Rousey vs Carano preview, Netflix MMA predictions: Backyard brawls, puny humans, and reefer madness

Sometimes, those are the fighters who give you the most bang for your buck.

In this case, the only bucks you’ll need to part with are the ones already being sacrificed for your Netflix subscription. The streaming giant is testing the MMA waters with “Rousey vs. Carano” on May 16 at Intuit Dome in Los Angeles and could order a second round of action if “Rowdy” can reach these numbers.

Does she still have the goods? Let’s talk about it.

UFC CEO Dana White has long insisted that Ronda Rousey is the biggest star that UFC ever had, though you would expect that kind of praise from a “good fucking friend” like White. This raises an interesting question and one that has been debated for years: does UFC make the stars, or do the stars make UFC? It’s been difficult to find out, thanks to the ironclad contracts from UFC legal. By the time a top star is available to compete outside the Octagon, they’re usually too old or too washed up for anyone to care.

Nate Diaz was supposedly a “Top 5 PPV draw” for UFC, even without Conor McGregor, but still managed to bankrupt Fanmio with his stillborn PPV fight against Jorge Masvidal back in 2024. The aforementioned Ngannou was shipped to PFL, fought one time, and got everyone involved with his signing fired from the company.

Rousey is helped by the fact that her comeback is on Netflix and tops a fight card that has enough recognizable names to warrant a curiosity viewing. That said, I hope matchmakers are ashamed of themselves for booking Ngannou against Philipe Lins, a former light heavyweight who turns 41 in August. Robelis Despaigne, a knockout artist with an Olympic bronze medal, is being wasted on the 42 year-old Junior dos Santos. Where are all the moral watchdogs who continually pissed on Jake Paul for cherrypicking older and smaller boxers?

Y’all are real quiet right now.

Anyway, let’s get back to the headlining attraction who ran away from MMA after getting knocked out by a power-punching Brazilian. I’m referring to Gina Carano, who doesn’t get nearly the same criticism as Rousey despite a similar exit strategy. That’s because Rousey, who is without question an amazing athlete and trailblazer for women’s MMA, spent most of her career acting like a complete asshole.

Perhaps booking her against America’s sweetheart is a subtle way of using the old pro wrestling strategy of hero versus villain. I mean, nobody expects Carano to win, right? The former American Gladiator and unlikely movie star is now 44 and has not competed since 2009. In addition, the caliber of competition she was facing in Strikeforce, Cyborg notwithstanding, was nowhere near the level of Rousey — even a Rousey 10 years removed from the sport.

Carano’s last victory came over Kelly Kobold-Schmitz in late 2008, the card that killed EliteXC.

I would argue the best matched fight on the entire “Rousey vs. Carano” card is Diaz vs. Perry, two brain-dead, pot-smoking zombies who will slug each other in the face, exchange taunts (middle fingers, mean mugs, etc.), and bleed profusely as the crowd roars. That’s not MMA, that’s bar fighting, but isn’t that what most fans want? They want to watch Ngannou punt Lins into the fourth row and they want to see Diaz and Perry bathed in blood.

That’s why you hear a cacophony of boos and jeers every time a “crotch sniffer” shoots for a takedown.

On a much brighter note, I’m excited to see Salahdine Parnasse compete against Kenny Cross in the middle of the main card. If you’re a UFC fanboy, and there’s no reason not to be since the only competition is PFL and ONE (how the hell do they stay in business?), you might not be familiar with Parnasse, the 28 year-old Frenchman who terrorized the ranks of KSW in Poland and seems destined for UFC at some point in the very near future.

Check out our dedicated preview of the 22-2 lightweight right here.

Cross you may remember from Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2020, where he defeated Kevin Syler by decision but failed to secure a UFC contract. In the years that followed, “The Boss” racked up a 6-1 record with three finishes, but his lone loss during that span — a 2023 submission to Killys Mota under the Bellator MMA banner — sticks out like a sore thumb. The best way for Cross to regain some of his earlier momentum is to upset Parnasse.

With that in mind, let’s pick our main card winners.

145 lbs.: “Rowdy” Ronda Rousey (12-2) vs. Gina “Conviction” Carano (7-1)

Ronda Rousey finally got her dream fight against Gina Carano and didn’t have to fight her at light heavyweight in someone’s backyard. I don’t really buy all that crap about “Rowdy” fighting her idol, I think this is a thinly-veiled attempt to finish her career in the win column against an opponent she knows she can beat. Carano is a tough fighter and a solid brawler but does not have the skill, the experience, or the athleticism to defeat Rousey. I’m sure “Conviction” will land a few good shots and try her damndest, but without the boxing acumen of Holly Holm or the knockout power of Amanda Nunes, she won’t be able to keep the Olympian at bay. Sooner or later, this fight is going to the floor and from there, it’s academic.

Rousey: -600
Carano: +425

Prediction: Rousey def. Carano by submission

170 lbs.: Nate Diaz (21-13) vs. “Platinum” Mike Perry (14-8)

This is going to be a fun fight but the winner all depends on how well Diaz uses his height and reach. Perry was a solid offensive wrestler in his UFC days but I don’t think the ground is a place he wants to go with Diaz — a lesson Conor McGregor learned the hard way at UFC 196. Besides, once you’re crowned “The King of Violence” you’re kinda stuck with that designation. Anything less than all-out war would be viewed in the same light as this not-so-baddest win at UFC 326. Diaz is the better boxer, which isn’t saying much after watching him get tooled by Jake Paul in summer 2023, but Perry is more savage in his attacks. We can only hope that Diaz, susceptible to cuts like his brother Nick, does not get busted open before they can cross the finish line.

Diaz: +165
Perry: -190

Prediction: Diaz def. Perry by unanimous decision

265 lbs.: Francis “The Predator” Ngannou (18-3) vs. Philipe “Monstro” Lins (18-5)

Philipe Lins, a former light heavyweight, has not fought in over two years and will jump off the couch to throw hands with one of the most devastating punchers in the history of the heavyweight division. Lins is also 40 years old and got knocked out by Tanner Boser at UFC Vegas 4. How long this fight lasts all depends on how aggressive Ngannou plans to be once the bell rings in the “City of Angels.” He’ll either decapitate Lins with a bulldozer bum-rush like he did against Jairzinho Rozenstruik at UFC 249, or take “Monstro” down and pound him into dust like he did against Renan Ferreira at PFL: “Battle of the Giants.” Realistically, “The Predator” can do whatever he wants in this fight for the simple reason that the undersized Lins has no way to stop him.

Ngannou: -1400
Lins: +800

Prediction: Ngannou def. Lins by knockout

145 lbs.: Salahdine Parnasse (22-2) vs. Kenny “The Boss” Cross (17-4)

Parnasse is a versatile fighter who can grapple just as well as he can strike. While he’s compiled a fantastic record, he’s also been fighting lower level competition in KSW and has yet to prove himself on the big stage. To wit, I don’t think anyone is impressed by a victory over Hyram Rodriguez, who boasts 43 professional losses. Parnasse will be at a height and reach disadvantage for this contest so his movement will be key, as will his grappling. Cross has been submitted in all four of his losses, giving the Frenchman a pretty clear path to victory. I don’t want to just overlook “The Boss” because the MMA community has a shiny new toy, he’s a tough out for any competitor and like Parnasse, he’s well rounded and experienced. If Diaz and Perry weren’t already fighting on this card, you could make an argument for Parnasse vs. Cross being an early contender for “Fight of the Night.”

Parnasse: -1800
Cross: +900

Prediction: Parnasse def. Cross by unanimous decision

265 lbs.: Junior “Cigano” dos Santos (23-10) vs. Robelis “Bad Boy” Despaigne (5-2)

Robelis Despaigne has the ground game of a newborn calf, which is why he was defeated by the unheralded Austen Lane at UFC Vegas 99. That said, he can knockout anyone on the planet, including former UFC heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos. The outcome of this fight will depend on how badly “Cigano” wants to win. The Brazilian is a good boxer with knockout power, but why risk it? Dos Santos used his wrestling in victories over Shane Carwin, Mark Hunt, and Stipe Miocic, among others, and I would expect him to use it here, as well. It’s up to the “Bad Boy” — who is coming off seven straight wins with six knockouts in Karate Combat — to land the kill shot before Dos Santos can drag this fight to the floor, assuming he wants to bring it there at all. I’m not sure why he wouldn’t; but then again, Sean Strickland also decided he was a good enough striker to stand with Alex Pereira, and we all know how that went.

Dos Santos: -350
Despaigne: +285

Prediction: Dos Santos def. Despaigne by technical knockout

Here’s a bonus quote from MVP co-founder Nakisa Bidarian:

Remember kids, if “Rousey vs. Carano” flops, it’s all your fault.