Rick's Picks: Here's who will win the Kentucky Derby, I hope

Talk about a wide open Kentucky Derby.

When the starting gate opens at 6:57 p.m. Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, 20 3-year-olds will race in the 152nd running of the Derby, the first leg of the Triple Crown.

The morning line favorite is 4-1, the longest shot is 50-1 and there are 18 other horses at various odds. Based on their past performances, the unpredictability of 3-year-olds running 1 1/4 miles before more than 100,000 screaming fans, probably means half of the field has a legitimate chance of winning the Derby.

So who will win the “Run for the Roses,” America’s most complex and fascinating horse race?

That’s my job today. Here are Rick’s Picks:

First: Chief Wallabee, 8-1Trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado won the 2025 Derby with Sovereignty and I see them repeating this year. If it happens, they will be the first trainer/jockey combo to win consecutive Derby races since trainer Lucien Laurin and jockey Ron Turcotte in 1972 and 1973 with Riva Ridge and Secretariat.

Chief Wallabee finished third in the Florida Derby despite a terrible trip. He was only a half-length behind Commandment and The Puma, two other Derby horses I like.

Mott, a two-time Derby winner, has added blinkers for this race, probably to keep Chief Wallabee focused. Mott has his horse ready.

Second: Commandment, 6-1Commandment won the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 28 at Gulfstream Park by a nose over The Puma.

He broke his maiden Nov. 1 at Churchill Downs, starting his four-race winning streak.

Luis Saez, 0 for 12 in the Derby, will ride Commandment for the first time in the Kentucky Derby, as previous riders Irad Ortiz Jr. (Renegade) and Flavien Prat (Emerging Market) will be on other horses.

Commandment is trained by Brad Cox, 1 for 12 in the Derby, winning with Mandaloun (via disqualification) in 2021.

Third: The Puma, 10-1Trained by Gustavo Delgado, who won the 2023 Derby with Mage, and ridden by Javier Castellano, The Puma lost the most competitive Kentucky Derby prep (Florida Derby) by a nose.

I’m concerned that The Puma has only one win in four starts. He always seems to be close.

The same thing will happen in the Derby.

Fourth: Renegade, 4-1If Renegade, trained by Todd Pletcher, a two-time Derby winner, drew any post position besides the rail, he probably would be my Derby selection.

It’s been 40 years (Ferdinand in 1986) since a horse won the Kentucky Derby from the No. 1 post.

He’s ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr. , the best jockey in the United States. Despite his career success, Ortiz never has finished in the money in nine Derby mounts.

While Pletcher has two Derby wins, he has had 65 Derby starters, a record.

Because of his post position, I see Renegade immediately falling back at the start, then making a late charge down the stretch.