Renegade profile: 2026 Kentucky Derby odds, post position, history and more to know

Renegade backers have to like that he comes with that late kick in every race. In each of his last four starts, he has passed horses in the lane.

And though his career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 98 is well shy of Further Ado's (106) and a tick below the rest of the best in the Kentucky Derby field, Beyers for closers can be difficult to make since they are at the mercy of the pace up front. Meanwhile Thoro-graph figures say Renegade is one of the fastest in the field and poised to move forward once again on Saturday.

He is not without flaws, however. First, as a late-running closer, he is at the mercy of a fair pace and a clean trip, which are far from guaranteed in the 20-horse Kentucky Derby. Also, trainer Todd Pletcher's Derby record is notoriously poor: two wins from 65 starters, and those two victories came on sloppy tracks. His horses historically have been great at getting to Louisville but struggle once in Louisville.

Even jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who has won the Eclipse Award as the nation's Most Outstanding Jockey five times, has not had success in the race. In nine Derby mounts, his best finish is fourth (Improbable in 2019). Ortiz had the opportunity to ride trainer Brad Cox's three contenders—Commandment, Further Ado and Fulleffort—in the Derby but stuck with Renegade and Pletcher, his longtime compadre.

After Renegade drew the No. 1 post and other horses received buzz after dazzling morning workouts at Churchill Downs, Renegade's odds could rise at FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET. That could make this wicked late runner a potential overlay come Saturday. Claim our jumbo-sized 1/ST BET offer here to get a $500 sign-up bonus:

Post draw analysis

The biggest news from the post draw was that Renegade was assigned the No. 1 post position. No horse has won from the rail since Ferdinand in 1986. But many of the bad trips from the No. 1 hole came with the old starting gate, which was retired in 2019. The new starting gate leaves much more room to the rail than the old gate did. And maybe more importantly, Renegade is a closer who drops to near the back of the pack regardless of post position. The rail draw may actually give the horse and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. a chance to save ground around the first turn. Renegade backers may actually get a better price on Saturday because of the misguided No. 1 post narrative.