as the model has 9.4 total runs scored. And ideally the Guardians aren't batting in B9. Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter.