Roma’s late-season form adds uncertainty to the Serie A Champions League race

This is where the frustration of the Juventus draw at the start of March still lingers. Roma were 3-1 up before Federico Gatti struck in stoppage time to make it 3-3. Two extra points from that night would have put Roma in control of their own destiny heading into the final three matches. Instead, they are still relying on a slip from someone above them.

Gasperini’s side looks dangerous again

The Fiorentina performance gave Roma something they badly needed: belief backed by evidence.

Fiorentina midfielder Nicolo Fagioli admitted afterwards that conceding twice in quick succession at the Olimpico made the game almost impossible to recover. That is exactly what Roma have not always done this season. They have had control in matches without always turning it into scoreboard pressure. On Monday, they were ruthless.

Gasperini’s own reaction told the story. He said Roma have improved in attack during the second half of the season, while accepting that they have conceded a little more. He also called the result “great for morale” and made it clear there is “no room for error” across the final three matches.

Donyell Malen has become central to this resurgence. Gasperini has spoken openly about convincing him to play as a center forward, and Roma’s recent attacking output shows the effect. Over the last eight league matches, Roma have scored 15 goals. Only Inter have scored more in that spell.

The Olimpico has become Roma’s anchor

Roma’s strongest argument remains their home form.

They have taken 39 points from 18 home matches, behind only Inter and Napoli in the home table. More importantly, they have conceded just 10 home goals all season, the best home defensive record in Serie A.

That is not a small detail. It explains why teams can look comfortable for 15 minutes at the Olimpico, as Fiorentina did, then suddenly find the game running away from them. Roma are not just feeding off atmosphere. They are using it to squeeze opponents, win second balls and turn defensive structure into attacking momentum.

The away record is less convincing. Roma have taken 25 points from 17 away matches and lost eight times on the road. That is why an upcoming trip to Parma feels so important. It is not just another fixture. It is a test of whether Roma can carry the authority of the Olimpico into a match where a misstep would carry grave consequences.

The race is now about nerve as much as quality

Juventus have the best recent defensive form in the league, conceding only two goals in their last eight matches. Milan, by contrast, have taken only 10 points from their last eight and scored just five goals in that run. Roma sit somewhere between those two stories: not flawless, but dangerous enough to worry everyone above them.

The uncertainty around the race is now being reflected beyond the Serie A top four odds. Roma are sitting around +150 to secure a top-four finish, while Juventus remain shorter at roughly -250 despite their recent inconsistency. That gap still reflects Roma’s position outside the Champions League places, but the closing weeks have started to change perceptions around the race.

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Roma know the chance is there

There is still danger in the optimism. Roma have already seen how quickly a match can change, and that Juventus equalizer remains the clearest warning. One lapse can alter the table. One missed chance can define a season.

But this is also the point of the campaign where momentum starts to feel like belief. Gasperini has players returning, there is genuine unity in the side, Malen looks increasingly influential and Roma’s defensive base remains one of the strongest in Italy.

Three matches remain. Roma do not have full control, but they do have a path. For a team that looked in danger of slipping away from the Champions League conversation, that alone is enough to make the final weeks feel alive.